Member Info for extrader

MM : 'There are rumbles'

Eddsy : 'I love a good rumble' (smiley).

Comment :

I prefer a fumble followed by a tumble, myself - 'Make love, not war'.

Must learn to be humble and not bumble over the jumble of current news.

And certainly never mumble when asked to provide one's source(s).

That's a justified grumble.

Anyhoo, THIS rumble's not in the jungle, but in the Big Apple :

Gabrielle Debinski

.."Key Gulf-Trump business deals to watch

On Saturday night, President-elect Donald Trump attended an Ultimate Fighting Championship at Madison Square Garden in New York City flanked by loyalists and likely incoming administration officials, including Elon Musk. ALSO AT HIS SIDE WAS HEAD OF SAUDI'S PUBLIC INVESTMENT FUND, YASIR ALRUMAYYAN, WHO OVERSEAS THE FUND'S ESTIMATED $ 930 BILLION AND IS KNOWN TO HAVE A CLOSE RELATIONSHIP WITH TRUMP.

The weekend display reinforces Trump’s ROBUST PERSONAL TIES IN THE GULF and his long track record of dealmaking in the region.

Background: In 2017, Trump’s first overseas trip as US president started in Saudi Arabia and produced a $110 billion arms sale with the kingdom. Meanwhile, six months after leaving the White House in 2021, Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, who could play an advisory role in the incoming administration, reaped a $2 billion investment from a fund steered by the Saudi crown prince.

Looking ahead: Many analysts say that Trump’s second term could focus similarly on TIES IN THE GULF, including a possible revival of F-35 fighter JET SALES to the United Arab Emirates as well as an expansion of Trump’s personal business empire. This year, the Trump Organization inked THREE NEW GULF REAL ESTATE DEALS in collaboration with Saudi developer Dar Global, the first of which was a $500 million hotel and golf complex in 0MAN, scheduled to open in December 2028. There are also plans to build Trump Towers in JEDDAH and DUBAI, per reports...."

'Follow the money'.

GLA and ATB

I prefer a fumble followed by a tumble, myself - 'Make love, not war'.

Must learn to be humble and not bumble over the jumble of current news.

And certainly never mumble when asked to provide one's source(s).

That's a justified grumble.

Anyhoo, THIS rumble's not in the jungle, but in the Big Apple :

Gabrielle Debinski

.."Key Gulf-Trump business deals to watch

On Saturday night, President-elect Donald Trump attended an Ultimate Fighting Championship at Madison Square Garden in New York City flanked by loyalists and likely incoming administration officials, including Elon Musk. ALSO AT HIS SIDE WAS HEAD OF SAUDI'S PUBLIC INVESTMENT FUND, YASIR ALRUMAYYAN, WHO OVERSEAS THE FUND'S ESTIMATED $ 930 BILLION AND IS KNOWN TO HAVE A CLOSE RELATIONSHIP WITH TRUMP.

The weekend display reinforces Trump’s ROBUST PERSONAL TIES IN THE GULF and his long track record of dealmaking in the region.

Background: In 2017, Trump’s first overseas trip as US president started in Saudi Arabia and produced a $110 billion arms sale with the kingdom. Meanwhile, six months after leaving the White House in 2021, Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, who could play an advisory role in the incoming administration, reaped a $2 billion investment from a fund steered by the Saudi crown prince.

Looking ahead: Many analysts say that Trump’s second term could focus similarly on TIES IN THE GULF, including a possible revival of F-35 fighter JET SALES to the United Arab Emirates as well as an expansion of Trump’s personal business empire. This year, the Trump Organization inked THREE NEW GULF REAL ESTATE DEALS in collaboration with Saudi developer Dar Global, the first of which was a $500 million hotel and golf complex in 0MAN, scheduled to open in December 2028. There are also plans to build Trump Towers in JEDDAH and DUBAI, per reports...."

'Follow the money'.

GLA and ATB

From depeches today

"IFC opens an office in Brazzaville, senior rep visits.

During his stay in Brazzaville, Sergio Pimenta will hold talks with several members of the government, including the Prime Minister, Anatole Collinet Makosso, and the Minister for Planning, Ingrid Olga Ghislaine Ebouka-Babackas, on strategic issues such as investment in critical infrastructure, the development of priority sectors, support for small and medium-sized enterprises and women's entrepreneurship, as well as the launch of a study on the strategic analysis of the Congolese private sector (CPSD).

A member of the World Bank Group, IFC is the world's leading development institution focused on the private sector in emerging markets. The financial institution uses its capital, expertise and influence to create markets and opportunities in more than one hundred countries. In 2023, it committed a record $43.7 billion to support private companies and f inancial institutions in developing economies..."

Interesting timing.

GLA

From today's depeche :

An article describing the issues Brazzaville and other cities face re waste management co Averda, that went on strike for non-payment of dues.

Averda's contract 'will be terminated at year-end' and the Government is looking for a new contractor.

.."the government has instructed the town halls of Brazzaville and Pointe-Noire to take over the sanitation and waste collection service, involving the police force because of its expertise in civil engineering. THIS IS UNTIL A NEW PARTNER SPECIALISING IN THIS FIELD CAN BE FOUND...."

Shome mishtake, Shirley ?

From my post yesterday, per Africa Intelligence :

.."(2) Cash-strapped Congo switches sanitation firms

The Lebanese operator's Congolese subsidiary, Averda, which provided waste collection services in Brazzaville and Pointe-Noire, will cease trading at the end of December. The government has ALREADY signed a contract with TURKISH company ALBAYRAK..]

Published on 29/10/2024 at 05:40 GMT"

The future that's already happened !

'Africa time' takes on a whole new meaning...

;->

From today's depeche :

An article describing the issues Brazzaville and other cities face re waste management co Averda, that went on strike for non-payment of dues.

Averda's contract 'will be terminated at year-end' and the Government is looking for a new contractor.

.."the government has instructed the town halls of Brazzaville and Pointe-Noire to take over the sanitation and waste collection service, involving the police force because of its expertise in civil engineering. THIS IS UNTIL A NEW PARTNER SPECIALISING IN THIS FIELD CAN BE FOUND...."

Shome mishtake, Shirley ?

From my post yesterday, per Africa Intelligence :

.."(2) Cash-strapped Congo switches sanitation firms

The Lebanese operator's Congolese subsidiary, Averda, which provided waste collection services in Brazzaville and Pointe-Noire, will cease trading at the end of December. The government has ALREADY signed a contract with TURKISH company ALBAYRAK..]

Published on 29/10/2024 at 05:40 GMT"

The future that's already happened !

'Africa time' takes on a whole new meaning...

;->

...has these snippets :

(1) Spotlight | Congo Françoise Joly bestows her favours on Bayegan …

Nov 5, 2024 · Run by ERDOGAN'S FRIEND Fatih Gülsün, Ulsan was granted the right to operate the Mayoko iron ore mine in the south-western department of Niari in mid-August.

(2) Cash-strapped Congo switches sanitation firms

The Lebanese operator's Congolese subsidiary, Averda, which provided waste collection services in Brazzaville and Pointe-Noire, will cease trading at the end of December. The government has already signed a contract with TURKISH company ALBAYRAK..]

Published on 29/10/2024 at 05:40 GMT

(3) Inner circles | Guinea

ALBAYRAK leads Erdogan's economic and diplomatic drive in Conakry

All-powerful under Alpha Condé, the Turkish group ALBAYRAK is continuing to hold its own under the junta despite some tensions. Several figures are keeping the dialogue going between Mamadi Doumbouya and the conglomerate, which has very CLOSE TIES TO THE TURKISH PRESIDENT.

LogoSubscribers only Politics, Business, Diplomacy 26.05.2023

(4) Congo

Sassou's enigmatic adviser, rising star Françoise Joly, helps cement BRAZZAVILLE-ANKARA ties

President Denis Sassou Nguesso's international affairs adviser, on matters such as Russia and the UAE, partly organised his Turkish holiday. Her rising influence has been the subject of much speculation in Brazzaville and led to a new equilibrium within his first circle.

LogoSubscribers only Politics 09.09.2022

GLA

The ecomatin link also tells us :

..." According to recent data from the ministry, mining exports generated less than 10 billion CFA francs in revenue, or 1% of total export earnings in 2021, compared with 91 billion CFA francs for its direct neighbour, the DRC, DESPITE [Ed.: C-B's] LARGE RESERVES OF POTASH AND IRON ORE...."

before touching on Sundance and LuYuan

.."At that time, a number of investments were made to boost the country's mining sector, such as the Mont Nabemba iron ore deposit, which had proven reserves of 517 million tonnes. The company operating it [Congo Iron, a subsidiary of Australian Sundance Resources] had declared investments of 400 million dollars, around 262 billion Fcfa, in the development of phase one of the project.

Another project to exploit a potash deposit in the village of Mboukoumassi, in the department of Kouilou, was announced for 2022, thanks to an investment of 192 billion CFA francs by the State and the Chinese company Luyuan. NO ACTION HAS BEEN TAKEN SINCE THEN..."

Interestingly, no mention of KP2 or Kore Potash, which have both been progressing their projects, see the KP2 board and

https://www.theafricareport.com/346728/patrice-motsepe-invests-his-billions-in-congo-mega-phosphate-project/

for details

Pure speculation on my part : no orthodox in-country mining deal (= Project Finance) in living memory has progressed sufficiently far along 'conventional' commercial tracks to get to implementation/documentation of the 10% carried interest stage, it's always been handled privately, 'off-book' etc.

That level of corruption/opacity is no longer acceptable/tenable *- the West say they won't (for ESG reasons. GLEN is likely particularly sensitive on this score.) and China is probably no longer willing (Bridge and Rail / FOCAC experience) - and this has become a logjam, so C-B has belatedly decided to make at least token compliance with the regs.

* the Gulf States generally , UAE having been exposed re the DRC in the past**, are probably alive to the issue also.

** https://www.pplaaf.org/cases/the-banana-port-papers.html

The creation of FIMC MAY be the signal that C-B is finally 'open for business' on 'bankable' terms, that COULD - in short order - unlock KP2, Ulsan, LuYuan, Kore Potash and ZIOC...and help settle the Sundance impasse.

AFAICS, lots to play for...and the prospect of some meaningful newsflow in the next few weeks and months.

Buses, eh?

Here's hoping.

GLA and ATB

Addendum :

There's also a bit more flavour re the proposed holdingco for the state's investments/carried interests in mining firms, the Fonds d'Investissement Minier du Congo (FIMC), (hat tip Eddsy) which.." has an initial capital of FCFA 10m (€15,245), and is run by President Denis Sassou-Nguesso's chargé de mission, Hassane Diabate .."

here

hxxps://ecomatin.net/secteur-minier-le-congo-en-quete-de-partenaires-pour-le-lancement-dun-fonds-dinvestissement-minier

which adds 3 more mining interests to the mix :

(1).." an MoU with Algerian counterpart Mohamed Arkab on 14 November to strengthen technical cooperation in the fields of mining exploration and the sustainable management of natural resources. The two countries will develop joint projects to exploit their mineral resources, in particular gold, rare minerals and marble;

(2) ... a partnership agreement with the Chinese company China Gold to explore and exploit Congolese gold.. and

(3).. in August 2024, the Turkish company Ulsan Mining signed a mining agreement to exploit the Mayoko-Moussondji iron ore deposit for 25 years, FORMERLY MANAGED by the Sapro group, owned by Brazzaville tycoon Paul Obambi..."

Obambi is widely considered a proxy for Big Den.

More details/credibility re FIMC's bona fides (ie not a private initiative) here

https://www.finances.gouv.cg/fr/node/4484

.."THE CONGOLESE GOVERNMENT AND THE TURKISH COMPANY ULSAN MINING CONGO SIGN AN IRON MINING AGREEMENT IN MAYOKO

12 August, 2024

On Monday, August 12, 2024, in Brazzaville, the Congolese GOVERNMENT, represented by the Minister of State, Minister of MINING Industries and Geology, Mr. Pierre OBA, and his colleagues in charge of the ECONOMY AND FINANCE, Mr. Jean-Baptiste ONDAYE, and of TRANSPORT, CIVIL AVIATION AND MERCHANT NAVY, Mr. Honoré SAYI, and the Turkish company Ulsan Mining Congo... signed a mining agreement in the district of Mayoko...

..Ulsan Mining Congo has obtained from the Congolese State an exploitation permit for this deposit for a period of 25 years. This exploitation concerns the iron deposit called Mayoko-Moussondji. This is a WORLD CLASS IRON MINE, which the Republic of Congo has....

..the investment already made on the site by the company Ulsan Mining Congo is 125 million US dollars....

..the overall projected investment of this project is estimated at 15 billion dollars[sic] Because it includes the actual exploitation works of the MINE; the RAILWAY; and the MINERAL PORT in Pointe-Noire. ..."

There's a question mark over Mayoko's ore quality; I don't know whether 'our' slurry pipeline could accept Mayoko ore (the railway rehab alternative doesn't appear cost-effective) for admixing.....but the Turks are potentially a credible and capable alternative/additional Strategic Partner...and Ulsan itself would bring another mine to the FIMC portfolio.

And the numbers ($ 15 billion) speak to an integrated project(s).

Looks fairly encouraging to me.

GLA and ATB

Milei, the gift that keeps on giving...

hxxps://www.batimes.com.ar/news/economy/mileis-meeting-with-xi-signals-hes-come-full-circle-on-china.phtml

GLA

.."When will they and ZIOC break cover?.."

My guess is that there will be 'developments' on or before the 5th December, given two unusual factors - (1) a mid-morning Results + AGM RNS (1133); and (2) an unconscionable AGM start time of 0800.

The first suggests something urgent; the second suggests EITHER (a) bad news (we don't want any shareholders present) or (b) we've got urgent BoD work (traditionally immediately post AGM) to deal with that day. Which is a Thursday*

* ZIOC appear to give the minimum 20-21 days notice, consistent with a Tues or Thursday; Thurs is the day before the M East weekend, which may or may not be relevant.

There's also this :

- the 'uneventful' 25 Nov 2021 equiv RNS was announced @ 0700 for Friday 17 Dec @ 0900;

- the 4 Nov 2022 equiv RNS was announced @ 1740 for Thursday 24 NOVEMBER @ 1500;

The Acquisition RNS was released 23 November, the day before the AGM.

- the 27 Nov 2023 equiv RNS was announced @ 1700 for Tuesday 19 December @ 1000;

This RNS had been preceded by the 7th Nov Feasibility Study update.

The AGM itself was preceded by the CEO appointment RNS on 14th Dec.

We're post US election result clarity; pre inauguration; and have imminent news on long-delayed KP2 project materialisation; around Loango SEZ adjacent PN ; and reports of some kind of basic state (?) holding company for RoC mining stakes- maybe KP2; ZIOC; and even (as speculated by others) some workaround for the 'settlement' due re Sundance Resources expropriated assets...

There may be other calendar issues in C-B, M East or China / elsewhere that have come into play - suggestions welcome!

Anyway, that's my working hypothesis atm.

Feel free to quibble / correct/ refute, preferably with arguments.

GLA and ATB

Helpful as ever.

I'm surprised that your coterie of ' winners' haven't rushed to confirm your claim(s) - this and other earlier claims of an 'inside track' - or will it turn out to be a case of the royal 'we'?

'Eddsy' doesn't count, for obvious reasons.

..."We know from 1-on-1's...."

C'mon, what does THAT mean ?

What a journalist or newspaper might describe as 'a well- informed source' or 'someone familiar with the situation' or an 'inside source' or what?

The argument you make is based on a pretty tenuous foundation otherwise.

AFAICS

ATB

The argument re progressing FEED under the guise of 'due diligence' and hence not necessarily reportable is attractive.

However, MK has guided the process as taking 18 months, IIRC.

I'm not sure how much that timeline can be accelerated and still meet a serious investor's comfort level requirement ?

Though a competitive situation would certainly sharpen pencils!

How substantive are the reports of 'behind the scenes progress?'

And what do your inside sources have to say re the AGM start being at 0800 on Thursday the 5th December?

I would have made it to last year's 10 am AGM but there was a 'body on track' train delay. An 0800 start ths year is bizarre....and could be either good news or bad.

Ho hum.

GLA

Was 420m last AGM...

but maybe more relevant this year.

'Here's hoping', to paraphrase a wellknown poster!

GLA

Was 420m last AGM...

but maybe more relevant this year.

'Here's hoping', to paraphrase a wellknown poster!

GLA

Hi beardozer

I'm away from t'internet atm and feel release time of this RNS is atypical.

Could you scroll back and share if this breaks the norm, pls?

What with Sundance, newco, US election watershed etc. there seem to be a lot of moving parts, MAYBE suggestive of something rushed on ZIOC's side.

Which might incidentally explain the reported SNAFU re results non-appearance on website?

TIA and ATB

See this earlier report from the same source :

https://www.africaintelligence.com/central-africa/2021/08/20/mines-minister-and-sassou-favourite-pierre-oba-besieged-by-irate-investors,109686074-ar2

.."The seeking of around $40bn from the Congolese state by four companies in compensation for the recent cancellation of their iron mining permits has placed the country's mining industry's movers and shakers in the spotlight, not least the powerful minister of mines Pierre Oba who is an essential cog in President Denis Sassou Nguesso's machine. ..."

it comes up in a search for Odilon Obami, described then as a Big Den favourite...

The full article may say more.

HTH

I'm not surprised.

So's Oba

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Oba

It's the 'Mbochi' mafia...

;-<

It's

See this earlier report from the same source :

https://www.africaintelligence.com/central-africa/2021/08/20/mines-minister-and-sassou-favourite-pierre-oba-besieged-by-irate-investors,109686074-ar2

.."The seeking of around $40bn from the Congolese state by four companies in compensation for the recent cancellation of their iron mining permits has placed the country's mining industry's movers and shakers in the spotlight, not least the powerful minister of mines Pierre Oba who is an essential cog in President Denis Sassou Nguesso's machine. ..."

it comes up in a search for Odilon Obami, described then as a Big Den favourite...

The full article may say more.

HTH

C-B ddn't come up by 31st October with whatever settlement terms they'd offered/agreed with Sundance, so as far as Sundance is concerned, litigation resumes/continues.

See Sundance Resources' website.

ATB