Member Info for extrader

Hi Vet10,

I couldn't access the article from AL-Monitor, if that was your source.

AD Ports has an MoU with CMEC, who are the hydropower solution for 'our' mine...

Next C-B Presidential elections are due 2026, AIUI. Big Den's not eligible, technically...

Mind you, he' s just been appointed co-Chair of FOCAC for 2 years.

Ho hum.

Belay that ! FYE is extended June 2024, with results to be reported by end October.

A different timing issue, but still an issue, it seems to me.

GLA

Re the recent Kuwait contract :

.."The award is subject only to completion of the formal contract and associated performance bond which are now underway and expected to be completed prior to the end of next month, with implementation commencing immediately thereafter..."

So, paperwork and PB hoped for before end November.

This doesn't leave much time for much delivery and invoicing prior to FYE 2024, AIUI.

And it straddles the upcoming US election tussle....and the eventual Israeli response to Iran's (poxy/proxy) attacks....and China's ongoing demarches in the S China Sea...

I don't think we're out of the woods yet.

GLA

Lots of things 'on hold' atm, it seems. Maybe 'awaiting events'...

(1) Biden cancels trip to Africa, seems to prefer to spend time undermining Kamala;

https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/06/politics/harris-biden-breaks/index.html

(2) MBS postpones decision to join BRICS, ducks upcoming session. King Salman ailing (again) ?

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2024-10-10/saudis-mbs-will-not-attend-russias-brics-summit

(3) C-B neighbour Cameroon imposes radio silence;

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/cameroon-bans-any-talk-about-91-year-old-president-biyas-health-2024-10-11/

(4) China's economic stimulus measures so far a 'nothingburger'

https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/chinas-stock-market-bazooka-is-yet-fire-podcast-2024-10-10/

(5) Burford (BUR's) $ 16 Bn claim agst Argentina has been muddied by US Govt saying it may wish to comment on potential asset seizure :

https://buenosairesherald.com/politics/judiciary/us-government-hints-at-potential-involvement-in-ypf-expropriation-case

.."“The Government respectfully requests that the Court reserve decision on the pending motion for an injunction and turnover until the United States has had an opportunity to submit any such statement of interest,” said the letter. The U.S. administration will inform the Court of its potential participation in the case no later than November 6, the letter said. That is one day after the U.S. presidential elections..."

(6) MK's timeline for FEED (" during Q3") has- meanwhile- slipped somewhat.

Perhaps to be expected, in the wider scheme of things....

GLA

Hat tip to meanreverter

Edison report valuing OCN at 2275p:

Https://www.edisongroup.com/research/confirmation-of-interest-in-wilson-sons-holding/34040/?j=271940&sfmc_sub=12772501&l=715_HTML&u=8142925&mid=536001663&jb=1

GLA

Not something that's got much airtime in the Western press (that I see, at least) :

The Vatican has announced 7 new sins.

.."The seven new sins presented at the ceremony are:

Sin against peace

Sin against creation, indigenous peoples and migrants

The sin of abuse

The sin against women, the family and young people

The sin of using doctrine as stones to throw at others

The sin against poverty

The sin against synodality (= 'fraternal collaboration'), the lack of listening, communion and

participation of all."

Don't say you weren't warned.

GLA

Yes.

Iron ore is the (African ?) elephant in the room.....

AFAICS.

GLA

And, perhaps more topically, here's what Wilt himself had to say a few days ago...

https://resourcingtomorrow.com/news/articles/no-flagging-for-maaden-and-its-ceo

Ma’aden CEO Bob Wilt says there is “no slow-down in mining spending at all” in Saudi Arabia and that there are enough appealing projects for Manara Minerals to assess to give him confidence it can invest up to US$15 billion of growth spending by the end of the decade.

Wilt said in London the ex-Saudi minerals investment vehicle formed last year by Ma’aden and the Kingdom’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) was not interested in “splashing money around the world” but had its eye on “several good projects” and remained focused on growing its global exposure to iron ore, lithium, copper and nickel......

“I don't think people should expect a splashy announcement [from Manara] every six months,” he said.

“I think they should expect an announcement every year.

“We have got intense due diligence going on several good projects. But we’re looking at risk management, we’re looking at returns, we’re looking at dividends; we’re looking at a lot of things.

“We’re taking a long-term view on what we need for midstream and downstream development because the purpose of Manara is not an investment fund, it is to secure offtake in critical minerals.”

GLA

Hi alwayshoping,

Thanks for the heads-up ! I couldn't get that link to work, but this came up with something similar :

https://www.brecorder.com/news/40326413

Apart from the 'number of mining initiatives' reference, Faleh also outlined Saudi's overall scale of ambitions :

.."Addressing the business forum, he said that Saudi Arabia is the largest construction site in the world and “make no mistake about it”.

“We will be in the next few years awarding construction and material procurement contracts worth about $1.8 trillion. The value of construction and E&P procurement will reach about $200 billion annually year after year..."

That's a lorra, lorra steel, as Cilla Black might say...

GLA

And, perhaps more topically, here's what Wilt himself had to say a few days ago...

https://resourcingtomorrow.com/news/articles/no-flagging-for-maaden-and-its-ceo

Ma’aden CEO Bob Wilt says there is “no slow-down in mining spending at all” in Saudi Arabia and that there are enough appealing projects for Manara Minerals to assess to give him confidence it can invest up to US$15 billion of growth spending by the end of the decade.

Wilt said in London the ex-Saudi minerals investment vehicle formed last year by Ma’aden and the Kingdom’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) was not interested in “splashing money around the world” but had its eye on “several good projects” and remained focused on growing its global exposure to iron ore, lithium, copper and nickel......

“I don't think people should expect a splashy announcement [from Manara] every six months,” he said.

“I think they should expect an announcement every year.

“We have got intense due diligence going on several good projects. But we’re looking at risk management, we’re looking at returns, we’re looking at dividends; we’re looking at a lot of things.

“We’re taking a long-term view on what we need for midstream and downstream development because the purpose of Manara is not an investment fund, it is to secure offtake in critical minerals.”

GLA

Hi alwayshoping,

Thanks for the heads-up ! I couldn't get that link to work, but this came up with something similar :

https://www.brecorder.com/news/40326413

Apart from the 'number of mining initiatives' reference, Faleh also outlined Saudi's overall scale of ambitions :

.."Addressing the business forum, he said that Saudi Arabia is the largest construction site in the world and “make no mistake about it”.

“We will be in the next few years awarding construction and material procurement contracts worth about $1.8 trillion. The value of construction and E&P procurement will reach about $200 billion annually year after year..."

That's a lorra, lorra steel, as Cilla Black might say...

GLA

(1) C-B to get aircraft maintenance facility :

.."The Congo will soon have its own aircraft maintenance workshop in the area around Maya-Maya international airport. Built by China, the country's first maintenance centre should be operational by December 2025....

Designed to take 2 years to construct by the manufacturer AVIC international, the work on this centre is entirely financed by China. ......

In addition, the opening of the centre will facilitate the maintenance of Chinese aircraft operating in the Congo and the rest of the region.

Nouvel Air Congo, created in 2008 and currently inactive , has a fleet of three Chinese-made MA60s. Alongside it, Camair-Co, the national carrier of Cameroon, also has two aircraft of the same type...."

(2) ENI to install 2nd floating LNG processor :

.."the head of the Italian oil group, Guido Brusco, announced the deployment of the second

floating liquefied gas plant off the coast of Pointe-Noire, in November this year.

This plant will have an initial production capacity of 2.4 million tonnes/year by the end of 2025, a production level of 3 million tonnes/year of liquefied gas..."

Should help resolve budget deficits..

GLA

.."A little bit of positive news will go a very long way..."

Absolutely. Thanks, guys.

It would be interesting to see what ChatGPT makes of the following thought experiments :

(1) What is the current investment case FOR ZIOC ?

(2) What is the current investment case AGAINST ZIOC ?

(3) What is the typical discount to NPV (if any) that projects similar to ZIOC command?

I 'get' that AI (as available to the public) is mostly a synthesis /consensus (?) of the accumulated literature on a subject, am not clear how capable it is of thinking laterally/'outside the box' and come up with something 'original'.

I'm currently experimenting with AI to see if it can produce a 5 - minute podcast debating the merits of a 380 page self-help book written by my partner...and will defo want to make sure that it presents the case fairly (AIUI), before sharing with her.....

It's a whole new world out there !

GLA

A slow news day (except for Eddsy : main headline is about members being locked out of the soccer federation AGM...), see

(1) Someone's been sabotaging high-tension electricity pylons...

Editorial :

.."Re the identity of the perpetrator or perpetrators who sabotaged the pylons of Energie électrique du Congo (E²C), thereby exacerbating the malfunctioning of a company that is still struggling to find its feet, there are strong suspicions that point to the action of an expert hand, let's say an uncivil expert hand.

After all, unbolting a high-voltage pylon and sending it crashing to the ground then attacking the electricity distribution substations that are supposed to supply subscribers cannot be the work of novices. But to put these misbehaviours down to a fit of temper or to some kind of corporatist demand does not exempt the perpetrators from prosecution for damage to public property ...."

(2) HYDROCARBONS

An investment of USD 150 m expected from Cogo

The Congolese subsidiary of China Oil Natural Gas Overseas Holding Ltd (Cogo) intends to invest nearly 90 billion FCFA ($150 million) to drill the Conkouati-Koui and Nanga III wells

over the next three years...."

.."One point of particular interest is the Conkouati oil licence, located near the Conkouati-Douli National Park. The authorities have promised to ensure that the implementation of

oil projects do not affect the sphere of this important protected area with its numerous lowland gorillas...."

(3) The dog that (still) hasn't barked : no coverage re AD Ports' crane investment in PN...

GLA

Hi MM

I'm sure Abu Dhabi's on the case !

https://www.msn.com/en-ae/money/companies/dalio-abu-dhabi-royal-s-g42-said-to-shelve-investment-venture

.."G42 is the Middle East’s most prominent AI firm, with backers including US private equity giant Silver Lake and Abu Dhabi’s $302 billion wealth fund Mubadala Investment Co. It also recently lined up a $1.5 billion investment from Microsoft Corp. after agreeing to end any cooperation with China.

It’s overseen by Sheikh Tahnoon, who’s also the national security adviser of the United Arab Emirates. The royal traveled to the US last week with his brother, UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, and was involved in talks to promote AI cooperation between the two nations. .."

Sh Tahnoon, of course , is the man behind International Holding Company's' push into Zambia...

https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2024/03/uae-eyes-zambia-mine-minerals-race-heats-against-saudi-arabia-china

.."The UAE is the fourth largest investor in Africa, after China, the European Union, and the United States, respectively. Saudi Arabia is racing to catch up, developing its domestic mining sector while also heavily investing in Africa to tap into its mineral resources.

At the Saudi-Arab-African Economic Conference last year, Riyadh signed more than $500 million in agreements, ranging from minerals and renewable energy to food processing. Furthermore, Manara Minerals, a mining company backed by Saudi Arabia’s deep-pocketed Public Investment Fund, is setting up a metals trading arm to support its interest in mining companies overseas..."

Now here's a thought : will AbuDhabi be inside a PIF/China tent, p*ssing out...or outside, p*ssing in ?

Maybe there's another 'competing bids' scenario to consider ?

A nice problem to have, if so.

GLA

Two depeches articles putting things in perspective :

(1) French ambassador has meeting with Big Den - main topic of discussion : French Govt. aid for public drains rehabilitation in the capital.

(2) PAGIR (the ‘Accelerating Institutional Governance and Reforms for Sustainable Service Delivery’ (PAGIR) programme. )

Disbursement of funds conditional on the completion of public reforms

With the support of the World Bank (WB), the Congo is continuing with its public finance management reforms.

.." Before releasing a penny at each stage of the programme, the WB's partners require a certified report on the results achieved by the beneficiary administrations. "

Well, duh...

Let's hope the Strategic Partners have good escrow arrangements!

Although it smacks of economic tutelage, it would improve governance (and the economy!) enormously if C-B's 'free carry' in the ZIOC project was subject to reporting and disbursement conditions.

If there's an (apolitical) multilateral agency involved in any deal, maybe that could be agreed...?

'Alwayshoping' to coin a phrase !

GLA

..."Bainbridge Fund, a holdout creditor benefiting from a court-ordered award related to the Republic’s debt defaults, is seeking information regarding the location and usage of the country’s gold reserves. Currently engaged in asset discovery of the Central Bank, Bainbridge is acting under a 2023 ruling by Judge Loretta Preska, which allows the fund to identify assets that could potentially be repatriated to the U.S. for attachment. Bainbridge has also filed a Turnover motion for YPF shares owned by the Republic..."

GLA

Good find, MM.

And - unlike Simandou, where the Chinese were dilatory in meeting their funding commitments to RTZ - BaoSteel has recently upped its contribution to Ra's AlKhair :

https://gulfbusiness.com/baosteel-boosts-investment-in-saudi-steel-jv

.."Chinese steelmaker Baoshan Iron and Steel Company (Baosteel) said on Thursday that it will more than double its investment in a steel plate joint venture with its Saudi partners – Aramco and the Public Investment Fund (PIF).

Baosteel said in a regulatory filing that it will inject $1bn for a 50 per cent stake in the steel venture, while Aramco and PIF will each invest $500m for a 25 per cent stake...

and closes

.."The venture is part of an effort by the Chinese and Saudi governments to collaborate on Beijing’s Belt and Road infrastructure initiative and Riyadh’s Vision 2030 economic reform plan.."

All consistent with the themes discussed with MBS by Premier Li during his visit 3 weeks ago:

https://www.reuters.com/world/riyadh-chinas-premier-li-calls-accelerated-gulf-trade-talks-2024-09-11

.."BEIJING/DUBAI, Sept 11 (Reuters) - Chinese Premier Li Qiang and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman discussed cooperation in several sectors including energy, investment and trade in a meeting in Riyadh on Wednesday, the Saudi state news agency SPA reported....

.."Li said the two sides should further expand the scale of bilateral trade, deepen cooperation in fields from oil and gas, petrochemicals and infrastructure to EMERGING FIELDS SUCH AS NEW ENERGY AND THE GREEN ECONOMY, according to a statement from China's Foreign Ministry..."

GLA

Hi beardozer

Addressing your points, seriatim IN BOLD :

1. In the first place, I'd be running the company in the interests of ALL shareholders!

YOU'RE UNLIKELY TO BE GIVEN A CHANCE TO RUN ANY COMPANY WITH THAT (COMMENDABLE) MINDSET.

2. ZIOC is effectively owned by GLEN/Elphick who can do what they like so how could PI's be "troublesome" even if they are largely irrelevant? Besides, it's a public company - we have a right to own shares.

RUNNING A QUOTED CO ENTAILS ALL MANNER OF REGULATORY, COMPLIANCE AND REPORTING ISSUES. PI's WERE A NECESSARY INCONVENIENCE AT IPO TIME AND OF LITTLE VALUE TO THE MAJORS SINCE, AS SHOWN BY THEIR GENERAL ATTITUDE (OF BENIGN NEGLECT) TO US.

3. As Veteran10 points out, the higher the SP the higher the takeover offer. If the ZIOC SP were currently 100p we know that a takeover offer would have to be higher. A low SP can be very dangerous for shareholders.

YES, MAYBE RE SENTENCE 3. NOT SO RE THE FIRST TWO. A CONTROLLING SHAREHOLDER (S) CAN MAKE A TENDER OFFER LOWER THAN CURRENT S/P (OR ENGINEER A LOWER S/P) BY THREATENING TO DE-LIST. MOST PIs, FACED WITH AN ILLIQUID HOLDING IN A LIKELY UNCOMMUNICATIVE/HOSTILE COMPANY WILL SELL OUT WHILE THEY CAN. THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL INSTANCES OF THIS HAPPENING THIS PAST YEAR.

THE ONLY CONSTRAINT IS THAT A COMPANY CAN'T MAKE AN OFFER AT A PRICE LOWER THAN ANY SHARES IT HAS PURCHASED IN THE PREV 12 MONTHS. IN GLEN/ELPHICK'S CASE, OF COURSE, THAT'S 5.25p....

You only have to look at today's RNS from MMAG announcing a takeover offer from AO at a measly 9p.

Back in 2021 the company was floated at 193p before the SP bottomed at 5p in May 2024 and yesterday it was only 5.75p - not too different from ZIOC!

APPLES AND ORANGES, I THINK, FROM A SKIM OF MMAG ; NEVER MADE A PROFIT, HIGHLY INDEBTED, BOOK VALUE PER S/PEDIA OF 8.7P, HAVING PEAKED AT 22.5P A FEW YEARS AGO...

HTH