Member Info for extrader

Nothing on twitter AFAICS, Marty has posted on his linked-in.

Mining Industry Professionals (join us at https://miningindustryprofessionals.net )Mining Industry Professionals (join us at https://miningindustryprofessionals.net )

Marty Knauth • 3rd+Marty Knauth • 3rd+

7h • 7 hours ago

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"..It is always worthwhile to pause and reflect where your Values and objectives sit in relation to the world around you.

With interest and momentum building around the Zanaga Project, this is sometimes hard to achieve, however thanks to Rob Tyson for the opportunity to promote not only the amazing Zanaga Project, but what we aim to achieve for the minerals industry.

Zanaga Iron Ore Company LtdZanaga Iron Ore Company Ltd

86 followers86 followers

7h • Edited • 7 hours ago

Zanaga Iron "Digs Deep".

Zanaga's CEO Marty Knauth spent some time today with Rob Tyson of "Dig Deep - the Mining Podcast", providing a virtual walk around the Republic of Congo, the Zanaga Project and minerals industry leadership.

Our 100% owned Congolese company MPD Congo is "what good looks like" when it comes to stakeholder engagement and we commend our team in the Republic of Congo, as the trust and reputation we have established is a key pillar of this fantastic Project..."

Is this all about 'greenwashing' GLEN, I wonder?

I'm not clear what MK hopes to achieve 'for the mining industry', which goes even beyond the now-accepted broadening of accountability to 'stakeholders'.

Where do the 'owners' of the business fit in ?

GLA

Well, that came out of left field !

More questions than answers.

(1) Why this choice of format..and why now ?

"..@Rob Tyson, an experienced mining recruiter/head-hunter with over 10 years in the mining industry, is the founder and director of Mining International Ltd, a leading recruitment and headhunting agency based in the UK specialising in mining across the global. We source and discover new talent to fill those difficult or challenging vacancies our clients have.

Previous topics on the podcast have included what it takes to be a leader in mining, getting your dream job, looking at the opportunities and challenges in the African mining industry, and finding finance for your projects..."

Not an obvious platform on which to disclose an apparent major shift in approach and timetable.

And not within a week of a statutory requirement to update the market anyway.

(2) Who is the message aimed at - the 'bien pensants' and / or ESG community?

Or to 'soften up' PI's for a 'realistic' offer ...perhaps from the likes of these people https://www.greeninitiatives.gov.sa/about-mgi , with Ma'aden/Manara Minerals as the mechanism?

(3) Where is GLEN - and C-B - in all of this ?

Having raised Big Den's expectations AND handed a lot of ZIOC intellectual property etc to the Chinese, the potential for summary expropriation would seem to have risen significantly. A few clinics and schools plus some raising of social capital (to supplement that being done by development agencies and multilaterals) isn't going to cut it, AFAICS.

HZM is perhaps interesting read-across, if not for the reasons Moneyman has advanced - the offtake agreement seems to have been a 'makeweight' to impress the (majority) non-industry shareholders. The direct financial impact on GLEN would be small if 'take AND pay', since there was/is no product. I can't believe GLEN would have signed up to 'take or pay' since that would have required it to assume disproportionate execution risk. However, the fact that a 90%+ cost over-run could happen in a project where GLEN was a17% shareholder (and supposedly 'the adult in the room') is a pretty damning indictment of its 'greenfield' project management competence...and seemingly vindicates Ivan's long-standing aversion.

Interesting that all this 'unravel' would seem to have been happening around the time ZIOC was discussing possible structures with its 'strategic investors...or partners'. I re-read that Manara Minerals checklist of key requirements somewhat differently....

(4) Marty's several times repeated mantra of 'clear, consistent communication with stakeholders' is in rather poor taste, IMO.

(5) Elphick and GLEN are sharp cookies and will have gone down this route for a reason, let's hope it leads to the 'least bad' outcome.

Next week's newsflow will be interesting, to say the least .

GLA and ATB

I'm not familiar with what happened there.

Are you saying that there's relevant read-across? If so, what?

TIA

Hi Jiving,

(1) Re GLEN 'intransigence' :That was rather the point in my recent re-cap of Manara's declared objectives.

.."3. Offtake

SECURING OFFTAKE is critical to our investments, which feed into global markets. [Their position won't/shouldn't have come as a surprise to GLEN...]..."

And GLEN is evidently amenable to proportionate offtake arrangements, when it suits, see

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/nippon-steel-hunt-more-coking-coal-iron-ore-assets-executive-2023-11-29/

From the context, it seems that GLEN has agreed that Nippon Steel will offtake product proportionate to its 20% investment :

.."About 60% of Nippon Steel's products are sold for term customers with a mechanism that adjusts selling prices to raw materials costs, but 40% are commodity products that are affected by steel market fluctuation.

"We would like to RAISE the self-sufficiency ratio to around 40% in order to neutralize the impact of raw material prices on market products," he said, referring to both coal and iron ore.

It NOW procures 20% of its 50 million tons of iron ore imports from its equity holdings..."

(2) Re delphic Elphick 'intransigence' : FOMO and YOLO (a.k.a. common sense) will prevail, IMO.

ATB

Hi beardozer

.."Constantly posting "information" which doesn't raise the SP. .."

With all due respect (which is a moveable feast), I think you're naive even to entertain the notion that comment on a minor bulletin board can influence a share price significantly, either up or down.

Do you think MBS (if it is he) is going to make an investment decision depending on what sort of property an anonymous shareholder is daydreaming he'll spend his 'winnings' on ?

He'll do so -if at all - on 'rational' investment considerations, balanced against a host of other considerations specific to his fairly unique domestic and international political status.

I think our position is in some ways analogous to spectators at a cricket match : firstly, we have no influence or say on the final result; second, when nothing much is happening, we can fill in time by going to the bar, chatting with mates, looking at our social media...or comment/speculate about things vaguely (maybe) related to the game's progress and outcome : the weather forecast; the quality of the pitch; the captains' tactics; the form of the players; the use of the crease, etc etc.

Every now and then there are enforced breaks in play, that invite opportunities for fresh commentary from a different perspective.

We should have some 'new news' in the next week or so (month-end being Sunday 30th), for folk to chew over (or not).

But remember : It’s a complicated business and we should perhaps leave the last word to John Arlott who once said ‘we take life too lightly and sport too seriously’.

https://www.thefulltoss.com/england-cricket-blog/the-commentators-old-and-new/

ATB

Hi Mr M,

I think Ashmore is looking at things from the pov of Milei's starting position'since taking power', as the following sentence makes clear - acknowledging its ' relatively weak position in the legislature'. They agree with you!

Is the glass half full or half empty ?

Goldilocks - or an engineer- might say that it's the right size ;->

Having to compromise may offend the purists, but is likely to make for more durable/sustainable outcomes, in the long run, would you agree?

ATB and GLA

And, from Ashmore :

.."Argentina: The Senate approved President Javier Milei's first set of austerity measures with a narrow vote of 37 to 36. The measures still require approval from the Lower House before becoming law. Since taking power, Milei’s government's weakness in Congress and opposition to pension reform has hindered the implementation of his market-friendly reform agenda. The omnibus bill approval will be an important milestone, proving the government can negotiate despite its relative weak position in the legislature. The government remains committed to its fiscal consolidation agenda, targeting a zero fiscal balance for 2024. The recent plunge in inflation should help support Milei’s popularity for longer. Milei needs investments to boost GDP growth and employment before mid-term elections in mid-2025..."

GLA

And, as if on cue, from Seb :

.."The IMF suggests that Argentina should “resolve over time” its ongoing legal proceedings to regain access to international capital markets and to ensure that the current optimism about the country’s future, as reflected in sovereign bond prices, does not suffer a setback.

IMF, June 17, 2024 .."

GLA

Hi atg,

Thanks for this!

See also Marty's most recent likes :

- JSW Group - our old friends the Jindals, active in Oman

https://www.omanobserver.om/article/1139744/business/economy/vulcan-to-oversee-jindal-groups-new-steel-investments-in-oman,

Vulcan also took over Vale's coal interests in Moatize, Mozambique. Jindal itself is scouring Africa looking for iron ore feedstock...see prev.

- https://www.jfe-steel.co.jp/en/

JFE Steel is the second largest Japanese steel manufacturer. The company was created in 2002 through the merger of the steel manufacturing business of Kawasaki Steel and NKK....

Some might say that Marty's being an 'equal opportunities endorser', I couldn't possibly comment!

GLA

That was then...

Creation of Manara Minerals :

https://www.pif.gov.sa/en/news-and-insights/press-releases/2023/pif-and-maaden/

January 2023

.."Ma’aden will own 51% and PIF will own 49% of the company

The company will initially invest in iron ore, copper, nickel, and lithium, as a non-operating partner taking minority equity positions in mining assets globally ..."

Manara sets out its stall :

https://www.manaraminerals.com/Investments.html

The key pillars of our investment strategy:

1. Partnership

We take MINORITY positions in companies and assets, providing long-term capital for long term PARTNERSHIPS WITH WORLD CLASS OPERATORS.

2. Structure

We make equity investments to participate in the expected growth of an opportunity.

3. Offtake

SECURING OFFTAKE is critical to our investments, which feed into global markets. [Their position won't/shouldn't have come as a surprise to GLEN...]

4. Commodities

We are currently focused on copper, lithium, nickel and iron ore [note order change...strategy or just responding to opportunities? ].

5. International

Our investment mandate is global, and we see opportunities in AFRICA and Asia, CONNECTING WITH VALUE CHAINS in the Middle East.

6. Life cycle

We invest across the life cycle of an asset, while ensuring a balanced portfolio.

7. Enabling industry

Together with our partners, we seek to support MID-STREAM INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT in the Kingdom and provide access to regional growth markets.

8. ESG

We keep the principles of ESG at the forefront of our investments.

Backed by Ma’aden, a global leading mining company, and PIF, one of the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds.

We have access to the resources that will ACCELERATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WORLD CLASS MINING ASSETS.

This is now :

(1) Copper and nickel?

Initial target addressed by 10% Vale Base Metals investment , with additional copper as part of proposed Reqo Diq investment (believed in process)

(2) Lithium ?

Bandar's on the case :

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/saudi-arabia-set-securing-lithium-ev-ambitions-2024-04-28/

followed by

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/chile-says-saudi-mining-minister-visit-lithium-expected-agenda-2024-06-16/

Saudi also said to be sniffing around Argentina...the 'new Saudi Arabia' of lithium

https://www.investorintel.com/critical-minerals-rare-earths/argentina-the-new-saudi-arabia-of-lithium/

https://www.bloomberglinea.com/english/these-are-the-41-companies-betting-on-argentinas-lithium-key-export-and-price-forecasts/

(3) Iron ore?

There's a big empty 'checklist' box waiting to be filled...

At some point, MBS is going to ask for an update on the plan...

GLA

PS : Vale CEO Bartolomeo's comments came at the FII conference, which will be holding its next summit in Riyadh in late October 2024.

The Future Investment Initiative Institute, or FII Institute, is a non-profit organisation run by the Public Investment Fund, Saudi Arabia's main sovereign wealth fund. The Future Investment Initiative was announced in September 2017 by Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund, to "host an annual event bringing people together to invest in the most promising solutions". This has to be seen in the context of the Saudi Vision 2030 program of economic and social reform.

The Saudi Ministry of Investment is a 'Vision Partner' and Ma'aden is listed amongst the contributors as is this new start-up (Feb 2024), Saudi and M East Green Initiatives

https://www.greeninitiatives.gov.sa/about-sgi/

GLA

PS : Vale CEO Bartolomeo's comments came at the FII conference, which will be holding its next summit in Riyadh in late October 2024.

The Future Investment Initiative Institute, or FII Institute, is a non-profit organisation run by the Public Investment Fund, Saudi Arabia's main sovereign wealth fund. The Future Investment Initiative was announced in September 2017 by Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund, to "host an annual event bringing people together to invest in the most promising solutions". This has to be seen in the context of the Saudi Vision 2030 program of economic and social reform.

The Saudi Ministry of Investment is a 'Vision Partner' and Ma'aden is listed amongst the contributors as is this new start-up (Feb 2024), Saudi and M East Green Initiatives

https://www.greeninitiatives.gov.sa/about-sgi/

GLA

Https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-steel-demand-plateaus-decent-193113367.html

Comments on the outlook for iron ore prices, a shift in emphasis in China from rebar to plate, Vale interest in a new (for it) market - the US - and continued interest in the M East

.."Vale aims to keep demand up by serving steelmakers across the world through “mega hubs” in the Middle East, Brazil and US as part of its push to manufacture steel using higher-grade iron ore to help reduce emissions..."

Good to see the aspiration re-stated, let's see some 'perspiration' !

GLA

Https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-steel-demand-plateaus-decent-193113367.html

Comments on the outlook for iron ore prices, a shift in emphasis in China from rebar to plate, Vale interest in a new (for it) market - the US - and continued interest in the M East

.."Vale aims to keep demand up by serving steelmakers across the world through “mega hubs” in the Middle East, Brazil and US as part of its push to manufacture steel using higher-grade iron ore to help reduce emissions..."

Good to see the aspiration re-stated, let's see some 'perspiration' !

GLA

.."And since not a mention of anything.. SA/ME.. odd that..."

You're overlooking Elphick's comment in the 30 April RNS :

.."We look forward to presenting these results to the various strategic partners we have been engaging with and advancing our discussions further with them as we look to progress towards front end engineering and design of the project",

followed a day later by reported willingness to talk, eg

.."AT was on WhatsApp and fielding queries on next steps PR. Marty's preferred channel looks to be LinkedIn where he was chatting. On that score Zanaga Iron ore now have a LinkedIn profile..."

.."Worth trying to engage AT and even Marty. They were chatty yesterday."

IR and PR incoming1 May 2024 06:59

.."I understand that ZIOC plan:

An updated Corporate Presentation,

Proactive interview, and

A possible investor call to include Marty..."

of which we got a (subdued) Proactive interview....and your 'radio silence' after that.

Them's the 'facts' in the public domain, make of them what you will !

GLA

Hi Micky1

.." At the end of this stock-lending transaction or on the repayment date (in July 2022), the collateral will be returned to the AvantGarde Group in shares or cash (this option has been negotiated in order to avoid any take over risk), at the choice of the borrower..."

No one's ever explained (maybe a question for the AGM), how the introduction of an (unusual) cash repayment option helps avoid takeover risk !

In my investment world, the shareholder with the MOST shares usually prevails in an attempted takeover. Why would TAG/AZ voluntarily introduce an option that , if taken, would leave them with FEWER shares?

When SYME saw PI's swallow that argument unquestioningly, they must have thought Christmas had come early.

AFAICS

Hi MM,

Since you ask...

(1) I've been (occasionally, when it seems material) 'marking your homework ' since at least 2017 (culminating in the Haldor Topsoe fertiliser project, which you enthused about long after I pointed out that Danish export credit was 'off cover' and the project was a non-starter ?).

You went off in a huff to set up a (curated = managed) twitter account, that would only post positive news :

.."Good morning All Great response for the new group. Twitter is only fitfully allowing new 'adds', for no obvious reason. We are at 39 now, and I am going to cap at 50 to ensure some manageability! Rest assured all info will be tweeted out to boost the ZIOC investment case."

.."I will try and ensure that the group retains the most active researchers and, as such, I expect there will be some 'toing and froing'of members over the next few weeks..."

Or this, from 2019 : .."News filters from the Congo Forum that #ZIOC/Jumelles heavily engaged with CRBC (the huge Chinese infrastructure co.) over design enhancements to and acceleration of the iron ore wharves at Pointe Noire. Trestles, auto-loading and capacity increase to 40Mtpa from the get go..."

Neither has aged well, wouldn't you accept ? You re-appeared here - with your 'own' board (as you see it)...and have posted some good stuff , as I freely acknowledge. But it seems you can't resist over-egging the pudding ;-<

(2) As to contributions,, I'd cite PSEI/Ausenco; PP-FCC (Asperbras/Lula electoral finance/Nguesso link/Little Den/SNPC corruption); Ollivier (Brazzaville Foundation/end of apartheid/ Russian support for Big Den/Rosatom hydropower), to name but three. The cases against Sapro Mayoko, Mbalam Nabeba, etc....

(3) I've contacted the co frequently, without result, which suggests they're not willing to engage at present (at least not with me, unlike previously). Hence my piqued interest in your inference that you'd been given the 'NDA' argument by them. ..Which you STILL haven't answered, btw, Yes or No ?...especially as it would be inconsistent with - and represent a radical change since - your earlier suggestion that ZIOC was amenable to some kind of presentation. Or was that also wishful thinking ?

(4) I'm not 'demanding at will' , I'm asking for you to share the source of your claim ie a new angle (maybe) on the maneouvrings. Trust is good, checking is better, I've found. I have my own flightradar subscription, thanks, and have used it to sort out the facts re PP-FCC, whose movements I subsequently report to the board(s).

(5) I've found that bluster and invective are usually a good 'tell'.

I'll leave it at that.

All the best ...and good luck to us all.

Sincerely.

I'm as keen as anyone to see this progress, but overstating where we are doesn't- in the long run - help anyone.

You've ducked.my Q as to whether the 'tight, mutual NDA' statement came from the Company..and you've ducked my perfectly reasonable request for evidence eg call sign supporting your other recent claim re large corporate jet movements.

By all means tag things as 'informed guesswork or speculation', pls don't assert as fact unless you've got some supporting evidence.

You come up with lots of good stuff, which everyone - self included - appreciates, then (as I believe now) damage your case and credibility by going out on an unsupported limb.

Pls prove me wrong.

ATB

Here's another 'black swan' to counter the 'all swans are white/ absence of evidence' thesis :

Jiving has shown from the FMF tweet that the NDA restrictions argument for radio silence doesn't hold water.

Similarly, Vale's silence re 3 hubs isn't evidence of NDA's, it suggests rather things aren't as yet as advanced as we'd like : just google "Vulcan, Duqm,

groundbreaking' for plenty of evidence of the publicity that anything actually underway gets.

You'll see newsflow from Nov 2023 onwards, for a timetable to actual production 2024 to 2027 ie what Vale is talking about conceptually.

I think you're out in front of your skis on this one.

GLA and ATB

from depeches over the last week :

- congo forfeited its world cup qualifier agst nigeria, because of a no-show shambles over pitch availability; next game is away to morocco, today 11th;

-imf is in town to discuss modalities for reduction/removal of subsidies on hydrocarbons, often politically sensitive;

-luyuan des mines congo lmc is talking up the activation of its potassium/potash mine in koilou, this is one of 2 (other being hinda) that was being discussed back in 2018..

https://www.finances.gouv.cg/en/articles/signing-two-agreements-tapping-potash-and-phosphate

- lots of politicians out and about trying to calm the populace over discontent re some land deals done with rwanda in 2022;

- atm's to impose use of cfa in electronic transfers, 'to encourage 'dedollarisation', some atm's will however continue to give (certain) state employees access to usd (??!!)

- for marty : reactivation of bull rugby club in brz, rugby 7's vs barbar of pointe noire...

- today's headline : decline of sme activity because of power/water disruption (5 hours>3 daysthe former; 2days > 6 months the latter)

- 1st marathon to be run in pn in october, 9k participants expected...

- little den tweets meeting with koreans, suggestion of an embassy at some point, little den has his eyes on part of the korean int'l cooperation agency's $ 10bn pot for africa...

it's a sobering thought that 3 countries were at the same development stage back in the 60's - kenya, ****stan and south korea; the world bank sponsored korea visits to karachi to learn how to move from an agricultural to industrial society (as ****stan had done with the obsolete british textile machinery).

one of the 3 is now at $33k gdp per capita, vs uk $49k, the other two are relatively failed states. at $4.9k and $ 5.4 k respectively. c-b is about $ 2.5k.

gla