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Russian Marketmaker is incentivised to show a share price growth after the launch at MoEx. That’s why they pushed it down today to have a lower round starting point. If this theory correct, it will gap tomorrow

Listing at MoEx is a good sign - it shows that management thinks that LSE investors do not give a fair price. Indeed, after 2014 everything Russian is woefully undervalued. Internal investors would likely be more generous, so naturally the shares would go to where the price is higher.

POG trading on Moscow Exchange is expected to start at the end of June, in about a week time, so large UT trade is definitely related. Obviously, it was not POG itself buying - they have a market making agreement with Renaissance Capital. I expect that initially POG prices at MOEX would be much higher that at LSE, so moving shares from London to Moscow should continue.

Thanks kenj, I feel your pain. But past is past. I do not expect shareholders to get screwed as a result of the merger, it is not in the interest of institutional investors with whom Strukov should agree the terms. As for the transparency ... Usually Russians start to care about it only when they are planning to sell the assets. If they hold for themselves they would not care. At some point they might think about selling POG, cashing out and getting out of the reach of Mr. Putin. It seems the time did not come yet :)

kenj, that's why POG is so attractive. All these issues are quite easy to resolve once there is a motivation to do so, and all the debt is easy to pay out if gold price stays where it is now. Then sp will be valued fairly which means factor 2-3 appreciation to what it is now.

Out of curiosity, are you working for Strukov and trying to damp the price before the merger? Or is it that you are trying to get in on a big size? I observed a lot of negativity on this board recently which also looks quite bullish to me. I would rather avoid a stock that everyone is happy with.

Not that I really care as a long term holder, just curious.

Well, knowing Russian politics, I would assume that they put it forward and now waiting for Putin's approval :)

A few thoughts

1) If Pavel speaks publicly then chances are that deal already happened and now is being finalised.
2) POG price might be dumped recently by Strukov's structures
3) After the merger the new company would become totally transparent and cap maximising. It can quickly reach POLY cap.

As I said before, POG is a super leveraged play on the price of gold. If gold continues its climb then POG will easily pay out its debts (which is probably the main drag on share price) and doubles/triples outpacing cey. But if gold goes down then it might get ugly again. Call option on gold with strike around 1500-1700.

One thing I like about POG is that it is "unpopular" and undiscovered by the market. That makes it much easier to accumulate a sizeable position at relatively low valuations. I am going to hold for 2-3 years and see what happens. Hopefully, POX will deliver.

Please keep in mind that whatever we write here would not affect company valuation in the long run. Long term investors should not care about occasional disagreement (I would not). In the same vein there is no point in promoting company in other chats. My only concern about GGP is that the trade might be overcrowded - and I saw many overcrowded trades in the past. I hope I am wrong and I wish success to all current GGP holders. Also I am very grateful to people who post real research here. :)

One thing I noticed is that that there is a swarm of people trying to promote GGP in the chats of all other gold and commodity miners. Just by this singular metric I infer that this stock is going to collapse back to 2p pretty soon. "There is a long, documented history of retail investors chasing a handful of story stocks and then getting burned." Looking forward for a spectacular crash.

However, I would be careful with assumption that falling oil price reduce AISC - it frequently led to rising petrol price in Russia in the past as gov moved tax burden to the internal customers :)

Chances are current bull market in gold would be immune to bear market in stocks and commodities as the next wave of solvency crisis kicks in. We will have 70-s replayed. But there'll be a lot of volatility for sure, and there'll be at least a few years before it goes into the bubble stage.

Thanks a lot, Kenj! That's exactly what I was looking for. Sounds pretty good. Let's see how it plays out.

Thanks Rustybucket, I much appreciate your opinion. I am a macro trader, and to me the main motivation to enter POG was that it provides a perfect way to play a leveraged bet on the price of gold. With its debt pile POG is effectively a call option on gold. If mining margins go up significantly it would (hopefully) repay its debt and multiply in value. However, if there is a scenario where they convert bonds into shares then it is not as perfect as I thought. I would much appreciate clarity on this question.

Have a nice day!

Thank you, Rustybucket. Do you see a significant risk from debt refinancing negotiation/convertibles? What are the possible scenarios?

As for increases/decreases, who cares about daily volatility, it is just noise. Understanding of what's going on is priceless.

Looks like insider buying to me before the report. I am new to POG, have you observed this behaviour before?