The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Major risks are Russians advancing and iron ore prices falling during the approaching recession. I have no expertise about legal risks here.
USDMXN is moving up, while gold/silver prices hover high. Good setup to start climbing again.
I expect us to witness a correction down to 550 or so. The long-term case is intact.
$29.42 in silver is taken.
I was tempted and sold 20% of my positions in miners a few hours after the CPI print, but bought them back yesterday on a gold strength at approx the same prices. I could just go for vacation for the next 3 months to avoid overtrading.
The environment in which gold/silver are steadily climbing or even holding the ground, and S&P/Mag7 are crashing, would be the best for the miners - they will move up on steroids. People have learned from 2008 and 2020. Even the liquidity crisis would be good for precious metals this time.
Hi Tony, thanks for this "contrarian" view. Everything is possible. However, the article's arguments are weak.
"cinderella metal, silver, being slow to authenticate the move as it normally might." - Not anymore.
"they tend to buy on the benchmark (or fix) and these purchases are not." - I would not make a lot from that.
"LBMA vault data" - again, very weak argument.
"It appears a counterparty has taken a particulalry large bet on gold and squeezing the market"
Not possible to keep this in secret. Options bet of this size could be done only with multiple bullion/investment banks. Everyone from every gold trading desk would already be talking about that. Besides, no hedge fund would dare to do this in the current environment, inflicting regulation scrutiny.
Again, everything is possible, but I would not hold my breath.
I am reluctant to trim, with gold making all time highs every day. There will be a correction at some point, but the risk is to miss the move of lifetime underexposed. Yesterday, I found myself adding to juniors that lagged so far, like Silver Tiger and US Gold Corp. Fres is one of my core holdings. Go for the jugular.
What makes you think the company was "poorly managed" compared to its peers? I have not encountered anything pointing to that - I would not be invested here otherwise. There were headwinds for sure (mostly related to Mexica and MXN strength), which are likely to mean-revert as soon as MXN carry trade collapses. However, it has nothing to do with the management.
I am pleased to find Fresnillo close to the top:
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Newmont moved >5% on Friday. FRES has to catch up.
Timing is all :)
Back to FRES, it's still doing better than peers today. Gold and silver are holding their ground. Not trimming my exposure here.
It was more about Middle East escalation concern. Both oil and the US arms manufacturers rallied. Gold quickly retraced too. The trade "long gold miners - short Magnificent 7" does great so far.
Close your shorts, friends, or your brokers will do it for you soon. :)
What 21 P/E? At the current gold, silver prices and production rate, we are talking about almost 1 billion EBIDTA, with a market cap around 4 billions. Also, don't forget about 2.2b Oz silver resources (and 38M Oz gold). If only silver resources are revalued by 1$/Oz and gold resources by $50/Oz as prices go up, we are talking about doubling the market cap from here.
If current gold/silver run is sustained, I see FRES breaking 10 pounds quite soon. It has all chances to outperform other miners because of the past underperformance due to forced seller.
With silver and gold up, while S&P and US Treasuries dropping, is the best setup for precious metals miners. Silver no longer behaves like industrial metal. I shorted Magnificent 7 for an extra spice, let's see how it goes.
On Mon/29, the reasons for a jump were different.
Somehow, I believe in silver breakout and miners following this time. One of my top holdings, Avino Silver, moved 21% up yesterday. I would not touch FRES until the price reaches the 600-700 range, or even higher, depending on how silver goes. One caveat of short-term trading is occasionally missing the real move.
Fogthemogg, I hope you are kidding. 56M Oz annual silver production, with the silver price increasing from 25 to 50, gives 1.4B USD extra annual profit, before tax, etc. Also, what value would you assign to 2.2B Oz silver resources, at $50?
When the seller is finished. We had relatively high volumes since the beginning of March. What was suppressed will overshoot.