Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Royalty deal would be a great alternative to equity raises or cheap warrants (provided the current miserable state of the stock market). It must be quite possible after the paperwork goes through and future royalties are de-risked.
Thanks bangrak, that's clear. It means their EBITDA in Jul-Sep quoter could print close to zero, unless the metal prices rebound. The costs and capex per quarter are around 25M. They have enough cash for 6 quarters of the severe "bear market".
Any idea why the company keeps so high cash reserves over the years? That does not make economic sense to me, especially in the current environment, where there are so many dirty cheap investment opportunities. It could be paid as a dividend, or share buy backs could be increased?
Good morning! Could you please help me to find the history/graph for 4E gross basket price mentioned in quarter report? Thanks!
COO, not CEO.
The interesting thing is this: "74,911,715 Ordinary Shares of the 149,823,430 ordinary shares of 0.1 pence each ("Ordinary Shares") held by Winchcombe Ventures Limited have been transferred to his personal account at a price of 0.9 pence per share. Mr Solbrandt has a one third beneficial interest in Winchcombe Ventures Limited".
The number of shares is 50%, not one third. Which means he bought someone out?
Looks like a coordinated attack to move the share price down. People are desperately trying to buy at a zero-liquidity market before the train leaves. Sorry gentlemen, if you want a decent size, you have to pay at the ask. :)
On a 1-3 year horizon, FXPO is likely to generate a decent return. However, I see better risk-reward opportunities elsewhere at the moment, especially in uranium and gold miners. A typical example is Shanta Gold - with 100k Oz annual production, its projected EBIDTA is 60M USD, with market capitalisation of 100M USD. What's the point of being exposed to Ukrainian war if there are safer opportunities elsewhere with much lower P/E?
Upside could be 100-150%. No expertise to estimate credit approval risk.
Judging by its recent reticence, Putin's troll factory funding was severely undercut. :)
BTW, US Congressional leaders were briefed about Prigozhin's plans days prior to Saturday's events. I think there are already ongoing talks between the new leadership and US intelligence.
First step would be removal of Putin and consolidation of power (destroying rival groups). We will see if the new leadership will have enough negotiation power after accomplishing step one.
In 1944, the German army officers tried to assassinate Adolf Hitler in a bet to change his intransigent policy leading to an inevitable disaster. Similar story is unfolding now in Russia. There is a powerful elite group who conspired to remove senile Putin. Prigozhin is a member of this group. His role was to show Putin's weakness and inability to rule. He stopped his troops 1 hour from Moscow when his FSB curators ordered him to. We will likely see removal of Putin and change of leadership in the next month. Hopefully, the new Russian leadership will stop war and normalise the relationship with the West.
The trading volumes are next to zero. It is impossible to buy or sell decent size without moving prices by 10% or more. Whatever prices we see these days are not "real" until stock becomes liquid.
In November, both iron price and FTSE recovered from the lows. FTSE is down today, and there are no substantial corporate or military news from the Ukraine. Looks like normal volatility so far.
I had a huge position here last year. Luckily, I sold it out in the 155-175 range. My reason for selling was not dictated by the lack of progress in terminating the war, though. I expected the onset of recession and drop in iron ore price, which occurred to be right with the benefit of hindsight.
Likewise, I am tempted to buy at these levels, but I think it is still probable that the stock market and base metal prices will retest October/2022 lows. FXPO could be indiscriminately dumped again with FTSE index funds. For that reason, I bought a small position at around 90, and I will wait for lower entering prices to increase my margin of safety.
Good luck to all.
Caterham7, thanks for your opinion. With your expertise in Africa, what do you think about the timeline for clearing the last substantive pre-condition - the right for KEFI to administer its own banking and capital servicing arrangements? Any insights on the EG clearing process?
UPshunt, all your points are valid. I'll be happy to support your nomination to the board if it ever comes to that. We need more transparency for this company, clear and honest communication.
Let's tell the truth. TK will go through. Share price will be 2-3p by the end of the year. Management and their cronies are given opportunity to increase their share in the pie at 0.7p.
Once KEFI has released its Annual Report for the year ending 31 December 2022 and is no longer in a closed period, the Company intends to offer the opportunity for certain Directors and PDMRs of the Company to accept ordinary shares at the Placing Price in lieu of cash remuneration fees.
Miners usually double between a construction decision and a first pour.
"A summary of 124 first-time mine builders in my PPSS research (average gain from a Construction Decision to First Pour is 97%)." https://independentspeculator.com/PPSS-Discovery-2023?ref=clarkvoc%40att.net
Good morning, Smellyben.
Thanks for your reply.
Management is almost always over-optimistic and biased (even the honest people), that's a professional deformation. I follow KEFI only from Oct/22, but I can see the sense in your opinion about HAA. Let us be objective, though. Let’s assume that whatever HAA promises must be totally discounted, and his timelines are unreliable. Then, the question is - what is the current probability of starting the construction of TK mine before the end of 2023, considering that the Final TK Umbrella Agreement has been signed? Should it be at least 50%?