Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
It gets up in the morning, and gets depressed in the afternoon. I guess there is an institutional US-based seller out there.
Slater, no ego here. :) I don't wish you to appear in a situation where you can show your bravery, be maimed and perish. But I wish you more maturity and love to the people, yourself and the world.
Slater, you probably don't realise that anyone protesting against the war in Russia would get severe internal organs and brain damage, in the best case scenario. Would you go protesting at such a price?
Yes. The FCF could still be negative due to high electricity and low iron prices, but I bought today whatever I could. Happy to add more if it goes to the 80-85. This is a long game.
There'll be enough electricity at some point. Key reason for weakness is iron ore prices collapsing and imminent recession expectations. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-31/iron-ore-s-collapse-deepens-as-china-factory-data-deals-new-blow
I guess we will see from the Q3 and Q4 reports. There will probably be some cash burn due to low production, high energy costs, and low iron prices until the war finishes.
Agreed, the only way to finish this war is internal disintegration in Russia. With Putin gone and mildly pro-Western government installed. Or Russia disintegrating into independent federal subjects.
This is from the blog of the Russian general Igor Girkin, the commander of all separatist forces in the Donbass region, translated: "On all fronts, the enemy is preparing to attack and is pulling up additional forces. Personally, I cautiously assume it is likely: the main attack on the Zaporozhye front, auxiliary - between Donetsk and Gorlovskaya, in the Dokuchaevsk region, in the Berislav direction of the Kherson front, and also directly in the Kherson region. I do not know the timing of the offensive, but I believe that it will hardly give our troops time to strengthen their positions and regroup troops in the areas threatened by the Armed Forces of Ukraine."
Haha, Putin's bots are still employed and got a new "General Line" to promote. No arguments, brothers, there will be a point when reality denial is no longer possible. I still find it funny that you waste your time in this obscure chat.
Patience is the main virtue in value investing. I am pretty sure this stock will be around 500 until the next summer. Will it happen on Monday or in January? - who cares :)
No, most likely it will not happen on Monday. I think it will take 1-2 weeks before the institutional money process the news about the Ukraine's victory and start to pile in. The main move though will happen when Putin's gang falls down, and a new Western-friendly government is installed in Russia. It will end the energy crisis in Europe, inflation crisis globally, reduce FXPO production costs, and send commodities (including iron ore) to the stratosphere. Another 2-6 weeks in my opinion. The power disintegration will likely be fast, like an avalanche. No one wants Putin in Russia any longer. Even the radical rights openly demand to hang him in telegram channels.
Russian troops' front line was very thin. There was no second line of defence. Once you cut through, you can go around behind the front-line without any resistance, cutting supply chains and spreading panic without a single shot. Russian generals never were good organisers, so I wonder if everyone would just flee now.
Ukrainian troops broke through the front line and advanced 50 km inland. The entire Izyum group is under threat of encirclement, supply lines have been cut. Russian troops panic, flee and surrender. Kherson group is cut without vital ammunition supply and is prepared to surrender. I wonder what Putin's bots would say today.
One can look through Telegram channels of Russian war generals, like girkin_igor (you would need some translation service from Russian). Surely, they do not lie. :) I see lots of panic in that quarter.
Speaking about FXPO, I think war is not the main driver anymore. It is pretty clear that Russians will be removed from the country, although it may take another 3-9 months. Logistics (including Black Sea port) will be open again, and production (energy) costs will be back to normal before summer 2023. The main driver will be a commodity super-cycle. Currently, the ratio of commodities to equities prices is at generational lows. Once commodities start to appreciate, miners' multiples will explode. That is a long-term game, though.
I started this thread to check if Putin's bots are still here. I am surprised they are. They are smart guys, and they must understand that their Master is finished. It is a good time to switch allegiance and start looking for a better employment. And even if they got stuck, why waste valuable time on an obscure stock share chat like this? Their time could be better employed somewhere on Facebook/Twitter/Tictoc, where more gullible people reside. And then who knows? Perhaps they persuade these folk to elect new politicians who would force Ukraine to stop and save dear Mr. Putin from imminent downfall. So that he could get some breathing space, rebuild his army, and invade the naive Europe again, haha.
Guys, you are seriously destroying your Karma for mere money. You support the tyrant who keeps all Russians in slavery, kills tens of thousands of people, harms millions, compensating for his childhood humiliation trauma from mediocrity and 155 cm height. You could employ your time better and do something useful for humanity. :)
I like reward-risk, especially now. Things are unfolding quickly. If Russian troops collapse, this stock will quickly double. If there is a stale-mate until the next spring, the price will likely stay where it is now.
Looks like Ukrainian forces finally started counter offensive in the Kherson area. Paradoxically, Ukrainian victory is now the only way to a stable multi-year piece. Russian political system is super-fragile, even a small Ukrainian victory will lead to Putin's downfall and immediate withdrawal of all Russian troops from Ukrainian territory. Ergo quite positive for FXPO.
There is no point talking to Putin's bots here. All social media platforms are infested by them now. They are begging and pleading to force the Ukraine into peace negotiations. Putin knows his days are numbered, and clutching at any straw.