Member Info for Equanimity

Judging by its recent reticence, Putin's troll factory funding was severely undercut. :)

BTW, US Congressional leaders were briefed about Prigozhin's plans days prior to Saturday's events. I think there are already ongoing talks between the new leadership and US intelligence.

First step would be removal of Putin and consolidation of power (destroying rival groups). We will see if the new leadership will have enough negotiation power after accomplishing step one.

In 1944, the German army officers tried to assassinate Adolf Hitler in a bet to change his intransigent policy leading to an inevitable disaster. Similar story is unfolding now in Russia. There is a powerful elite group who conspired to remove senile Putin. Prigozhin is a member of this group. His role was to show Putin's weakness and inability to rule. He stopped his troops 1 hour from Moscow when his FSB curators ordered him to. We will likely see removal of Putin and change of leadership in the next month. Hopefully, the new Russian leadership will stop war and normalise the relationship with the West.

The trading volumes are next to zero. It is impossible to buy or sell decent size without moving prices by 10% or more. Whatever prices we see these days are not "real" until stock becomes liquid.

In November, both iron price and FTSE recovered from the lows. FTSE is down today, and there are no substantial corporate or military news from the Ukraine. Looks like normal volatility so far.

I had a huge position here last year. Luckily, I sold it out in the 155-175 range. My reason for selling was not dictated by the lack of progress in terminating the war, though. I expected the onset of recession and drop in iron ore price, which occurred to be right with the benefit of hindsight.

Likewise, I am tempted to buy at these levels, but I think it is still probable that the stock market and base metal prices will retest October/2022 lows. FXPO could be indiscriminately dumped again with FTSE index funds. For that reason, I bought a small position at around 90, and I will wait for lower entering prices to increase my margin of safety.

Good luck to all.

Caterham7, thanks for your opinion. With your expertise in Africa, what do you think about the timeline for clearing the last substantive pre-condition - the right for KEFI to administer its own banking and capital servicing arrangements? Any insights on the EG clearing process?

UPshunt, all your points are valid. I'll be happy to support your nomination to the board if it ever comes to that. We need more transparency for this company, clear and honest communication.

Let's tell the truth. TK will go through. Share price will be 2-3p by the end of the year. Management and their cronies are given opportunity to increase their share in the pie at 0.7p.

Once KEFI has released its Annual Report for the year ending 31 December 2022 and is no longer in a closed period, the Company intends to offer the opportunity for certain Directors and PDMRs of the Company to accept ordinary shares at the Placing Price in lieu of cash remuneration fees.

Miners usually double between a construction decision and a first pour.

"A summary of 124 first-time mine builders in my PPSS research (average gain from a Construction Decision to First Pour is 97%)." https://independentspeculator.com/PPSS-Discovery-2023?ref=clarkvoc%40att.net

Good morning, Smellyben.

Thanks for your reply.

Management is almost always over-optimistic and biased (even the honest people), that's a professional deformation. I follow KEFI only from Oct/22, but I can see the sense in your opinion about HAA. Let us be objective, though. Let’s assume that whatever HAA promises must be totally discounted, and his timelines are unreliable. Then, the question is - what is the current probability of starting the construction of TK mine before the end of 2023, considering that the Final TK Umbrella Agreement has been signed? Should it be at least 50%?

Let’s calculate some market implied probabilities here.

First, we can approximately split NPV of various KEFI projects as follows in units of share price: (I took 2023 NPVs from the company presentation. One can argue about gold prices, discount factors, etc. )

TK: 4.6 p

SA: 3.8 p

Total: 8.4 p

Now, if we assume that the company at feasibility stage should be worth approx 10% of NPV, that would give us a 0.84p share price.

However, once the production facility is approved, financed, and construction is started, the value typically moves to 50% NPV. Which would give 4.6*0.5 + 3.8*0.1 = 2.68p.

KEFI price is between 0.84 and 2.68 currently, after the Final TK Umbrella Agreement is signed. With simple math, at 1.0p price, we get the implied probability of starting TK plant construction at approx. 9% !

My conclusion is that market is still too pessimistic about TK. Even at probability of starting plant construction of 50%, we get 1.76 KEFI price. Once the construction is started, the price should be at least at 2.7p.

Yes, RAB has been selling here for a few months. When I started to accumulate my position in KEFI, I was surprised how easy it was to buy virtually any size. You just leave the low bid, and eventually it was filled throughout the day. That deterred me a bit, because I thought insiders were selling while Harry promoted optimistic b*llsh&t. Now, especially after the signing, I feel a bit more relaxed. The RAB selling could be a blessing for many, providing cheap entry points - KEFI could be at 1.5-2.0 now otherwise.

Published now.

Ferrexpo plc (LSE: FXPO), a producer and exporter of high grade iron ore pellets to the global steel industry with operations in central Ukraine, announces that Jim North, Chief Executive Officer (CEO) and Executive Director of the Company, will step down following a period of nine years with the Group, in order to pursue other opportunities. Mr North will leave his position as CEO following an orderly transition process with effect from 30 June 2023.



The Board Chair, Lucio Genovese, will act as Executive Chair on an interim basis and assume leadership of the Group from 1 July 2023.



The Board is pleased to announce the appointment of Nikolay Kladiev, Chief Financial Officer (CFO) of Ferrexpo, as an Executive Director of the Company with effect from the conclusion of the forthcoming AGM.



Lucio Genovese, Chair, commented, "On behalf of the Board, I would like to thank Jim for his significant contribution to Ferrexpo over the last nine years and for his role in leading and shaping the Group's strategy since he assumed leadership in 2020. Jim was appointed to the role of CEO at a time when our focus was on accelerating growth, leading Ferrexpo's decarbonisation plans and furthering cultural development within the business. However, given the situation in Ukraine with the ongoing war and the uncertain outlook, we have had to slow our growth programmes and the CEO's focus has necessarily shifted to that of business continuity and operational resilience.



Jim was a key driver in implementing Ferrexpo's long-term expansion programmes as well as leading the transition to the new high quality DR pellets, driving the decarbonisation pathway for green steel. He has worked tirelessly to support the Group's resilience through the extreme conditions we have had to face during the ongoing war in Ukraine, and prior to this, successfully navigated the significant challenges associated with Covid-19. The Board and all Ferrexpo wish him every success in his future endeavours.



I would like to welcome our CFO Nikolay to the Board. Facilitating effective succession planning has been a recent area of focus at Ferrexpo and we believe this has put us in a good position to achieve business continuity in the light of these Board and Management changes. As interim Executive Chair, I look forward to working closely with Nikolay until such time as the outlook in Ukraine allows for the search for a permanent CEO."



Jim North, outgoing CEO commented, "It has been a privilege to lead Ferrexpo and to be part of the management team for the past nine years. I would like to thank all my colleagues in Ukraine who are brilliant people and who have continued to embrace innovation to ensure Ferrexpo remains a leader in the supply of iron ore pellets for a greener future. The resilience shown by my team to support the business and maintain continuity of operations through this conflict has been incredible. This is testament to the world class

In the best scenario, KEFI will start commercial production in 2025. However, the industry statistics is that if the construction of the mine started, there is 93% probability that the commercial production will happen. Therefore, I expect KEFI market cap to move to approx 50% NPV of TK interest plus 10% NPV SA interest, as the funds start to flow into TK project.

% to NPV depends on the stage of the project. We can expect around 40-50% NPV for TK after the mine/plant construction is started. For SA assets, it would be much lower before permit is received, finance is sorted out, construction is launched.

NickE, what's wrong with the dividend valuation model? How would you value it?

barry7376, you have been posting bearish comments on SHG since October and sub 9.0 price. :)

To me, it makes sense to front-run the predator and increase position at 13.50. The price can double in a few weeks.