Member Info for Equanimity

Haha, Putin's bots are still employed and got a new "General Line" to promote. No arguments, brothers, there will be a point when reality denial is no longer possible. I still find it funny that you waste your time in this obscure chat.

Patience is the main virtue in value investing. I am pretty sure this stock will be around 500 until the next summer. Will it happen on Monday or in January? - who cares :)

No, most likely it will not happen on Monday. I think it will take 1-2 weeks before the institutional money process the news about the Ukraine's victory and start to pile in. The main move though will happen when Putin's gang falls down, and a new Western-friendly government is installed in Russia. It will end the energy crisis in Europe, inflation crisis globally, reduce FXPO production costs, and send commodities (including iron ore) to the stratosphere. Another 2-6 weeks in my opinion. The power disintegration will likely be fast, like an avalanche. No one wants Putin in Russia any longer. Even the radical rights openly demand to hang him in telegram channels.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-10/russian-forces-flee-as-ukrainian-army-makes-swift-eastern-push

Russian troops' front line was very thin. There was no second line of defence. Once you cut through, you can go around behind the front-line without any resistance, cutting supply chains and spreading panic without a single shot. Russian generals never were good organisers, so I wonder if everyone would just flee now.

Ukrainian troops broke through the front line and advanced 50 km inland. The entire Izyum group is under threat of encirclement, supply lines have been cut. Russian troops panic, flee and surrender. Kherson group is cut without vital ammunition supply and is prepared to surrender. I wonder what Putin's bots would say today.

One can look through Telegram channels of Russian war generals, like girkin_igor (you would need some translation service from Russian). Surely, they do not lie. :) I see lots of panic in that quarter.

Speaking about FXPO, I think war is not the main driver anymore. It is pretty clear that Russians will be removed from the country, although it may take another 3-9 months. Logistics (including Black Sea port) will be open again, and production (energy) costs will be back to normal before summer 2023. The main driver will be a commodity super-cycle. Currently, the ratio of commodities to equities prices is at generational lows. Once commodities start to appreciate, miners' multiples will explode. That is a long-term game, though.

I started this thread to check if Putin's bots are still here. I am surprised they are. They are smart guys, and they must understand that their Master is finished. It is a good time to switch allegiance and start looking for a better employment. And even if they got stuck, why waste valuable time on an obscure stock share chat like this? Their time could be better employed somewhere on Facebook/Twitter/Tictoc, where more gullible people reside. And then who knows? Perhaps they persuade these folk to elect new politicians who would force Ukraine to stop and save dear Mr. Putin from imminent downfall. So that he could get some breathing space, rebuild his army, and invade the naive Europe again, haha.

Guys, you are seriously destroying your Karma for mere money. You support the tyrant who keeps all Russians in slavery, kills tens of thousands of people, harms millions, compensating for his childhood humiliation trauma from mediocrity and 155 cm height. You could employ your time better and do something useful for humanity. :)

I like reward-risk, especially now. Things are unfolding quickly. If Russian troops collapse, this stock will quickly double. If there is a stale-mate until the next spring, the price will likely stay where it is now.

Looks like Ukrainian forces finally started counter offensive in the Kherson area. Paradoxically, Ukrainian victory is now the only way to a stable multi-year piece. Russian political system is super-fragile, even a small Ukrainian victory will lead to Putin's downfall and immediate withdrawal of all Russian troops from Ukrainian territory. Ergo quite positive for FXPO.

There is no point talking to Putin's bots here. All social media platforms are infested by them now. They are begging and pleading to force the Ukraine into peace negotiations. Putin knows his days are numbered, and clutching at any straw.

I think Ukraine will take Kherson by the end of August, and then either Russian resistance disintegrates, or there is another stalemate until the end of the year. If Putin dies from the cancer, then the game is over and Russians will withdraw immediately.

The other nice thing is that all profitability reducing factors seem transitory and related to the war, which must finish in one way or another by the end of the year. Cost of production increased mainly due to higher energy prices. It is quite impressive that it is possible to secure energy in Ukraine now, despite the war being top priority. I expect cash cost of production to go back more or less in the future.

The nice thing is that FerrExpo significantly increased its European market share during the war ("Sales mix for the Group's products has been largely limited to European customers since the outbreak of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022"). Once the blockade of Black Sea ports is lifted, they can easily surpass 2021 sales volumes. It is likely that Russian ore will be out of the market, as Russia will be awarded a terrorist state status by the US.

All factors line up. Iron ore starts an uptrend, Russians are going to leave Kherson in the next 2-5 weeks. Out of good will, of course.

And it could be a good time for industrial metals https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/07/25/copper-just-collapsed-time-to-get-long

What was evident one month ago is now in the mainstream news.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-25/long-range-guns-given-to-ukraine-open-door-to-new-phase-of-war

Let me add a couple of good news.

1) As I told before, HIMARS has become a game changer in this war. These are satellite-guided rockets, with the accuracy of 3 meters, moving with 3 x sonic speed up to 300 km, and invulnerable to the Russian air defence system. They are methodically destroying headquarters, artillery depots, clusters of troops, communication lines with high precision, using the US satellite and local Ukraine intelligence for GPS locating of the priority targets. Russian war analytics are in total panic by now. My forecast is that the Ukrainians will take Kherson before September, and the war will finish before the end of the year, with the defeat of the Russian army and possible disintegration of the Russian Federation.

2) In the 7th round of sanctions, Russian steel and iron will be banned in the EU. European market is for Ferrexpo to take.

Good luck and DYOR.

It says: "As of the end of May 2022, the Group had produced 4.4 million tonnes of iron ore pellets, representing a level 8% below the same point in 2021. The Group has realised a combined 0.4 million tonne increase in iron ore inventories in the months of March, April and May 2022, which the Group will look to reduce as logistics constraints ease over time."

So they produced 8% less, and could not sell 0.4 m which gives another 8% or so. My understanding is that they sold 4.0m, or 84% of previous year's production. They also say:

"The Group ... has recently operated in line with the historic level of sales to European markets, in addition to serving excess demand derived from reduced deliveries of Russian iron ore into Europe."

Let's see Q2 results.