Member Info for Equanimity

I tend to agree. I wonder if, after Bucha, even hard core managers, like Odey and Blackrock, will be forced to liquidate their holding. I am bullish long term though, and will be buying again between 100-200.

The world is perfect as it is. All is One. Everyone is Brahman. All division and separation is just a delusion. Practice detachment.

I studied Russian-Ukrainian conflict to a great depth for the past few weeks. Unfortunately, my sad conclusion is that piece (or even cease fire) is not really possible at the current stage. Both sides hope to arrive to a better negotiation position as the time goes. Russians hope to take the entire Donbass region. Ukrainians would never make a concession in regard to the occupied territory, and they hope to inflict more damage to the Russians, both military and economically. After Istambul talks, the popular opinion in both countries marked negotiators as "traitors".

What would be the most probable course of events under such circumstances? One key risk I see is that Russians would not allow any Russian assets to be listed on the international exchanges. The logical step in capital control war is to force all companies with Russian assets to be listed on MOEX only, with dividends paid in roubles. No dividends would be allowed to go to foreign jurisdictions, under a threat of nationalization. In my opinion, that explains a massive premium for POLY on MOEX relative to LSE.

In this scenario POLY management would be forced to accelerate demerging into Russian company (MOEX only) and Kazakh one. Which would put POLY price into 300-400 range, if we assume the Kazakh company will take the entire POLY debt on its balance sheet.

Please criticise, happy to see alternative opinions substantiated by reasoning.

Realization that the war is far from ending. Russians likely do not make a piece before they get the entire Donbass. I really hope that I am wrong here.

Some people strangely believe that if they write something here, it could affect the share price. That's what makes these discussions so noisy. I bet that all people who are writing here do not represent even 0.1% of the trading flow.

Regarding stability in Kazakhstan. In south republics of the former Soviet Union, it is all about the stability of central power. The power in Kazakhstan is pretty stable now, the transition from the former president Nazarbaev to Tokaev is finished. There is some corruption, but it would not affect western companies on a big scale.

As for tenge depreciating 20%, this is straight silly. EUR/JPY/GBP depreciated 10-15% against the dollar, so what? I am not even talking about emerging market countries, which would be the right reference group here.

Well, I lived in Kazakhstan for 16 years. I know it and understand current situation well. It is pretty stable right now and moving in a good direction.

How feasible would it be to split this company into two - one with assets in Russia and one in Kazakhstan? Perhaps we need a lawyer's input here.

If the peace treaty does not materialize for a long time, there might be an immediate upside from the split. Kazakh company would not have any stigma, and its shares would likely be worth more than the current POLY market cap. Russian part of the business can then be dumped and marked close to zero (like POG now).

Most likely, no. Russia will still be sanctioned. It can take 2-5 years to reset back to normal, and maybe a president change in Russia is required for that. However, 600-700 range sounds reasonable to me after peacy treaty.

I like POLY more because it has assets in Kazakhstan. So in the worst case scenario (all Russian assets are seized), it will still be worth around 3 pounds.

Thanks a lot, urai5. Based on your projection, the floor for this share should be around 3.1 GBP. I wonder why the share price is so low then. On a surface, this looks like Kazakh's assets (minus total debt), plus a free "call option" in a form of Russian assets if the worst case scenario does not materialize. And plus (or minus) "Russian stigma", of course :)

Let's assume the worst case scenario - that POLY assets are seized in Russia. (This seems unlikely at this point, but possible if Russia passes the point of no return and has no hopes to return to capital markets. ) The second worst scenario is that assets are not seized, but the profit cannot be moved out of Russia due to capital controls. How much POLY would be worth in these cases? What is the fair price of the company based on only Kazackstan's assets?

What's the story behind PAF? Is there a potential for significant upside? Is it more promising than, say, SHG or HUM? Sorry for naive questions, considering investing here. Thanks.

Bought at 19, hopefully it is not a mistake :)

I like this kind of opportunities. Probably, the board is supported by shareholders with a long term vision who do not care about short term gyrations.

So UGC is trying to get all the freefloat from the market? Don't sell them cheap :)

Looks like Prosperity paid for a couple of those articles. What is their game?

One reason for under performance is that POX hub can get hijacked by UGC. They could shake the board until either they get a merger or preferential treatment for their concentrate. Thoughts?

Funny to see all this panic. If history is of any guide, we will see a corner in pog :)

Converting current price at MoEx (29 RUB) gets 33.6p. Nice profit for those moving shares from LSE to Moscow.

https://www.moex.com/ru/issue.aspx?board=TQBR&code=POGR&utm_source=www.moex.com&utm_term=pog