Sold my holdings. I'll be back.30 Jan 2023 15:18
I am sorry to say it, I love this company and made a lot of money here. However, there are objective headwinds that FXPO will face in the next 3-12 months, which I will list below, so the opportunities costs prevail. (I particularly like reward-risk in junior gold-silver-copper miners at the moment). I am pretty sure FXPO is a good reward-risk long term if you do not look at the price for the next 3 years, and I will buy again when the price falls below 80. Anyway,
Headwinds.
1) It is likely Ukraine takes Zaporozhie and Crimea before autumn. However, it will not finish the war. I expect the war to continue at least for another 1-2 years unless Putin is removed somehow. Russia has the potential to mobilise and send to certain death another 500k-1000k of its citizens. :(
2) Therefore, there will be low production, high electricity costs, disrupted logistics, cash burn for another 1-2 years.
3) It is likely (almost 100%) there will be a global recession at some point in 2023, with S&P reaching a minimum below 3200 in 2024. Industrial metals, like iron, will suffer after the initial euphoria of China reopening. FXPO will also be pressured by the sellout of FTSE250 funds.
Anyway, I'll be back at some point.