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The share price is not informative and does not matter until TK funding is signed. The stock is illiquid and vacillates on random surges of supply and demand. Once funding is signed off, the liquidity will arrive and the price will stabilise. Rule of thumb is that it should be around 50% NPV, and gradually approach 100% as the construction is finished successfully. https://independentspeculator.com/ppss-the-greatest-discovery-of-my-career

I wonder why people are so preoccupied with the price here. It is all about fundamentals.

Yeah, it is amazing that one finds stable gold producers with low AISC and no debt, at P/E around 2-3 in this environment. Much safer than buying explorers, developers and debt-burdened producers.

Even after the credit sign-off, there will be a lot of resistance between 0.7 and 2.0. There are traumatised people who, after holding for many years, will be selling at an average cost price or slightly higher, just to get rid of the emotional burden. That's a human nature. So the stock will be lagging until the long-term holders are replaced by the professionals playing the PPSS game (The Pre-Production Sweet Spot) independentspeculator.com/the-lowest-risk-strategy-for-the-highest-gains-ive-ever-seen.

"KEFI Gold and Copper Plc (AIM: KEFI) announces that following the appointment of 3PPB LLC ("3PPB") as the Company's non-UK investor relations adviser"

Any idea what this is about?

http://www.3ppb.com/about.html

"We believe we have the unique knowledge and crucial skills to provide value-adding corporate solutions for our clients in a broad variety of areas , including investor relations, merger and acquisition advisory and corporate restructuring."

It is nice that Ethiopian Minister of Mines goes to Perth, Australia to learn from the practices of the top mining jurisdiction. In general, both NBE and EMM attitude looks pro-business and they seem very interested in starting things going.

Why would you like to sell? I am happy to collect dividends for the next 7 years (and more if the mine life is extended). Any upside from WK is welcome too.

HAA mentioned in one of his Q&A sessions that KEFI's 25% share in Saudi assets could be valued by an independent party and then sold to ARTAR. I wonder what the valuation could be in the current environment. Surely it should exceed 20M USD and unblock the TK deal in the worst case scenario.

I think Ramula open pit could start producing already in 2025. Maybe I am too optimistic about that. I have no idea how long the permitting and resettlement would take. The construction part is pretty straightforward.

One thing to keep in mind is that with further drilling, WK has a potential to reach 5 MOz resource. That would make it interesting to one of the majors. I think it would be ideal in current conditions for Shanta to sell WK (or spin out) for anything between 100-300M USD.

Agreed, it is all about time horizon and risk profile. To make it simpler, one can think of Shanta's West Kenya project as Kouroussa, but 3 times bigger, higher grade and lower AISC. Once WK is deployed (which would take 2 years and capex), SHG would be +200KOz producer like HUM with lower AISC. HUM is producing now, which is a big plus. However, it is facing risks which I need to understand better - like stability of production and possible issues in Mali. Also, in an unlikely, but possible scenario, gold can drop back to 1600, which, combined with high rates, can derail debt-ridden companies like HUM. On that basis, SHG risk-reward looks more attractive to me now. I can change my opinion though with more data.

One can argue that SHG is even more undervalued than HUM (in my portfolio, SHG weight is higher than HUM)

Shanta:

Market Cap £106M

Production +100k Oz 1057 AISC over the next 5 years

Zero debt by now

West Kenya development 1.8MOz at 5.5g/t, $340M NPV, scoping 105 kOz p/a, AISC 665$

I think WK should be spin out to recognise the true value of the company. If we compare WK deposit to peers, its capitalisation would be north of 100M. Plus a cash cow - NL + Sinigda with 60M EBITDA for free.

A good example is a royalty agreement between Cabral Gold and Osisko Gold Royalties. Osisko will pay Cabral a total of US$5M for a 1% net smelter return (NSR) royalty on the Cuiú Cuiú gold project. Cuiú Cuiú is located in Northen Brasil, arguably a "safer" jurisdiction. Now, compare Cuiú Cuiú and Tulu Capi

1) Cuiú Cuiú is still at PFS stage expected to be done by Q4.

2) Cuiú Cuiú 21.6 M @ 0.87 g/t gold (604,000oz) and Inferred Resources of 19.8 Mt @ 0.84 g/t gold (534,500 oz). Tulu Kapi 20.2 M @ 2.65g/t gold, containing 1.72 million ounces.

Royalty deal would be a great alternative to equity raises or cheap warrants (provided the current miserable state of the stock market). It must be quite possible after the paperwork goes through and future royalties are de-risked.

Thanks bangrak, that's clear. It means their EBITDA in Jul-Sep quoter could print close to zero, unless the metal prices rebound. The costs and capex per quarter are around 25M. They have enough cash for 6 quarters of the severe "bear market".

Any idea why the company keeps so high cash reserves over the years? That does not make economic sense to me, especially in the current environment, where there are so many dirty cheap investment opportunities. It could be paid as a dividend, or share buy backs could be increased?

Good morning! Could you please help me to find the history/graph for 4E gross basket price mentioned in quarter report? Thanks!

COO, not CEO.

The interesting thing is this: "74,911,715 Ordinary Shares of the 149,823,430 ordinary shares of 0.1 pence each ("Ordinary Shares") held by Winchcombe Ventures Limited have been transferred to his personal account at a price of 0.9 pence per share. Mr Solbrandt has a one third beneficial interest in Winchcombe Ventures Limited".

The number of shares is 50%, not one third. Which means he bought someone out?

Looks like a coordinated attack to move the share price down. People are desperately trying to buy at a zero-liquidity market before the train leaves. Sorry gentlemen, if you want a decent size, you have to pay at the ask. :)

On a 1-3 year horizon, FXPO is likely to generate a decent return. However, I see better risk-reward opportunities elsewhere at the moment, especially in uranium and gold miners. A typical example is Shanta Gold - with 100k Oz annual production, its projected EBIDTA is 60M USD, with market capitalisation of 100M USD. What's the point of being exposed to Ukrainian war if there are safer opportunities elsewhere with much lower P/E?

Upside could be 100-150%. No expertise to estimate credit approval risk.