Member Info for Equanimity

Anyone knows who took new 750,000,000 shares? Is this information publicly available?

They are paying for these shares from their pockets, @0.6.

Harry and John plan to spend 300k of their own money to keep their KEFI's share undiluted. They would not do that if they did not believe that TK finance will be closed soon. The share dilution is around 15%. If the share price drops to 0.6 tomorrow, everyone can follow Harry's example and buy 15% more shares. I don't think we'll be that lucky, though.

There is a lot of discussion on this board about the second bank approval. Chances are it has already happened. If you look at the last few KEFI interviews, Harry said that the lead bank approved in December. The RNS confirmation of conditional final credit committee approval from the lead lender happened only on 10th of Jan. It takes time to move the already finalised decision through the bottlenecked pipeline of a cautious beauracratic organisation. That crossing of t-s and dotting the i-s. Then Harry states that second bank approved in February, and the ball goes to the equity parties and lead contractors.

Of course, the deal is not the deal until it is official. Do your own thinking and probability analysis :)

Harrogate4, I don't like "advertising" on other boards. If you are interested, look into my recent posts. Just a bit of warning, this stock is quite illiquid, it took me many weeks to accumulate a decent exposure. Maybe it is already too late to enter with size. Only today did it move by more than 10% without me doing anything. DYOR and good luck!

I sold my holding in SHG. I could write about the difficulty in predicting the outcome when corruption of governments and institutions is involved. But the main reason is that I found a stock with a much better asymmetric reward-to-risk and share price depressed by the recent selling by a distressed institution (like SHG was by liquidation of Odey Asset Management). I wish good luck to all. Vote No and fight!

Sorry, @0.75, fast typing.

During last week, I tried to test if there are any big sellers left, by placing 2-5m bids in the 0.69-0.75 range. Almost nothing has been taken, and only @0.57 some small profit-taking punters became interested. The road upwards seems finally clear to me.

When KEFI price made a re-rate attempt last time (on 5th Oct 2023, after the National Bank of Ethiopia waived KEFI from foreign exchange and capital controls), the move was aborted by RAB (former distressed KEFI institutional shareholder) liquidating 3.5% of its holding into the rise. It took a few months for the market to absorb that. I guess we would be much higher otherwise, probably, north of 1p. I watched a similar situation in Shanta Gold, where the liquidation of the Odey Asset Management (sexual scandal related) depressed the price for a few months. That's why we are still where we are.

It is highly probable that KEFI will reach the 4-5p range this year, provided things go well in Saudi. Edison group overview is understandably conservative. Almost any feasibility study you see now is still based on the assumption of 1600-1800$ gold price in the next few years. However, the previous 2011 high in gold adjusted for inflation is $3390, and we are at the beginning of another loosening monetary cycle that led to the aforementioned high.

It is encouraging that the Federal Government of Ethiopia has already invested in the TK project. That makes it extremely unlikely for the syndicate members to backtrack on their promises at this stage. My subjective estimation of TK finance going through is around 95%. Why is it not in the share price? I think it is a psychological bias that does not let people think straight and see the facts objectively. Our thinking is inert and past-based. People may think, ‘15 years of waiting has been too long, so why would it happen now?’ Also, those who knew KEFI fundamentals are already fully invested up to their risk limits (and some are deep underwater). New investors are not yet attracted. So there is no new money to move the price according to the new probabilities and realities. This is clearly a unique situation, with 4-8x bugger in the waiting and quite low risk.

I remember I wanted to invest in HE1 when it was at 0.19 or so. However, I decided not to, because I did not have the expertise in the project, and I also did not have time to dig into the details. KEFI situation is similar.

Forgot to say, @0.69.

As an experiment, I put a 3m bid this morning, and decided not to move it. Only 815,207 shares have been filled during the day. There are no serious sellers around.

Why RNS is not published on this website?

Silver going to 30-35 would be enough to double.

Reinstalled my position here. At a time of renewed banking difficulties (New York Community Bank) and tech stocks finding their Minsky moment, it is a danger not to be exposed.

Well, I have been buying and continue to buy for many months here. And, unlike you, Fukutu, I am not trying to depress the price. I have been taking what people want to sell to me. In the long run, scaring people out in this chat is a stupid strategy (if it works at all). The more investors, the higher the price will eventually go. It could be similar to HE1 rise from 0.19 to 2.11 in just a few days after the second bank credit sign-off. And then would it really matter if you bought at 0.60 instead of 0.64?

There'll be a lot of volatility for sure. When it moves up 10% on no news, and gold/silver/peers stagnant, one has to sell. And vice versa.

I usually do not trade frequently, but this one I sold. The move just does not seem right. Happy to buy back around 510.

It moves relentlessly and smoothly. Someone get caught short?

If the claim is confirmed by the Supreme Court, what would it mean for the company? Minus US$125 million? What is the timeframe for the settlement?