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Mate, lots of ppl moved you to the filters I bet because of spamming. Let's respect each other.

I see a lot of videos with macro/sector portfolio managers saying that soon it will be a one in a lifetime opportunity to start buying cheap gold mining stocks, but now it is too early.

I guess "too early" and "too late" are not that far apart. :)

I have no idea, but logically, mcap is 30 mln, and cost of financing is 320 mln. As a rational investor, what equity share would you claim?

Like Soros said, "invest first, investigate later". So I invested some, now I investigate. I do not care if share goes up or down in the short term, so I am filtering out all the "ramper-deramper" commenting guys. I want to know the truth, and I am talking only to people who are ready to substantiate their opinions.

Personally, I do not like "details will be provided on signing of definitive documentation" and "convertible subordinated loans". This sounds better though, "These will be repayable or convertible at KEFI's election". I was wondering if KEFI could avoid 10:1 dilution in the future.

BTW, I could not find a new presentation at the website: "KEFI (AIM: KEFI), the gold exploration and development company with projects in the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, announces that a new investor presentation has been uploaded to the Company's website: https://www.kefi-goldandcopper.com"

One possible misconception I observed here is the belief that once the finance plan for Tulu Kapi is signed, all problems are solved. No one questioned the costs of financing.

We all know how difficult it is to get financing in the current climate, with the Fed tightening and capital withdrawing from the private markets. So I would ask myself - who is going to commit US$320mln, without firm guarantees, with a risk of the situation in Ethiopia deteriorating prior to 2025? And, if they commit, what would the terms be? If I committed money in the current environment with such a risk, I would make sure I would get 80-90% of all future profits from the mine. So, in the ideal world, if the documents are finally signed, what would be the rate of interest? And, since KEFI management is already committed via recent RNS, would not the lenders get an extra leverage to push for the last minute lending cost increase? Having some experience in tough negotiations, I think that could perfectly explain the delay.

Just a food for thought, don't throw stones :)

There must be a trust issue. How do you know they are not overoptimistic for whatever serves their ends? I have seen a few disinformation campaigns in the past.

Anyway, I made a small allocation here, but I am reluctant to add more to a company with headquarters in Cyprus.

Honest answer, paying dividends now would be reckless. FXPO needs to survive until the end of the war (summer 2023?), with both production and logistics under the the question.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-15/even-hardest-hit-ukraine-steelmaker-doesn-t-want-peace-deal-yet

Bought a bit today, thanks to PortfolioPower for the recommendation on HUM board. Any other recommendations for small gold miners on LSE (under 50M cap) with high leverage to gold price and a sound debt situation? Thanks.

No risk. Think about it. They siezed oil producer, oil refiner, engine and track makers, and industrial company making electric equipment. Company owners (Kolomoisky) are possibly associated with Russian interest and could block critical military and energy supply. Now, what about Ferrexpo? It produces iron pellets which are exported (no iron production in Ukraine). The last thing Ukraine military need are pellets. What's the point of siezing FXPO? Lastly, the siezure is done according to martial emergency law: "Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, said the government will either return the holdings after martial law ends or offer compensation." No expropriation, just alligning interests to the country military needs.

If this bear market rally continues (despite the rumour of lifting zero-covid policy was unconfirmed) and Ukraine takes Kherson then I can easily see the price go back to 145-155. If Putin suddenly "disappears", then it would reach 200. If nothing of those happens and iron ore remains put, then back below 100. What are your projections?

It gets up in the morning, and gets depressed in the afternoon. I guess there is an institutional US-based seller out there.

Slater, no ego here. :) I don't wish you to appear in a situation where you can show your bravery, be maimed and perish. But I wish you more maturity and love to the people, yourself and the world.

Slater, you probably don't realise that anyone protesting against the war in Russia would get severe internal organs and brain damage, in the best case scenario. Would you go protesting at such a price?

Yes. The FCF could still be negative due to high electricity and low iron prices, but I bought today whatever I could. Happy to add more if it goes to the 80-85. This is a long game.

There'll be enough electricity at some point. Key reason for weakness is iron ore prices collapsing and imminent recession expectations. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-31/iron-ore-s-collapse-deepens-as-china-factory-data-deals-new-blow

I guess we will see from the Q3 and Q4 reports. There will probably be some cash burn due to low production, high energy costs, and low iron prices until the war finishes.

Agreed, the only way to finish this war is internal disintegration in Russia. With Putin gone and mildly pro-Western government installed. Or Russia disintegrating into independent federal subjects.

This is from the blog of the Russian general Igor Girkin, the commander of all separatist forces in the Donbass region, translated: "On all fronts, the enemy is preparing to attack and is pulling up additional forces. Personally, I cautiously assume it is likely: the main attack on the Zaporozhye front, auxiliary - between Donetsk and Gorlovskaya, in the Dokuchaevsk region, in the Berislav direction of the Kherson front, and also directly in the Kherson region. I do not know the timing of the offensive, but I believe that it will hardly give our troops time to strengthen their positions and regroup troops in the areas threatened by the Armed Forces of Ukraine."