Member Info for Equanimity

This board is probably the most unhealthy on LSE. :) I am invested in a few other shares, and the comments on their boards are usually company-specific and up to the point. On some boards (like EDV), there are almost no comments because the market cap is so big that people do not believe the price can be manipulated by posting.

Lots of people here are psychologically addicted. They know they will get negative feedback. Perversely, it is a benefit they are looking for. Being in a battle and getting attention.

Some are addicted to the board because they are over-invested. I was one of those. At some point, I owned more than x.x% of the company. I was very lucky to liquidate it before the last placement into the illiquid market. Recently, I bought back about 1/5 of the shares I previously owned. My initial intention was to keep the powder dry until another liquidity crisis, as in 2008. But the liquidity crisis might or might not happen. So I bought when I saw obvious signs of distressed selling.

Now that my exposure is reduced, I don't care that much whether the mine will be built on time. I also do not care about price fluctuations unless the project's fundamental reality is altered.

The receipt is simple. Do not overinvest, and you will not need to read all the rubbish here and post every day. As for the addicted people, they can be weaned off only by the lack of attention and feedback.

Good luck, everyone!

I own HOC. I do not like Fresnillo because of low public flow (the Baillères family is the majority owner of Fresnillo, holding approximately 75% of the company's shares). AMLO sees the Baillères family as "oligarchies" and exploiters. Mexico is no longer a safe jurisdiction.

I have bought a bit today around 1.0. There is definitely a distressed seller in the background. I'll be buying more between 0.6-0.8 if nothing goes wrong.

I bet I'll be able to buy in the 0.6-0.8 region, which would give a fair margin of safety against the situation in Ethiopia and management's unscrupulous practices. With the AI bubble crashing and gold tanking, everything is possible. I traded through the liquidity crises of 2008 and 2020, and they were fantastic opportunities.

Thanks, Target6p, the following is useful information.

"A limited notice to proceed (for approximately A$30.1 million) has been issued by KEFI and execution of the final contract, already fully agreed, is anticipated with the closure of the full package of documentation with the broader project syndicate members in the next few weeks."

The RNS confirming the execution of the final contract, with the financing schedule, could provide a clue that things are on track.

The remoteness of Tigray and the proximity of Oromia are not the defining factors. Civil war almost always topples the government and leads to general instability and lawlessness around the country. The prerequisite for the execution of any project is the rule of law and the ability of the government to enforce it, unless the company has resources to run its own private army :) Anyway, I have zero knowledge about the real situation on the ground apart from what one can get from the news.

I looked through the recent RNSs. I could not find anywhere that the contract with Lycopodium is formally signed. I wonder what is blocking them.

The current KEFI price definitely does not reflect the derisked project and the first pour in 2027. The market is smelling a rat somewhere. But where? Is it about the conditions precedent to the drawdown of the debt facility? Can the finance be derailed by the escalation of hostilities in Tigray? I do not know. But I am reluctant to buy the stock at the moment.

The last RNS I find particularly distasteful. The management generously allocated itself circa 5% of the company in case it succeeds (and if it fails, equity holders carry all the losses). For what service? If one believes them, everything is already sorted out, and the mine building is 100% delegated to the contractor. There is nothing else for the management to do. Effectively, the company is a hostage of the management's selfish interest. That certainly does not add popularity to the KEFI shares.

Hi Robjm66, nice to see you again. What is your current take on Tigray's situation and possible escalation in Ethiopia? Thanks!

I will likely not gain popularity with this post, especially given that my selling during the last few days pinned the price in the 1.79-1.85 region when it was expected by many to appreciate on the signing ceremony and looming finance closure. I’ll give my reasoning here, and you’ll decide for yourself how sound they are.

The main reason is that limited cross-border clashes become the most probable scenario, with a renewed full-scale war conflict in Tigray assuming a non-zero (low-to-medium) probability. Like many here, I initially dismissed Rob’s warning. It took me a few days of digging into the details for the selling decision to crystallise.

Now, how is it relevant to the TK mine, which is more than 1000 km away from the border and almost fully financed by now?

I’ve seen through a few wars, and I must assure you that it would not be business as usual. There would be security issues, the contractors’ unwillingness to go to Ethiopia, instability of the government, wartime expropriations, etc. The full-scale war is not the main scenario at the moment, and I hope it will not materialise. However, even the limited border clashes would have a substantial impact on the investment climate. Not gambling here.

Regarding the finance, Harry was fortunate enough to secure 240m from lenders and 20m from Chancery before the escalation started. However, it may not be a straight path from here. I have not seen the detailed documentation, but there may be force majeure clauses from the lenders covering war risks. The remaining 20m may not be straightforward as well. If I were the CEO of a streaming company, I would not sign off until the situation in Ethiopia stabilises. Harry can do another 30m placing, but it would require willing buyers on the same unstable background. At what price? I really hope I am wrong here, and the finance will be fully signed this week or next. Kudos to Chancery, they are really brave guys.

I do not doubt that the TK mine will eventually be built. There is huge potential, and I may be losing all the upside. I wish you all here to make money.

Kudos to Rob! If you have to panic, panic first. :) I agree with him that following daily developments in Tigray and the Horn of Africa would consume a lot of time.

Cheers

Anyone who read Daniel Kahneman's works on behavioural economics and decision-making would understand and empathise with Rob's decision. Humans have a very low threshold for liquidating a winner compared to a loser. 5% chance of losing one's paper gain might be enough to close the position. The unverified YouTube video could be a trigger point.

Lagging price is normal and provides an opportunity. We observed similar dynamics recently:

RNS 6/Aug/25, price=0.53: Both co-lending banks have now approved the expanded US$240 million finance package at credit committee level. One bank has also completed board ratification, while the other is currently in the process of doing so.

RNS 2/Sep/25, price=0.71: US$240 million expanded debt facility now formally offered by both co-lenders.

Then the price more than doubled on virtually no other substantial input as a few new investors became aware of the opportunity.

"We convinced our banks to commit first… to bring more choices to the table at better pricing.” That's quite an achievement.

Yes, BigBiteNow, the future options are infinite in this gold-on-steroids environment. Harry's hands could be tied by lenders wanting 100% certainty now, before full sign-off. That could delay the signing process by 1-2 weeks, so no need to get overexcited. Anyway, I do not mind a bit of waiting, and I do not doubt we will see 6-9p in 2026. Even 9% royalty is not a problem in the grand scheme of things. Let Harry optimise and come up with the best deal.

Chancery's deal has a better IRR than buying KEFI shares outright. Mithrel is damn right by assembling another streaming entity. The only ambiguous point could be KEFI Ethio Prefs denominated in local currency. If that currency cannot be spent before the commencement of the lending banks' drawdowns, then another royalty may be needed to replace part of Ethio Prefs. Those fine points are likely to be finalised now.

Thanks, BBN. Yes, it was the key sentence in the entire RNS. The detailed documentation for the Equity package is complete. The lenders probably gave an unofficial nod.

The gap will close once "the detailed documentation is finalised and approved by project finance lenders." The execution risk for the open-pit mine is almost zero AFAIK.

I wonder if the new shares were bought by institutional investors. It could be another vote of confidence for the company.

This company is not a for-profit entity; it is a platform for spiritual practice.

"Don't be attached to being an actor.

And don't be attached to the fruit of the action".

Hare Harry!

The real heart is not in making people comfortable with their counterproductive behaviour, but in facilitating positive change. Cheers.

I like Gurdjieff's approach - sometimes one needs to be harsh to wake up a person from their slumber of automated unconscious behaviour, question their internal motives, and rationally change.

From my perspective, 1% of this chat is marginally useful, and I am grateful to a few informed posters who share their thoughts. 99% of the content is rubbish, sometimes intentionally misleading. The overall signal-to-noise ratio is low.

I cannot see what KG is writing, as I filtered him long ago. Unfortunately, it is not possible to remove the threads started by filtered folk.

If this chat can affect prices at all (which I doubt, since 0.1% of investors that can really move prices do not read all this), then I would bet that idiots like KG do more damage to the share price than all derampers combined. :)

I have no idea what the price will be the day after signing, and I don't care. What I know is that at $4200 gold, the conservative KEFI 5% NPV is around 14.3p per share. It is likely that the share price will be 50-75% NPV on the day the funds start flowing.