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No. It is when we can report on the full data set for the 43. They aren’t going to publish when 27 is hit. That means it’ll be out at the end of December ish.

37 responders with a few complete responders would be nice…..

One point to note from the Budget. It had been feared that the (40%) exemption of AIM shares from IHT would be completely eliminated. In fact the IHT tax rate for AIM shares “held in all settings” (presumably including ISAs and pensions) is going to be 20% in future.

So, although the concept that holding AIM shares would allow assets to be passed completely free of IHT (effectively outside the estate) has now gone, there is still a 20% advantage for holding AIM shares as opposed to other assets.

Taking undrawn pension funds into the value of estates is, however, a massive move for many - and the combination of these things may lead to more AIM shares being held in pension funds?

I’d say you were irrational. Ultimately the value of the science will be shown in the share price. That will only happen in a sustainable fashion with hard data. Everything else is just noise, especially with a Chancellor encouraging people to sell and take capital gains before she speaks and threatening to change the IHT rules.

Not very pro-growth…..but that is Labour lying again for you…..

Would you call yourself a depressive? 🙄

I don’t think your rider applied at all - though I do agree that the central expectation is firmly to complete the work in Q4. The point surely is that the company is not in direct control of the timings of events needed to complete the trial.

Mia…..they explicitly countenanced the possibility that SCIB1 results might just drift into January - so plainly the central expectation is for the end of December.

I’d also note that, since they intend to make a huge fuss about them in PR terms, that points to the first few days in January as most likely in my book.

Stakis,

It was announced as “seven months” on 12th June, but the Company indicated December at the AGM so, best guess, they expect to hear by 31/12.

Fair point…..but I have previously had a share in a company which announced something between Christmas and New Year - and the price rose 35% before the holidaymakers were back.

Generally analysts will do a sector update for publication in the first few days of January. Granted much of that will have been written in advance, but it isn’t set in stone.

Grabbing column inches in the weekend papers, when there may be a dearth of other news, may have some value too.

Ratcliffe,

The terms are definitely all set. The evaluating company has paid $1mn for a six month option on them.

Burble,

I should add that the unknown Glymab partner who will decide in December (perhaps for announcement in January) has a fully-negotiated deal ready to go. They are simply making a yes/no decision on whether to press the button.

The Genmab update is less certain to produce a decision point, as it is an annual update at year end.

Finally, just to confirm…..it is clear that the total data set for SCIB1 will not be complete until the very end of the year or possibly the opening weeks of 2025.

So there could be a very busy few weeks.

I’d also note that Modi-1 was rather out of focus in the AGM discussion, but I don’t think we should assume it will be less exciting. It is clear that the indications (head and neck and renal) in which Modi-1 is being trialled are determined by being indications for which checkpoints are an approved treatment. That does NOT mean that Modi-1 won’t work on other cancers…..far from it. Note that Modi-1 may have much wider application than SCIB1, which is melanoma-specific.

Interestingly J-MC thinks there is “huge potential” here as these are a pioneering set of platforms……and, for Phil, the objective is all about creating and setting-up optionality for the company.

This thought was the sub-text to my AGM question encouraging them to consider how all the strands can be pulled together before people in the AGM room start pegging out and/or retiring. Time is of the essence for everybody.

The 31st is also a Tuesday. Half a day’s trading - and plenty of time to grab press coverage of the New Year stock tips…..and medical “things to watch in 2025”.

Hi Cleaner,

Such details as there are were here: https://www.scancell.co.uk/Data/Sites/1/media/publications/rns/genmab-press-release-24-oct-22-final-g-2.pdf

I’ve have to leave it to others to make a good guess at the size of the relevant milestone payments but, since they could total up to $208 mn for each of three possible products, something in the $15-20mn range doesn’t feel an unreasonable expectation.

Not enough attention is being paid (here or on ADVFN) to the antibody deals.

They expect their annual update from GenMab in December re their work on SC127. That may or may not lead to milestone payments in the near term, but they aeem to be pretty confident that things are progressing to plan.

Similarly, they expect the exclusive deal on the undisclosed antibody to produce an outcome by December and, importantly, the deal on that is already fully negotiated if the pharma major wants to take it forward. I would expect that to translate into an announcement in January, accompanied by an initial cash payment of c.$10mn.

And they plainly want to take SC134 forward- the only issue is whether that is best done alone or best done with a partner.

Finally, I wonder whether Lindy returning to the science full time is driven as much by the opportunity to assess the details of the data in relation to the mechanisms of action of the vaccines etc…….she made some rather pointed comments that Scancell likes to think deeply about the reasons why things work in some situations but don’t work in others - whereas the Modernas in the industry just throw more money at it.

I thought Lindy was very clear on results timing for SCIB1. They expect it to be late in the year, possibly slipping just into January.

Much better, in my view, to release in January than in the 4-5 weeks before Christmas…..because institutions will progressively be closing their books towards year end and are more likely to take new positions in January.

Question from the floor about the funding runway etc. Very pointed and quite aggressive.

The answer indicated they expect to have a stack of options to raise money and they were entirely relaxed about the cash. Talking to Sath, Cossery and others afterwards, they are going to be data driven on strategic options and it is clear the new CEO will bring a very strong commercial focus to that decision-making.

I can tell you there are six patients (all recent) in the renal cohort. Note that head & neck and renal are chosen because checkpoints are approved first line treatments.

Also had a good chat to Diggle.....advised him to tell his analyst in Sing to upgrade "derisory".....

They'd had a board meeting just before the AGM. No clues that I heard on what was covered, save that two people used exactly the same phrase in relation to questions about NASDAQ, from which I conclude this is towards the bottom of their strategic options.

Busy at present. May post more tomorrow. Hi to CW and ipad 👋

When I last enquired a year or two ago, Calculus had just wound up one of their funds which had triggered some selling. I think their remaining stake was split across another three or four funds, and they were not selling those at that time. I’d guess the recent sale was due to one of those being wound up - so they will continue to hold the shares in the remaining two or three until those in turn are wound up.

Re ipad’s question, Calculus is (I think) operated by Investec, but needed to notify as over 3%. I suspect that the apparent late notification is due to some quirk of their relationship.

Well that RNS at least clarifies the source of recent supply. As I recall it, their holding is tranched into different funds so they sell only when these tranches have to be monetised. I’d guess (from the timing of the announcement) they may be largely done for now - but those attending the AGM may be able to find out more detail?