Member Info for emptyend

I’ve bought shares in a company at 29p and watched them double, quadruple and reach a high of £23.90 without one material retreat.

And I’ve bought shares at 15p, and then 8p and watched them fall to 2p…..and then rise to 24p.

And I’ve bought shares at 2p, seen them rise to 33p……and then fall to 0.06p from where they have risen five-fold to 0.3p in just a few weeks.

I’ve managed to buy some of these shares at the lows and to sell some of them near the highs (though never enough, of course)…….but all these different patterns with large price changes were intrinsically unpredictable and often driven by external circumstances.

And so it is with Scancell. I’ve mostly bought at 5.5p, 6p, 8p, 9p, 11p and 13p, including placings, pullbacks etc. But I’ve yet to sell a single share because I am totally aware that news might emerge at any point, and it is impossible to guess when that might occur.

As with all such companies, you can take the “option premium” from buyers for a very long time, and appear to be a genius (to the bloke in the mirror)……but ultimately hthe question is : “is the company strategically in the right place to create shareholder value?” - and the answer to that is emphatically “yes”…..

…….only this morning comes news of another deal in China from a pharma company selling parts of its portfolio in order to focus on novel cancer treatments: https://thebambooworks.com/news-wrap-hutchmed-sells-non-core-asset-to-focus-on-cancer-treatment/

So, with its present management and shareholding structure, Scancell is well placed to assess wether its portfolio is best progressed itself or in partnership/ownership of another. It is just tricky to tell when such decisions will bear fruit.

You’ll have to guess, I’m afraid.

Have a lovely NY in Norfolk 😁

Yup…..14.5mn shares at 0.345. Someone is keenish…..

Spare a thought for the marketmakers at New Year. 2023 & 2024 have been a rotten year for them, but I see they seem to have had a winning time in December.

Remember what I told you, James, nearly two years ago…..😉

Quite so, Ruck. I’m only about 6% pa ahead at this point, which is not at all what I had in mind.

But the biggest problem lies with the London stock market, which is “cheap” by international standards across the board. And it isn’t an attractive location to list because of this. And it isn’t a good place to raise risk capital either - and hasn’t been for a decade.

The reasons for this are two-fold: 1) over-regulation, following the 2008 financial crisis and 2) ESG and DE&I dogmas, imposing costs on companies and requiring them to prioritise pleasing the box-tickers in PIRC etc before they think about returns to shareholders or even developing the company itself. This latter aspect is particularly insidious, as it infects all institutional investors and actively discourages their fund managers from taking risk.

But ultimately industry deals are a backstop for companies like Scancell - and true value will emerge from that source, whatever value the “stock market” may put on it prior to a deal.

Happy New Year, folks.

I suspect it was both a buy and a sell. 😬

HTH

He’s been filtered by me for months now…..presumably posting some form of dishonest abuse again. 🙄

He strengthens the team by sharpening the commercial focus - in particular by ensuring that option for development etc are assessed from the viewpoint of the shareholders, not from the viewpoint of pure science.

He made it clear at the AGM that looking at these aspects is his main priority (and many of us have repeatedly pointed to such a need in the company)

I’d also note that some people here seem temperamentally unsuited to holding shares and have literally got no idea of how a public company works.

Tf,

See elsewhere that you are in Koh Chang. Love that island. Will be off to Pak Nam Pran in a few weeks....lets hope that SCLP get off to a good start in 2025!

Some might think there is nothing going on……but if that were true, why does Radoff keep buying?

Ruck,

As far as I can see, it is simply a matter of a sensible assessment of all the available data. I’m not interested in pointless spats with people who seek to disagree just for the hell of it.

Have a great Christmas, all. 👍

Drivel

C11,

Re your claims in your 17.18:

1. the share price is absolutely no guide at all to the chances of a takeover bid. In this sector (probably more than any other) there have been repeated examples of deals done at prices very substantially higher than the previous closing share price…….by which I mean large multiples of the previous share price.

2. Note, re your “not necessarily” that my use of the word “likely” clearly indicates that already

RuckRover needly summarises the position - and I completely agree with the figures and facts in his 04.35.

Yes…..obviously Redmile + Vulpes + board have about half the shares, so they would need to agree. But I’m sure that, if the price is right, they would do so.

Scancell isn’t structurally vulnerable (unlike some) but it is probably massively undervalued - and that creates a strong incentive to approach the Board to agree a bid.

We will see none of that, however, unless the Board is forced into disclosing an approach - which it may well be if approached by a reputable company with funding in place. On balance, though, I’d guess it will be completely quiet unless a deal is actually done.

But it is always worth pondering what it would take to get Redmile/Vulpes/Board approval……and I would put money on the Board already having a very clear view on that already - both for the whole and for the individual platforms and other parts. Those values will be nowhere near current market.

The Telegraph today has read a Peel Hunt report:

“ One-third of smaller British companies are at risk of being picked off the stock market in a takeover next year after a slump in UK share prices, a City investment bank warned.

Peel Hunt said small and mid-cap companies worth up to £250m listed on the Alternative Investment Market (AIM) were highly vulnerable to acquisition in 2025 - with one in three at risk.

It comes as stock valuations have plunged this week amid expectations that the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England will make fewer interest rate cuts next year.

According to Peel Hunt, 32pc of AIM companies with a market cap of £50m to £250m have seen their share price fall by more than 30pc in the last 12 months leaving them ripe for an approach from a buyer next year.”

I have little doubt that Scancell is firmly in that group. Someone else is likely to reap the benefit of decades of scientific advance and hard work.

Not necessarily. Fundamental news in thin markets can more prices substantially. I’ve held shares before in companies that have released important news just after Christmas - and seen them rise 30% by New Year.

VD,

So, you would rather have had a scenario where the CEO arrives in the job and literally days later takes part in ….err….a “heavily discounted placing” which he had played no part in setting up? It would then have looked like a carpetbagger had turned up and slashed the offer price to benefit himself.

I don’t think that would have been a smart idea - and I’m absolutely certain you and others would have complained about it.

As TF suggests, there will be an options package in due course, set (I expect) at a higher price than the placing. Ideally I’d like to see a market purchase but then (as others have pointed out) the company doesn’t get the cash - and there is every chance that the new CEO is considered to be privy to inside information (given he would have had detailed briefings before joining).

So it seems the volume increase was actually the EBT buying shares. Whilst I’d prefer it to have been a third party, the timing of this move is interesting….

Interesting to see the volume pick-up, coinciding with a supposed bid for Tullow by Kosmos.

Sector consolidation looks to be on the menu for 2025.

oh do **** off!!! 🤬🤬🤬🤬

you asked a personal question, which i answered very clearly. you are a timewasting troll and fully deserve to be ignored as i’m about to do.

i didn’t hold scancell in 2013….or indeed anytime before 2020.

the issue wasn’t underwritten. they don’t need to pay 7-8% when 40% is locked up by board reps.

take your perennial faux confusion and sod off 👋👋👋👋

ps….in fact the principles of issuing debt and issuing equity are very similar - but i wouldn’t want to confuse your poor little head any further with a lengthy explanation. 🙄