Member Info for elir71

Despite the "SELL" labels, given the trade price versus bid offers, then I'd be pretty sure they're almost all buys.

Nevertheless the spread has opened up by dropping the bid, probably at another attempt at shaking the tree to trigger stop losses. I can't see that working twice in one day. Doenst change the fundamentals

Kion I quite agree that any rational analysis should include and assessment of risk. Whereas we would all wish to see sucess every enterprise has potential for failure and we should be aware of these at the time of investment and review it as new information comes available to see if the exposure to risk sits within our own investment objectives.

I confess I dont know much about Limerick nor the Oil , I've been looking more at Wales and Greenland|

These are how I would see the risk

Wales
1. less than anticipated gold reserve
2. not having funds to exploit reserves
3. regulatory problems like restrictive planning permissions
4. world gold price drop
5. so much gold being mined, it loses its premium
6. inherent risk of mining accidents , unexpected conditions etc

controls on the above risks
1. we should have information on this from the currently conducted tests
2. it seems the necessary funds are available
3. this remains a risk <<-
4. possible this remains a risk <<-
5. could be mitigated through sale of 100% welsh gold bullion. If it has nominal value as currency then exempt from CGT
6. possible but risk controlled by using experienced staff

Greenland
1. US invasion or procurement of exclusive mining rights excluding ALBA <<-- mitigated by Trump losing election (and vacating office)
2. Less reserves than anticipated
3. Running out of funds to develop
4. Alternaive battery technology comes forth not using these metals

Controls
1. Out of our hands, remains a risk <<-
2. We'll know by Sept 2021 as long a covid doenst exclude travel <<-
3. Probably unlikely

There's the results from the previous low tech mining operations to go from which gives some idea of yield per tonne of ore. given that previous mining operations ceased when gold was US$ 300 / T then the current environment is considerably more favourable.

Its already been announced that the results of the current site investigation will be released in one go after the lab tests. I'm guessing the lab tests will take about 2 weeks to prepare to report stage. The kit already at the mine can crush and sift 5T a day, so I assume there'd be about a week of sifting and followed by a couple of days' chemical testing, hence my 2 week post site investigation. The critical thing is that the site investigation continues and is not locked down.

With respect to "what if they dont find anything". Its likely by this stage that ALBA's board will have had some idea of preliminary results and have successfully sought funding for further development of Clogau. I read that as wholly positive a development. Would you seek funds to develop a gold mine, if you didnt think there was significant quantities ? In any case, in 2-3 weeks time a great deal of unknowns will have been taken out of the equation. By next september (2021) then credible reports on the reserves at Greenland should be available. We'll then be dealing with wholly known quantities ... which is a totally different kettle of fish.

I'm not sure if they've got access to the Morocco site at present.

Vaughan Gething, Welsh health minister just stated that a second Welsh lockdown is not imminent.

"RE: MMs duplicidous people". The way I read it, MMs did a "tree shake" this morning, i.e. lowered the bid / offer prices after a period of share price increases to trigger stop losses that may have been put in place after Friday's rise. I'd imagine that most institutional investors are somewhat distracted this morning.

0.32 - 0.35 on hl.co.uk at open

if the SP reaches a certain level, then the warrant holders have an obligation to exercise them (or they lapse worthless).

I'm glad that one of the outlets identified is bullion. Perhaps we should look at striking 'ddraig' 1oz bullion coins. As there's only so much jewellery you can make. Personally I like Rhiannonn from Tregaron Welsh jewellery, I'm not invested in them I'll declare

Thursday's results day is it? I'd sold my XSG temporarily to fund an increase in holding of ALBA which I plan to part sell Tuesday or Wednesday in anticipation of positive news on XSG. With the institutional investor building their holding I can see XSG doing well ahead of the 2024 French legislation.

I'd speculate that either Morocco or asphalt ridge under starters orders justifies 15p on their own. Add another 10p for commencement of 10k bopd at asphalt ridge and 20p for a lino. In... So quite possibly 50p by Jan 3022. I'd suspect there'd be a buy out by an oil major before then though. Its imperative to get to breakeven and sources of conventional finance first. With so many of us probably owning through nominee accounts rights issue may not be a viable option, but that says more about how nominee accounts work than the company.

Does anyone. Have a link to Web page that may shed light on common market makers tricks? I can't help but notice huge spreads not only on qfi but other prerevenue high potential shares.

"Just one signature" : quite so, however I was impressed by the recent presentation which showed they realise the need to land that first deal and get some solid production done. You could have been forgiven for fearing that the company would lurch from one cash runway to another with exercise times of warrants being timed with glowing forecasts and upbeat projections.

Yes January 2022, my mistake

the premiun on welsh gold is because of its scarcity. Naturally, the more you extract and bring to the market then the more it would tend towards commodity pricing, but its scarce value jewellry that determines the price at present. Working conservatively you could of course, in your projections and forecasting value it at spot gold and everything else is a bonus.

The way I am looking at it is that Clogau will provide the revenue to exploit Greenland and develop the necessary infrastructure using organic funds and more conventional debt instruments which do not dilute shareholdings.

I'd look at it like this. One lands then suddenly time is not our enemy. Company in breakeven. So then you are looking at the NPV value of the future projects * probability of them happening (0% to 100%). So the shareprice would change on the addition of new credible projects and the probability of their success.

I'm looking at a situation where greenfields goes into 10000 bopd production say in 14 months time
but with no other new projects I reckoned on a NPV of £ 45 M
reflecting a conservative SP of 5p

Bearing in mind that SP is anticipatory, then if a deal is done on greenfield post trials (so mid Nov) then SP 5p by then

If all goes to plan , new projects are attracted etc then 15p by the time greenfield goes into production January 2021

Back of a fag packet calculation based on Tomco's earlier RNS

Capacity 10,000 bopd
Uptime 90%
Annual Production 3,285,000 barrels

Sale price US $ 250 per Tonne <-- current price, conservative estimate
Sale price US $ 34 per barrel
Revenue US $ 341,064 per day
Revenue US $ 112,039,563 annual

Cost of Production
cost of prod ex licence US $ 25.00 per barrel
licence cost MSAR US $ 1.00 per barrel ----> annual revenue to QFI US $ 3,285,000 to breakeven


total cost of production
US $ 26 per barrel
US $ 260,000 per day
US $ 85,410,000 per year

GP US $ 8.11 per barrell
US $ 81,064.12 per day
US $ 26,629,563.44 per year

Payback period 6.9 years <<--- this decreases radically with sale price of the product, I've heard that the industry expectation is usually 2 years. To meet that expectation then the sale price of the product would have to be US $ 54 per barrell or US $ 400 per Tonne. Bear in mind that the fuel from Asphalt Ridge would meet ULSFO specs. Post covid downturn that would be a possible price.

I'm surprised at the drop in SP given what can only be interpreted as good news

True, but mid October on the results as long as they are not wooly ... "inconclusive , recommend further drilling" type reports .. then the valuation will either bomb or rocket.

I'm not convinced of the interpretation of technical analysis with thinnly traded securities and imminent significant news.

The big fundamental question is whether there is economically extractable gold reserves identified and if so, how much.
That is what will determine the SP in 4 weeks time.

There exists the possibilty of there not being any workable reserves. (though i doubt this is the case)

Clogau itself is a quality jeweller. Though small, Rhiannon do very tasteful welsh themed jewellry

I'd rather trade on its Welshness as opposed to any monarchial pretention