Member Info for elir71

Does anyone know how the conversion price of the bergen finance is determined? I'm trying to work out future dilution.

thanks jack

I'm taking a look at the situation re warrants and convertibles to assess the likely dilutive effects and / or the necessity for further finance moving forward from mid Q2 2021 (6 months' time). Does anyone know if the second tranche (ie. the second £1m) is available to QFI from Bergen ? or has it already been taken ?

I cant help but notice a concurrence of short but shart periods of share price being marked down and the emergence of negative yet unsubstantiated posts on this bb and others. It's almost as if derampers and MM were one and the same ... fancy that ?

@Mr008 There are many mines that have had a long and discontinuous history of mineral exploitation in many different geological settings. Many are in Wales. Clogau being one, Dolau Cothi another, Paris, Great Orme, Rhyd y Car many heavy metal mines in North Ceredigion. Its quite normal to stop mining when it's ecnomically disadvantageous to continue.

@Dilema
it wasnt just the US$ 300 / oz Au
it was also that there were new environmental compliance requirements on the testing / treatment of minewater discharged into Afon Mawddach.

Here's quite an interesting clip on the assaying process. I take from it, that the bulk samples are going to be more representative than the core samples (though of course the core samples can "see" further").
https://youtu.be/cuQjsydJIyI

@Phoebus
RNS 1906V 29th November 2019 Completion of drilling
RNS 1831B 28th January 2019 Results of drilling
so indeed it did take two months the last time....

If the same timescales apply with this then if they report on September 2020 investigation then results, on the above timesscale, would be start of december. If they aggregate the result then it looks like being at the start of january 2021

How long did the assay results take last year ?

@Pheobus
Previous turnaround time as a prediction of future turnaround time is not an unreasonable assumption to make
Testing when I was in geotechnical work took about 2 weeks to get back from lab which is where I got that timescale

I can't find an RNS that refers to October ... I only see "expected to run for September".

It's not unreasonable to reach a suspicion that the results are delayed because the initial samples may have had disappointing grades and waiting until more samples are available may improve the results. Changes to plans tend to rattle the market as they may be disguising unwelcome occurences.

From the latest RNS I undertand that they are on the final drillhole and have 8 tonnes of bulk samples to recover.

@Phoebus
The assay results will be from the analysis of the bulk samples as opposed to the coring.
As you correctly quote "expected to run for September"
Giving about 2 weeks for laboratory work, then mid October seems entirely reasonable from the below.

There has been an extension of the site investigation work after the completion of the September site investigation and the cessation of work for a week . I have asked the question many times without answer, whether they will present the result of the September sampling or aggregate them with the ongoing sampling. My understanding is that the results will pertain to September's investigation however the wording is vague because "following the end of the programme", "programme is expected to run for the month of September 2020" could be promogulated as "following the [site investigation] expected to run for the month of September2020" OR "follwing the [site investigation] which was extended into October 2020"

I would prefer it if the company clarified this, as they clarified and confirmed the effect of Wales lockdown on progress.

Nevertheless, it is not of any consequence to the current operations of the company.

I have held the view that the assay results would be out in mid October, as evidenced by my previous posts and following my above thinking.

Much as I would wish abundant gold to be found, there is a real possibility that disappointing grades may be found in this phase of investigation. Dissmissing the opinons of others who present conclusions which are contrary to our hopes is a form of confirmation bias. It weakens our ability to accurately analyse and perceive.

Not really answering the timescale to assay results question. Glad to hear confirmation of operations continuing through lickfown

Re Heart skipped a beat

happens to me every 7am when an RNS comes out !

The risk of selling in the hope of buying cheaper later is that if news arrives while you're out of it, then it could be expensive to buy back in and you'd end up with less stock. It's your call of course!

I'd point out that when describing grammes per tonne of gold it means grammes per tonne of ore (quartz veins in this case). You need to dig out about 10 tonnes to get one tonne of ore.

In Roman times Dolau Cothi in South Wales was a large mine,. There's a geological paper out there that reviews some commercial exploration of similar rocks a few km away, but the ore contained mainly tin. So it can be very hit and miss. That said the probable reserves within the existing mine infrastructure at Clogau St Davids justify a market capitalisation in multiples of the current, there is still plenty of 'upside', from the Dolgellau belt which alba will explore over the coming months and years.

Naturally dyor

How warrants work.
A company issues warrants, which give the right but not the obligation to buy a number of new shares from the company at a predetermined price (the exercise price) for a limited period of time. It rewards the holder for rises in share price above the exericise price. As long as the warrant holder believes that the company has good prospects of achieveing an open market share price exceeding that of the exercise price then it can be an effective way for a company which has little cash to remunerate an investor.

Some warrants are tradeable, just like shares. However these are not.

The 0.55p warrants in issue have an accelerator clause which means that if the SP exceeds 1.1p for 10 days then the company can insist that the warrant holders exercise their warrants ... which means they get a new share for 0.55p irrespective of the market price.
This increases the number of shares in circulation and therefore dilutes the voting rights of existing shareholders. It doesnt necessarily dilute shareholder value though, my recent posts give my opinion on why.

Ive taken the report of accounts 30th November and trawled through all the pertinent RNSs since
Less than £22,000 by exercise value of warrants are left to be exercised at 0.13p ... so in practice, very little if any at all
at the 0.3 and 0.32 levels I estimate there being £82,500 by exercise value

There's about £1M worth at exercise value in the 0.4 0 to .42p range

£1.3M's worth at 0.55p exercise value

Number of warrants issued / Shares in circulation is about 14%

DYOR - it looks to me like dilution at present is not of any lasting concern

"once the assay results are complete" .... but the sampling has been extended. I always understood it to be the sampling done in September before the week's break at the start of October

·; The Company will issue 28,000,000 share warrants to the Investor with an exercise period of 24 months from the date of issue, entitling the Investor to subscribe for one Share per Warrant at an exercise price per share of £0.001625 (the "Warrants"). The Warrants will be issued on customary terms. If exercised in full, the Warrant holders will hold 28,000,000 Shares (aside from any Shares held as a result of conversion of the Convertible Securities), or about 0.75% of the total enlarged issued ordinary share capital of the Company.

"·; The Investor will have the right to convert the Convertible Securities into Alba ordinary shares ("Shares") based on the volume-weighted average price ("VWAP") of Alba shares during a specified period prior to conversion or, in respect of a limited amount of Convertible Securities, at £0.001625."

Bergen

Mon, 24th Feb 2020 07:00

RNS Number : 8252D

Yes msar is essential for profitable operation of asphalt ridge. How the uplift is split between the parties still remains to be seen, but I'd like to see that agreed before the 500 bopd is in operation. Surely quadrise have had enough time to do the tests on the samples by now.