Member Info for ElectricLion

What a bunch of claptrap is posted on here sometimes. No wonder most PIs lose money. SMH.

he decided to stop covering kefi due to someone with a vendetta against him and/or haa, i forget the specifics. he explained it a while back. it is still being covered by someone else at ************* though.

Not too suprised he's gone. As I commentated several times back on the CNR board, he's an investor, not a miner, and he has many other ventures and committments. I don't think I care much either way, except that as broomtree says, it raises serious questions over his committment to retaining his MTL holding for the longer term.

Most likely that large trade and the large number of automated smaller trades today, were all part of the same transaction. A transfer of some sort. The SP hasn't budged after all...

Mid-April would be perfect. 31st March is an awkward target date with regards to tax planning. Would like to Bed and ISA a few before the SP takes off...

You're starting to become as tiresome as the other eejit derampers dvh. Just FYI, in case you didn't know.

Would you two give it a rest? Seriously. You're as boring as each other. Two sides of the same coin, and naturally neither of you can see that.

Too many unknowns to be able to draw a concrete conclusion for me. There are plenty of stale bulls about, some may have decided to throw the towel in, in addition to any placing turnover. Add in traders to the mix, who may have substantial trades, but don't stick around for long, and the picture is murky at best. I'd be inclined to think the SP is mostly a result of the justifiable skepticism surrounding HAA and Kefi's attempts to make real, quantifiable, RNS-able progress, rather than as a result of any conspriracy theory, but who knows.

If a bid is incoming though, at what price? I've been recently disappointed by the price struck in a takeover elsewhere, but in hindsight, I should have seen it coming - the company had basically run out of money and so were forced to take what they could get. That is not the case here, as far as we know anyway. While we're all sick and tired of waiting, the future ought to be bright, if it ever arrives, and a bid would have to account for that. TW, FWIW, and I know he has his detractors, reckons 1-1.5p on SA sale news and TK closure. That's short-term - we all hope those RNSs are "imminent" (!) and does not account for the future cash-generation potential. So a bid would have to be respectable or it would surely go no-where. 2p might get it done. Doubt much less would - if there any justice in the world (highly debatable to be fair!), we ought to be well North of 1p as soon as those damn RNSs come though, which we hope will be any day now. Fingers crossed, and GLA either way.

"america is burning down cities with lasers and calling it climate change"

Total loon. Oh, you're Watcher36... that makes sense...

Speaking as an ex-CNR LTH, I think you need to decide on a concrete course of action Surrey. If you're not happy staying the course, then sell up. I appreciate that liquidity is a concern, but you don't have to sell everything all at once. But if you're gonna go, then make the decision and start reducing. If not, then suck it up and wait it out for better times. Either way, it'll make you feel better to have taken control of the situation. Don't let the disappoinment define you and poison your life.

The sad reality is that most PIs are painfully clueless, and that can apply just as much to rampers as derampers. The Dunning–Kruger effect means that the most clueless have no idea that they are clueless at all! (I mean, obviously *I* don't think I'm clueless, but Dunning–Kruger says that if I was, I'd be too clueless to realise it!)

So all anyone can really do is to be aware that a.) most people are clueless, and b.) you could be one of them!

At least bearing that in mind, and being cogniscent of the array of other psychological biases that others and ourselves can suffer from, makes you slightly less clueless than those who don't even make that effort.

Without wanting to name names, I think it is quite obvious that there are many on this board who are clueless, and by that, I don't mean that they simply don't know what's going to happen next - none of us can actually see the future after all. But rather that they are quite obviously suffering from one of more cognitive biases that are impeding a fuller understanding of the situation.

So what does all that rambling imply? Not much, except that you should think for yourself, and not be led by armchair pundits of any shade.

My personal view of the current situation, until events change that view, is that TK is nailed on, but that predicting timelines is a mugs game, and that we'll get a decent chunk for SA (don't ask me how much exactly, I haven't a clue. Somewhere in-between the rampers numbers and the derampers numbers most likely!). So I'm content to accumulate and wait.

Most likely no-one could say very much to each other due to various competing NDAs! Hence perhaps a little confusion.

Old news now of course, but may also explain why Calibre weren't interested in buying CNR. This deal with Equinox must have taken some time to negotiate...

That is big news...

Lee. The reason to sell or to reduce is to manage risk.

While it is good advice to let your winners run and drop your losers quickly, it is also true that a position that has multi-bagged is now highly likely to make up a larger proportion of your portfolio than you originally intended. In that situation it is sensible to evaluate as you say, but not just a single position, rather you should take a look at your overall portfolio and re-balance if appropriate. Otherwise, you may as well go to Vegas and plonk it all on red (or black, or green if you're feeling really lucky! lol) and cross your fingers. There are people who do that, and some of them even win big, but it's not investing, it's gambling.

Granted, I didn't mean 100% of your portfolio, rather let's say whatever percentage you want to allocate to risky AIM stocks! That said, if you don't think the sector as a whole isn't a good bet over the next couple of years, then you might not want to be in that sector at all...

MTL is a good buy/hold in the same sense that most gold stocks are good buy/holds, given that the price of gold itself is doing well. The question is whether MTL is notably better than the rest of the sector. Or maybe it doesn't even matter unless you are "all-in" (bad idea, on any stock). Maybe you should just spread your portfolio across a dozen gold juniors - accept that some will do better than others - and come back in a couple of years...

*like

In an illiquid stock line CNR or MTL? Yes, albeit only temporarily. It often doesn't take much stock to move the price of these small caps.

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”

― Benjamin Graham

Given the history, I have a lot of sympathy for those who feel as sixnoughts does, but when all's said and done, you have to make a judgement call, and my personal judgement is that it is indeed, different this time. I may be right I may be wrong, but I have put my money where my mouth is, and the trouble with waiting for the change in direction to become obvious, is that you may well be paying twice today's price on the day news drops, or shortly thereafter.

While I may sell chunks on a good spike, the plan is to keep most until full production, at which point I expect the SP to bear no resemblance whatsoever to today's SP, and so I am content to accumulate, and wait.