Member Info for ElectricLion

Unfortunately I have to greenbox you Bonkers. You're not being objective. At best, your emotions are entirely driven by the SP. I'll leave you with this quote, from Warren Buffett (you may have heard of him):

"When hamburgers go down in price, we sing the ‘Hallelujah Chorus’ in the Buffett household. When hamburgers go up in price, we weep. For most people, it’s the same with everything in life they will be buying — – except stocks. When stocks go down and you can get more for your money, people don’t like them anymore."

You would expect Calibre and CNR to react a little differently to news of sanctions. One made money, the other didn't. For that matter, one traded in Canada and the other in the UK. Hard to compare apples to apples. None-the-less, if you're arguing that the sanctions made no difference to either, then you're flat-out wrong. Calibre ended-up diversifying to other jurisdictions as soon as they possibly could, and CNR, well, you know most of the rest! broomtree is right in that you should be very careful who you accuse of dishonesty, particularly if your own research is rather lacklustre.

MTL is more comparable to Calibre, in that they make money, and so are less dependant on political machinations, particularly short-term ones. The sanctions never really got serious, in many ways. Private companies were, in theory, untouched, though in practice, life is messy and unpredictable. Don't bet the farm on any stock, particularly an AIM resource junior, remains good advice, whatever your views on it's future potential.

Do you have an exit target out of interest?

And yet, you still hold, some at least, don't you? HAA and Kefi will do what they will, good or bad. But you're responsible for your own choices. Logically, one would only continue to hold if you saw some imminent upside (you could be right or wrong in the end, but you gotta think it's worth a shot), or were emotionally involved. Which is it?

But... I don't really need to ask though do I? 148 posts in a month tells it's own story. I post less than I used to. You know why? Because I found that the mere fact of posting a lot made me more emotionally involved with the investment. Less likely to walk away, even if I knew in my heart, I should. Seriously and genuinely, knock the posts on the head for a few weeks and see if you still feel the same way at the end of it. If so, then you should simply sell. No-one should hold a stock if they've lost all faith in it. And if they do, then, well, they should at least have the self-awareness to know that they're not a good investor, no matter what the SP may or may not do in the end.

Pedro. First of all, not everything is a conspiracy theory. Second of all, DYOR, but better. See this RNS: https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/CNR/condor-gold-comment-on-us-sanctions-rdj8q44g00h91uh.html which states sanctions were announced October 24, 2022 (and also states that the sanctions are "unlikely to have an impact". hummm....), and then look at the CNR chart. Some detail may be lost on for short timescales, but I can see a peak of 32.25p on Oct 17th, dropping to an eventual low of 15.625 on Dec 21st.

Kefi. But don't put your house on it. It's another irsky AIM stock at the end of the day. But could easily multi-bag if all goes well.

Indeed. I suspect some of the selling pressure may actually be coming from LTH of MTL, who loaded up on CNR before the sale went through, and booked double-digit gains on the takeover price, plus the CVRs. All well and good, except that they may have ended up rather overweight MTL...

Take the word of folks who were actually there aye? Jeez.

Take a break Bonkers. 141 posts in a month on a share you don't rate is a waste of your own time and energy, apart from anything else. Your assets to waste at the end of the day, but surely there must be other things you could do with them.

It seems clear (to me anyway) that the SA sale will take a bit longer. We wouldn't have just had a massive raise if it was just about to drop. As for the amount, 70m (£ or $?) is probably ambitious, but while more is better, we don't need that much. I hear the disappointment over how all the SA events have gone down, but I'd just be happy with no more dilution ever again TBH.

One last point regarding the market. One which I have made before, but i think it bears repeating. If you just do what the market does, you'll get what the market gets. In that case, buy a tracker and forget about it for goodness sake.

If on the other hand, you have aspirations to beat the market, then that necessitates sometimes going against the market. When, and at what scale, is the million-dollar question of course. But the mere fact that the market isn't buying it (yet) means very little.

Besides, what is the market but an aggregate of all it's participants. Some pros, a lots of amateurs like us lot and a few out-and-out gamblers (like us lot? lol!). Point is, the market isn't some all-knowing, all-seeing divine entity, it's just a lot of people put together. And a lot of people put together can be pretty dumb.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kkCwFkOZoOY

They are both in their 70s, and (with the greatest of respect to similar-aged folks!), that means that they represent the past. The question is, what will happen when the next generation inherit. I'm sure i heard ages ago that some of the younger Ortega members were being groomed (if that is the right word), by US representatives. whether that comes to anything is another matter, and the transition may not be without ruffles, but over the long-term, I think/hope, for everyone's sakes, that Nic will come to understand that diplomacy and democracy reaps more rewards than dictatorship. One can dream, after all!

The mood can, does and will change quickly. As an invester, you have to try and distance yourself from your mood being driven by the SP. The mood on the board (amongst some at least) was high just before Christmas. The raise put paid to that obviously, along with yet another quarter rolling by without, seemingly, having much to show for it.

But the only thing now that is actually worse than it was just before the raise, when the mood was high, is the SP itself. In all other regards, the situation now is as good or better than it was then. We have cash now. We may have had the last raise we'll ever need - at the very least, there's some reasonable grounds for considering that possibility. TK is too big to fail, it's just that banks, and Africa in general, move rather slower than we may like. Not much HAA, or indeed anyone else, can do about that.

Once TK is properly, officially, underway, and we have a good slug of money from SA, the mood, along with the SP, should be rather more positive. In other words, now is the time to buy or top-up, if you can. I have a few too many already, so I will refrain, but the downside over the next few months seems to me to be small, whereas the upside is large. DYOR, and good luck whatever you decide.

I think CNR's plan was to start with just La India production, to keep costs low, but then to add in further ozs ASAP. If the capital had been available, as it is now, then there's no need for such a phased approach.

Indeed. A tad disengenuous to claim these show improvements from CNR's own figures. This was the plan all along. Nice to see it actually moving though!

I am not an accountant, but my understanding is that the correct approach is to value them at zero, for now. When (and if) they pay out, you can adjust for this in the tax year in which the funds materialise. If the CVRs were tradeable, then there might be some market which would put a value on them in some way, even if it was only the price at which someone would buy them from you (or you would pay to buy them). But since they are not tradeable, it is impossible to put a meaningful value on them, and so the only reasonable avenue remaining is to value them at zero, until and unless they pay out. Anyone concerned about this should of course contact a proper accountant, but that is how I plan to handle it. I'll let you know if HMRC complain!

Another explanation may be: he just doesn't have the funds. You still need to pay for the options.

I dunno about options, but I'm sure I've seen that warrents just convert over to MTL warrants. So there may be no rush to exercise them.

"And now we are going to be diluted by a shed load and pay a chunk of profit for the mining rights to a patch of dirt in Nicaragua."

I can see how you may think this, from your point of view, but as I was told, rather brusquely, on my first visit, to this board, some research may be in order! It's a patch of dirt covering a treasure trove! Certainly your (I should now say "our", I suppose!) BoD think it's worth a few bob! Rest assured, it is. It just needs someone with the funds to make it pay, which you (we) have.

The short-term SP, is as usual, anyone's guess. There will inevitably be some turbulance over the next few weeks. As you may have gathered, some CNR shareholders are not too happy. Others may simply take the opportunity to re-balance their portfolios. None of that should concern LTHs here. It'll work itself out quite quickly, and going forward, MTL, and it's shareholders have a lot to look forward to in the future.

"the shareprice adjusts to a multiple of the dividend payment"

I disagree that that's how it works. Just as MTL is not currently valued at a strong P/E ratio for it's cash generation, due to limited remaining life-of-mine (not accounting for La India yet), the mere fact of a dividend doesn't magically lead to an SP increase. If the market thinks it's sustainable over the long term, then perhaps. But some of the biggest falls I've seen on very mature stocks are when the dividend grows too large, relative to the company valuation. Loads of invester pile in for the yield, the divi is cut, and income investors head for the exit, at the same time as the SP is already under pressure, as the SP drooping is probably what caused the yield to rise in the first place. It's all a balancing act, and for me, divis do not get me excited in any way. Not for this kind of company in this situation anyway. Use the money to make more money, and the SP will take care of itself.

I may be somewhat lonely in this view, but I tend to take a dim view of dividends. They seem like a terribly unimaginative use of company funds. The company would basically be saying "we can't think of anything better to do with this money, so we may as well give it away". I know some investors love that stuff, and maybe it's fine for very well established companies, in very secure positions with more money than they know what to do with, but for most companies at this end of the market, I'd far rather that the company thought of a better use for the funds, to leverage them for future growth, than just give it away. It doesn't grow on trees, after all.

The market doesn't believe it. Not hard to understand. One only has to glance at this board to see that. But if you thought that the market was right all the time, you'd never become an investor in the first place (read up about the efficient market hypothosis). On the occasions where the market may be wrong, investors who bet against the market can make a lot of money.

So, do you believe that the market is wrong in this case or not? Not an entirely trivial question to answer, I grant you. The history is not encouraging. But that's the point. If it was obvious, the market would be pricing it in already. You have to make your own judgement. I don't think many people are genuinely able to detach themselves from the emotional aspect of it all to do that properly. Indeed, it's an open question whether I've called it correctly, but I've at least tried to look at the situation objectively, and invest accordingly.

FWIW, though you shouldn't take my word for it, nor that of anyone else on this board, this appears to be the lowest-risk, and certainly lowest price, in the company's history. I think that TK finance will complete. Timelines will continue to be fluid (at best), but progress will continue to be made, and we will inch closer. One day, though it is impossible to truely say when, I expect the SP to be significantly higher than today, and so I will continue to add as and when I can afford to.