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You know, if a regular here genuinely feels like they've found a fantastic opportunity elsewhere and wants to share it, then I'm fine with that. What I'm not fine with is drive-by pump-and-dumpers like this. Reported and filtered.

As I mentioned, I don't really believe in an NPV-based valuation. You also have to decide whether you're trying to value the company now, or in a couple of years once production is fully underway.

Even once you have an SP target in mind, you still need to decide how to play your trading strategy. Having been burned fairly recently on another stock (not badly hurt, just reality fell short of my expectations), I'll refrain from a target for now, but I am overweight Kefi right now, so will de-risk once we're North of a penny and then keep the rest until production, probably regardless of what the SP does in the meantime, unless it gets obviously overheated of course.

One last point - the gold price is key. If the GP is at or above $3k, that does wonders for every metric and allows for predictions that would be complete fantasy if the GP was under $2k, which itself seemed like an amitious target not so long ago.

NPV is not a MCap prediction. A P/E valuation based on FCF once in production will get you closer IMO.

Stebo. Before I filtered him, Bonkers would complain that I didn't call out rampers as much as derampers. With that in mind, I would simply observe that a 25p SP equates to a £2bn MCap. That's... a lot! Let's get over a penny first eh, and then see where we are.

Not sure what you're driving at broomtree, or what you mean by "equipped to mine". In an alternative universe where CNR had got the funding (which very nearly happened as I understand it, just fell at the final hurdle due to sanctions), they would have hired contracters to build the mine. Lycopodium probably.

It was also a lot of money to spend, if they never had any intention of using it. Much like a house extension - there's no guarantee you'd get back what you spent on it when you come to sell the house!

It was bought when the intention was to mine La India, no matter what the CNR BoD may or may not have said since. It was also half paid for with CNR shares at 50p. Not a bad deal, even if it didn't pan out that way. As mentioned earlier, it's throughput can be increased by adding a bigger motor, though I forget the details. I think CNR's designs for the La India mine were intended to be expandable, so if a significantly larger operation was desired, you could just add another to run in parallel.

I expect and hope that JM wil have no interest in attempting to manage MTL in any way. He is an investor, and has many other interests, includng trying to live forever. I think he stepped in when MC was struggling to keep CNR afloat, and if he hadn't we may have ended up with nothing. We should have had more of course, but that's water under the bridge now. He's probably far too busy now to pay too much heed to what MTL does or does not do.

While I have seen nothing to prove this, I would also expect that in a deal of this nature, he would be prevented from selling his shares for a couple of years. If JM poses a risk, it is that he chooses to suddenly dump his holding onto the market, but I expect that some condition would have been put in place to prevent that occurring any time soon. It would be nice to have that confirmed though, if anyone's seen anything?

Ilka, maybe check out Horizonte Minerals (HZM) for a cautionary tale of how quickly and how badly things can go. The tl:dr version is that they badly messed up their estimates for how much it would cost to build their mine. The overrun was huge, on an already pretty expensive build. They couldn't find the capital to bridge the gap, so they went bust, in a nutshell. It took 1 day to go from 125p per share to 16p. Halved again a month later. A couple more months and it was suspended, never to return.

No, of course I'm not saying that will happen here, but that's what risk really looks like. There were folks who'd sold their houses to put it all into a "sure thing" who ended up with nothing. You never want to put yourself in that position. No matter how great the prospects are, it's not worth the destruction it can bring to your life if it all goes wrong.

"Fooled by Randomness" is a good book that anyone interested in taking the subject of investing and risk-management seriously should read. I come from a mathematical background and am well aware that most people's perceptions of probability are rather wide of the mark. That's why the Martingale strategy in roulette doesn't work long term, and that's why you should never go 'all-in' on anything, because a black swan can wipe you out, and then you can never come back.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fooled_by_Randomness

Lee: "why you would not want to hold"

Life is rarely as simple as that. Purely as a hypothetical, imagine that someone was overweight in CNR and then ended up overweight in MTL as well..

Responsible risk management is a must for long-term survival in this game.

Bear: "totally toxic" ... followed by a variety of swear words and insults.

Look in the mirror.

Not always as simple as that Simms. Liquidity is often a factor. If you want a lot of capital out, you have to take what the MMs will give you. In that regard, the quoted buy/sell range can be a mirage. Not actually attainable if you have a lot of stock to shift either way.

Myself I am cautiously optimistic, but I would agree with some comments from the CNR side of things that there seems to be a lack of interest in actual unbiased commentary, replaced by somewhat messianic adoration of the CEO (I doubt, for example that he's actually the 'greatest mining CEO in the world', as some have stated!).

Given that the immediate aftermath of the takeover has gone much as I thought (and said) it would, I think it goes to show that occasionally an outside perspective may have merit even if it not appreciated by the masses.

Nope, I'm guessing he means what he says. CNR warrants got converted to MTL warrants as I understand it, but suffice to say vermilion, I don't think many of us will have been in a position to be granted warrants in the first place, so you most likely know more about them than the rest of us!

Until he doesn't...

Has Surrey actually said that it's him selling? It wasn't so long ago folks didn't believe him regarding the size of his holding, but now it's gotta be him selling? A lot of jumping to conclusions going on as far as I can see. Whether it's him or not, he won't be the only one. This was pretty much inevitable, I said as much back in December. I also said it shouldn't perturb LTHs too much. It'll wash through before too long.

As you, and all else who share the same sentiments, should realise by now, that's just not going to happen. It may make you feel better to say such things, but back in the real world, he'll move on when he's good and ready. I don't see anything like enough shareholders sufficiently capable and motivated to force him out.

A sufficiently aggrieved major investor, could make him uncomfortable, but they will also know that getting him out would only be the first step on a journey that probably wouldn't be kind to their investment over the shorter term (the market hates uncertainty) or possibly the longer-term either (loss of personal relationships that HAA has cultivated over the years).

If you don't think he's up to the job, then the logical course of action is to sell up and go elsewhere. There's no sign (yet) that he's going to go any time soon.

"Do they know something we don't?"

Highly unlikely. And would probably be qualified as insider trading if they did. Likely still just burning through the placing overhang. Just gotta be patiant and wait for brighter days.

Agreed. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. That's usually intended as a disclaimer, but it works both ways. Wish I'd known it would take this long, and fall this low, so I could have skipped the history, but we are where we are, and my money is on the future being brighter than the past. As you say, time will tell. Fingers crossed.