RE: Is it safe to go back in the water?6 Feb 2025 08:19
GetOnYerBike - I don't think it's quite as simple as saying the share price would rise 40% less on "big news". Because any big news we get now, is going to be different to the big news we had before. Therefore it will affect the SP differently.
The share price has been diluted since the £5 days back in 2010. So obviously you can't make a like for like comparison to then. The global sentiment towards oil is also a lot worse now, so that works against RKH too.
However, the big news that spiked the share price back then was discovering oil. As we all know to well, the timeline between discovering oil and reaching profitability can be VERY long.
Whereas if all goes well and we get the good news we are all hoping (FID, followed by first oil a few years later) - then the timeline towards profitability is a lot shorter, and more predictable.
No one knows for certain how much the SP will rise if and when that happens. But I think we can see with almost certainty that if the project gets sanctioned and the oil is drilled then the share price is going to rise massively from where we are today. If it doesn't, RKH will be at best a zombie company, at worst, bust.
It's quite a binary decision - and IMHO the odds are stacked in favour of the project going ahead.