Member Info for EG777

*calculations

Happy - I’ll wait for someone better versed in accounting to correct the errors in your calculators.

But if you genuinely believe the share is fair value, why would you not sell your shares (if you actually have any) and invest in something you thought would get a good ROI.

150p on FID is my prediction. I wouldn’t hazard a guess at a price if we reach first oil as so much can happen between then and now either positive or negative.

HappyInvestor - I think the itchy fingers of yours are actually wondering if now is the time to buy because so far you attempts to drive the share price down by putting a negative spin on everything have failed.

Strange one for 2 trades of that size to go through without any significant discount or premium on the SP. Unless the times are reported wrong on LSE as I'm not sure it's always accurate.

Yeah, no one is denying it’s a great deal for them Happy Investor. The only risk they are taking is the opportunity cost of having their money tied up in escrow.

But that doesn’t change the fact that FID will be a game changer for the share and the dilution and placing will be outweighed by the surge in price IMHO.

Sam said at the AGM that the banks and FIG wanted to be sure that RKH had all the funds in place for any contingencies and things like decommissioning of the wells etc. before lending.

My guess is that Navitas borrowing is conditional on RKH being in a position to cover these costs. FID is obviously reliant on both RKH and Navitas being able to find the cash.

Sam also mentioned that the feedback from the main lending bank had been very positive. So the early fund raise is quite encouraging I’d say. Hopefully talks are quite far down the line as I don’t think they’d be raising $100m+ on a whim.

Thanks for posting Rogue_rader your videos are generally well made, the only comments I'd make on the latest one are:

- RKH or Navitas have not changed their stance on FID being targeted for H2 2025. The 31 March is just a condition for the fund raise to give them a bit of leighway.

- The comment on the upside of Rockhopper "only" being a possible 2x from here is being based on the value of Sea Lion alone. Sea Lion FID is the key to unlocking Falkland Islands as an oil producing region. If that happens Rockhoppers other prospects suddenly become a lot more valuable and will be factored into the SP IMHO.

I don’t think Happy Investor is Garbled because he can use a keyboard and string a coherent sentence together.

Just a separate deramper with an agenda IMHO.

Note these people only seem to come out when the share is performing well.

I don’t think Happy Investor is Garbled because he can use a keyboard and string a coherent sentence together.

Just a separate deramper with an agenda IMHO.

Note these people only seem to come out when the share is performing well.

Agreed Mirasol. I think I'd rather read Godders and Garbled posts than this stuff about child trafficking and immigration. A few posters who normally post some decent stuff are getting dragged into an off-topic discussion they have totally different views on. So it's never going to amount to anything other than a mud-slinging match that clogs up the board. Just agree to disagree and call it end of thread.

Clearly there are a few people here with strong views for/against immigration in the UK. There’s plenty of online platforms for discussing that . But I think most members of this one would prefer the topic of discussion to be Rockhopper…

Mirasol - I'm not sure if you attended the AGM. But if you had you would have heard Sam effectively explain that the insurance company had a certain time frame to decide whether or not the claim was valid or not.

That deadline coincided with the RNS released on 7th July.

It's the lead insurer themselves that confirmed that a loss had been triggered, and this is why RKH announced they are confident they will receive the full payment.

I do not know the ins and outs of the agreement (neither does any one else on the board) so it's speculation as to whether any of the other insurers in the syndicate have the option to appeal or try and over-rule the decision.

But we already know that there was a deadline by which the insurers had to respond to RKH's claim, which has passed, and received a positive response. There will undoubtedly be a deadline by which the funds will need to be paid as well.

It was obvious from the start that the insurers would wait until the 11th hour to respond to the claim, and they will do the same on the payout.

I'll hold my hands up if I'm wrong but from everything I've heard in the AGM and RNS I'm confident RKH will receive the full pay out from the insurers.

Happy.

I'm not sure it's fair "someone in our legal team didn't do their homework properly". I don't know the ins and outs of the other case, but another case held in the same court (ICSID Case No. ARB/16/39) dismissed a proposal to disqualify Poncet for the very same reason as the RKH Case. So the inconsistency is a farce really.

The insurance underwriters were fully aware Charles Poncet was on the panel so they are just as guilty of not doing homework as any other members of the legal teams. Realistically the blame lays with the farcical decision from the ICSID and it's safe to say I don't think either the underwriters, or the legal team expected the decision.

Sam clearly said at the AGM that the insurers had X amount of days (think it was 20) to decide whether the claim was valid or not. As far as I'm concerned the RNS on 7th July is confirmation that they have decided it is, and it's just a case of waiting for them to pay out. Which they will obviously take as long as possible to do, but I'm sure there will be a maximum deadline for payout as there was with the initial decision. Although I can't recall if Sam mentioned anything about how long this was at the AGM.

Also the full statement in the RNS says: "The lead insurer has confirmed that the loss has been triggered and, as a result, Rockhopper is therefore confident it will receive the full €31 million amount to which it is entitled under the policy. The Company will make a further announcement once the funds are received."

Considering how confident RKH were in their announcements regarding the annulment ICSID case in general, only for us all to have the shock announcement that the case was annulled. I think it would be a bit wreckless of Sam to make such a confident and positive announcement regarding the insurance unless it was nailed on.

My opinion is that they have had confirmation payment will be made, and the insurers are just waiting until the last possible day of the deadline to pay as anyone naturally would in their shoes.

As per RNS "lead insurer has confirmed that the loss has been triggered".

If HappyInvestor100 would have attended the AGM he would be aware that due diligence was carried out by the insurers, and absolutely everything was disclosed (Sam's words).

As for why they are taking a while to pay out. It's a no-brainer, even one days worth of interest on 31m is a significant sum of money. So they would naturally want to hold onto that cash for as long as they possible can so it doesn't cause any concern for me.

Stevo12 - I hear you, and don't blame you for wanting to take some profits after being in so long.

I think a lot of people will be in your shoes, but there will also be a crazy amount of hype and media etc. and a lot of new investors will come on board, not to mention institutional investors who will see the share as significantly de-risked when FID is achieved.

You may well be right that £2 may be an irrational valuation at that point in time, but the market is not always rational. £5 was an irrational valuation 15 years ago and it still occured based on the hype of the discovery itself, and I think similar hype will occur if the project is sanctioned.

Very roughly that wouldn't be a million miles away from the valuation we were at then (£5 SP) market cap wise when adjusted for dilution.

I can see the argument that the world is a different place now in terms of O&G attitude, oil price, and that we only have 35% equity since we were farming out. Those are obviously valid points so it's difficult to make the comparison from now to then.

But at that point in time the valuation was based on the discovery alone, and as we all know too well there are a lot of hurdles, risks, and time to overcome from point of discovery to actually getting the project over the line.

My guess is as good as any ones, but I think that if/when that FID RNS drops this share will explode.

Lol £20 Market Cap on FID. That would be nice. But is dreamland.

Personally I can see a spike up to £2 being realistic on FID though.

I think even some of the more enthusiastic posters have been conservative with their estimates on just how much of a game changer FID will be for this share.

Breaking news, institutional investors willing to put up £100m+ get a better deal than PI’s. Someone clutch my pearls while I faint.

Who’d have thought that bankers may have been treated more favourably than us mere mortals in the holier than thou world of AIM market.

Who cares - look at the share price, that’s the only thing I care about…

£210k @ 78.2

I wonder if there's some developments on FIG end as did they not have a meeting recently?

Garbled - yes you are technically correct.

If you can find a buyer for your unlisted shares, agree a price with them, both hire corporate lawyers to facilitate the transaction which would probably cost more in legal fees than your holding is worth. Then you can sell the shares, best of luck doing that.