Member Info for Edwina

FYI I give little credence to IC views but here it is.

IC View
This seems a strange turn of events for a company that has worked hard to repair its governance reputation since the previous two board coups. While its operations are doing well and gold is not far off its all-time high, we’ve had enough of the shenanigans. Sell.

Anyone who has any knowledge of how markets work will understand all these dire headlines, 14% collection rates etc, are all carefully manipulated statistics. 1st day collection rates were circa 40-60% pre covid. So I hope you understand its all scare stories. "Second Waves" etc, (Japan had a whopping 100 new cases, S Korea had 50.) These are not second waves. These are isolated outbrakes, but the media is trying to sell stories, whilst making money for the mogul owners. Smart (big) money is quietly made doing the opposite . America is still first wave FYI. It is 90% fake news. But....Keep lapping it up.

Source: telegraph.
"Commercial landlords were paid just 18.2pc of what they were owed on Wednesday’ June quarterly rent collection.
The collection rate was lower than the 24.3pc collected on the March quarterly rent day". (hardly changed since March quarter.. Sshhhh)

Final results:
"taking account of the fact that we still collected 52% of rent demanded when less than 40% of our retail occupiers were open and trading, with non-essential retailers able to trade from 15 June 2020 meaning 60% of our retail occupiers are now open and pubs expected to re-open shortly".

I do love it when markets focus so much tabloid headlines, they forget any rational thinking. What opportunities it creates!

"Whilst the property valuations reflect the external valuers' assessment of the impact of Covid-19 at the valuation date, we consider +/-10% for EstimatedRetailValue, +/-10% for EBITDA +/-100bps for Net Effective Yield and +/-100bps for multiplier to capture the increased uncertainty in these key valuation assumptions, and deem it to be a reasonable worst case scenario given the like for like fall in valuations of 12.3% already recognised in the year."

Bare in mind a further 20% drop in valuations still leaves NAV above £1. Another 1% of the company traded today, volume is fast clearing the seller on Peel Hunt's book.

Screw buying a buy to let with associated 2nd home stamp duty, dealing with tenants etc, been adding today to let someone else do the work for me. Gla

Yes.... no dividends for 18months even though 75% of pubs are due to open in a couple of weeks, and another 20% are just awaiting gov guidance (I.e 1m rule confirmation).

And group blended FY21 Net property income is expected to drop circa 30%. With 60% of all retail now open and more opening daily. The BOD made is quite clear they will relestablish the dividend as priority in the presentation today.

Q4 2021 it is. Lol.

After trading for 15 years on aim its relatively straight forward what's happened. Minor perceived 'delay' last week after the presentation. People love ramping a good old presentation and if nothing new comes of it, rainbow chasers go elsewhere. This created some negative momentum into the weekend. Market makers had a relatively even book, however, this afternoon there was no major bounce owing mainly to one persistent 10k seller (at 114p it looked prime to move up but one amateur timed seller kept unloading) , so market makers continued to try and make negative momentum into close. Very few quotes were available around 105p so tomorrow I'm guessing they drop it a few % even tho the ftse is up 90points, they won't let anyone buy on the drop, but will happily pick up any ret*rded sellers who choose to sell only now after the share price has halved in a couple weeks and are now fully funded for 2 years. Once this stabilises around £1.1 you can expect downward momentum to fade away and value investors to start buying after the madness has faded away.

My advise, sit on your hands. Tomorrow morning is certainly not the time to sell. In fact im sure it will be a very good time to buy (if you can get a quote!)

Why do you say 'when'. If current assets are yielding around 8% on current asset values. Why bother change to housing. It is there as a fail safe, merely to support valuations. 'Prime' assets yield typically around 3-5% so have further to fall in the perceived value of land. Higher yielding assets don't have that speculative value added, so are less prone to shocks. Asset values can only drop so much before bargain hunters (like NRR / pimco) come in and snap up solid assets at very attractive yields.

Meanwhile NRR has bounced 25% of lows and huge volume has been traded affectively underpinning the investment proposition.

Do you understand how bonds work? If you can't roll the bonds over, the current bonds become under pressure. They are not under pressure. You also clearly have no knowledge of NRR, as BLND has assets in prime areas with high rent. So have been hit harder by asset valuations. NRR has cheap and cheerful assets with low rent and asset valuations underpinned by alternate use. Such as housing developments. Try do some research.

Jstar. Go look at the bond prices for NRR. If what you are saying is even remotely true, the ability to rollover bonds would be hampered. Yet NRR bonds are trading at par. Yielding a little over 3%. Laughable

Those trades are reported late. Would have been executed through the day. Look at the price, they are buys. 8.48p.

"I am delighted to report that the placing has received overwhelming support from both institutional and retail investors leading to a bookbuild that was multiple times oversubscribed."

Guess they'll have to buy on the open market then.

Thanks for posting, we'll thought through professional and reassuring article.

"NewRiver's high income yield (FY19 non-pub) of around 7% helps explain why its past asset values have declined markedly less than larger, higher-valued and higher-rent shopping centre and retail park peers."

Debt trading close to par (considering the debt market is worth close to 4 times the equity by value), clearly the market sees this as positive. One thing left to clear, and that's the stock overhang.

Interesting that the debt is graded one below A rating, ie. Triple B (the best B) . Been watching the order book and there is one 2k AT seller every 5mins or so. And also a 1 Share AT seller. Its a common tactic in manipulating shares to hit the bid with little share sales, often the sell algorithms join you and sell some too (to try and force the share down). The same thing was happening with RPT a few days ago, and with RDI aswel. Both bounced pretty hard after the manipulators had there fun. Imagine wanting to buy assets for as good a price as possible. You manipulate a share down, then get your broker to negotiate some midpriced purchases from the distressed seller. Almost too easy. I'm a buyer at these levels, and once the dust settles and the reality kicks in that asset values have not dropped 40%, and with people returning to there local shops, please educate me on another fundamentally cheap stock as this, I am all ears. Fair enough there are headwinds, but they are priced in with the 75% drop in the share price! GLA

Around 7% of the company traded in one day! Volume like that doesn't just evaporate. The same thing happened to ITM. Huge volume up days with no obvious news. Stake building. And someone is in a hurry.

From memory, upon announcing the Nigerian deal (and associated equity placing somewhere above 30p?), and considering gas prices are largely long term fixed prices. With the share at 8p, and the cash now starting to flow. Is anyone on here so kind to post any numbers such as EPS, debt to earnings, field life, decommissioning cost?, etc. Presumably 'back then' at 30p these were good value, surely it makes them an absolute screaming buy at these levels. The market often needs a catalyst to boost sentiment. Holders need that confidence to believe there cash is well invested. Only then will people average down, and sells subsequently start to dry up.

The market is particularly clever at lowering a share down to absolute lows, and finally start to move when noone is looking, why? Greed. Boredom. Complacency. With forced sellers it's not hard to manipulate a share down. If you wish to acquire stock, you want the best price possible. Once the market realises the overhang is clear, you will have very little time to buy, and all those traders will pounce only once its gone up 80%. The traders will bank there 12%, but is it at that point holding will give the best rewards. Patience is key. Only once the share price is free to move will fair value begin to emerge. The market is like a herd of sheep roaming around, it has confidence in numbers, noone wants to be that sheep at the front if the others won't follow, most are happy to tag along at the back where it's safest, but if your logical and transparent in your judgement you can lead the way!

Having witnessed literally hundreds of pumps and dumps. The time to buy is rarely around 4pm after a monstrous dop from 15 to 7p. Honest advice. Just hold off, you'l most likely get a better price tomorrow as the steam comes off this slightly.

FAO noobandnoobouser: postimg.cc/YLHt3sr5

you come on here at 123p after a 20% drop saying its going to go down more. I come on here at 123p saying its cheap, and get 10% return in 10 hours. Ballbags like yourselves should be ashamed at yourself for trying to instill fear. No doubt if it opened down youd of been here saying its going to 80p, but since its back in its normal range you will slink off, only posting when it starts to go down again. Making money from nubs similar to you has always been all to easy. Yesterday was an anomaly, shooting down 20% in seconds, you take advantage by instilling fear, the money was made doing the opposite.

15Noobs -
'ITM was what I sold out of to get into Sirius about a decade ago'. How did that go? I also think you read the newspapers too much, it's a recipe for disaster to believe that sh*te. Yes recession... followed by the biggest rebound in history. No doubt youl be rebuying you £50 worth of shares once the media says its OK to buy again?

NoobandNoobiser - 'Hope to get back in in the 120s or low 130s'. You wrote on the 12th Feb. The market is about making money which thanks to the 80% record of private investors loosing money is actually pretty easy to do if you follow clowns like these around and do the opposite off.

There was a 1k Iceberg selling into the close. From 145 to 127 in minutes. Meanwhile it was practically impossible to buy anything other than via 'Direct Market Access'. Seemed like pretty amateur selling to me, but then again the whole market has been full of ******ed algorithms of late, let's hope all the margin is being taken out for the next legs up.

CRST seems very good value. Anyone have views on them?

Oil up 15%. Opec +1 will sort this out. Prices around 35-45 during the outbreak will ease the pain for many producers and more importantly oil dependant countries.