Member Info for Edwina

My apologies, a 50p move is circa 14% valuation movement. Still talking only a 4-5% move in the markets perceived valuation.

"Rishi Sunak will outline the next stage of the Job Support Scheme to help firms that "may have to close in the coming weeks or months", the Treasury says."

Do you not think Pub closures are priced in now? Bare in mind a 50p jump in share price equates to around a 10% change in valuations. So the move from 45p to 55p is around a 3% change in the perceived valuation of the property portfolio, hardly a big jump by my metrics.

It must be getting warmer. LOL

Whats the yield looking like here now ladies and gentlemen? Thanks have a good weekend.

· Cash and Cash equivalents at 30 June 2019: $1.9m (2018: $3.4m)

· Cash on hand: 21 February 2020: $6.6m

Does anyone have estimates as to how long this will last? Forgot about these, but looking again, ty

Alwayswrong, you have talked about the trading aspect of this share. Since i bought in on the last drop, circa 52p ish, i mentioned the share suppression being the main factor in where this is just now. Clearly, if one or two holders werent so desperate to sell this would be higher, as they would allow it to bounce around, up and down, rather than just down.

One huge factor to note is the trades going through on the mid price. Anyone watching level 2 will any larger trades executed above the current Offer price, often then soon after go through again at the midprice. This is clearly a market maker selling say 50k shares at 45p, then, since they know there is an institutional seller, they simply instantly rebuy the shares at say 44.25p (if the spread is 44-44.5. This is affectively a get out of jail free card. But also cause for shorters to manipulate the spread down, knowing that the distressed seller will follow them down, and always allow purchases at the midprice, hence no upward momentum on large buys. I have watched this share for 4 months now, and this "mid price" action is still ongoing.

When it stops, i.e. large buys are not instantly rebought at mid, that is when we can start to see a rerate. GL

Once things normalise, and LTV's stabilise, would there be much stopping them selling an asset or two and doing a share buyback? The income from the shares could even be used to pay down debt? SREI recently started a buyback. Maybe market will take the management more seriously this way, more active approach. Certainly no asset purchases, as, as soon as they hit there books they'd be worth 40% less than they bought them.

One or two holders seem desperate to sell UK property at an equivalent 40% discount to the market rate. Quite extraordinary. One loss is another mans gain. Buy to the sound of the sirens, sell to the sound of the trumpets. Opportunity taken.

The whole idea from the start was to supress the virus and get herd immunity. You can't eradicate it. You have a big first wave, then smaller successive waves. A full national lockdown is out of the question unless deaths start getting towards 500+ a day. I'm guessing they'd accept a steady 100+ a day. Check Brazil, no lockdown at all and deaths now trending down. People will just have to live with this for another 8 months or so, whatever the fanatical media idolises. No point completely suppressing it as it only prolongs the inevitable. I'm guessing the majority of people in the UK wouldn't take (or even be offered) the Vaccine anyway. They will take step by step. And give each step a month to work through the numbers. The government need to keep social places open for sanity reasons, maybe 10pm curfew but I doubt full closures, there will be uproar. Excess deaths is what you want to look at, another lockdown would mean twice the amount of people dieing from operable ailments than covid.

£66m worth of development land on the balance sheet.

These assets must be top priority to sell due to receiving little to no income from them. Or maybe one trophy asset to repay the Reserve Credit Facility.

To think you can buy this at £150m seems a bit cheap to me.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54158830

Pub Rent:
- Rent outstanding, Some may be waived as part of conditional support grant given to pub partners
• Remainder subject to insurance claim for loss of rent

Also talk of extending the evictions memorandum, lets hope its for smaller firms, and not the big retailers playing the system.

That link will work. If you just copy the whole link into a new browser. It just highlights how fanatical the media are in selling a story by ever increasing dramatic language. A second wave of cases will emerge but no second wave of deaths. Author calls it a 'casedemic'.

youtu.be/8UvFhIFzaac

Maybe try this link if first doesn't work.

https://youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=8UvFhIFzaac

youtu.be/8UvFhIFzaac

30minute very reassuring video about the pandemic and general media hysteria. 100% worth watching.

i was speaking to the monsieur from Barnet. Maybe you have him filtered (probably wise).

I always found I learned the most from mistakes. So dust yourself off, and go again. I wouldn't sink more in. Just accept the situation is not what you hoped it was. Sorry to hear this for shareholders.

Have you even listened to the results presentation?

Valuations across the board would need to drop 22% to trigger bond covenant (assuming zero asset sales, and loss making operations, which clearly isn't the case). Considering pubs and retails parks valuations look pretty solid, your talking about the shopping centres loosing another 35% of there value (on top of the 17% drop on 31st March where covid was the main driver hence priced in.) The bod reasonable worst case scenario is another 10% valuation drop this year (worst case). Factor in that they stated they are on target for £100m of disposals this year and potentially 'a lot more' if certain deals go through.

Plenty liquidity within the business, it's now upto the management to manage costs and get the dividend flowing again. Any buyers around these levels will be rewarded once the distressed seller halts dumping 200k a day. Bare in mind with volumes like they have been it only takes a little over a year to completely refresh the share register. We often have double the typical volume for a stock of this size, the suppression can't last forever.

People will attempt to buy once dividend is announced, where it will gap up with no liquidity to buy, good luck with that one. Give it a few months, management have stated it is there no1 priority after the health of there staff to reinstate the dividend.

May i suggest to shareholders who have been topping up, to suggest to BOD to do the same. There lack of buying may just be a very astute investing decision due to the distressed seller (waiting for trend reversal), however, the management need to share the pain, and have more skin in the game than they currently do. Contact them to let them know.

They drop it 20% in a day, dont let anyone buy, whilst waiting for newbies to sell. Crooks

On the trade ladies and gentlemen! Just sold up, nice bagger for me. On to the next one! GLA

Any idea how the new equity will convert into old. What conversion it will be. Thanks