Member Info for Edwina

no sign of large 30k (sometimes 60k) seller that has been suppressing this all last week. No sign of mid-price buys (after a large buy over the spread). Mid-price buys had been slowly decreasing from 400k last tuesday to only 150k on friday. This rebound looks different. Bottom reached imo, buyers will now start to buy any dips.

RNS

For whats its worth, in my 15 years of full time trading & level 2 watching, my interpretation is this:

- shorts are taking advantage (not just Rye Bay, but Capeview added on last friday's mayhem), others may be acting in concert too just below notification thresholds.

Level 2 being played:

- Multiple times over the past few days, large 30k sell orders appeared (just above offer price to dissuade AT buyers, if they got a fill (due to massive buying pressure), they loaded up again within 2 minutes at slightly higher prices. The bots notice, so jump ahead of the large sells orders, pushing it back down. The buys on level 2 notice the block so remove buy orders to entice them down (at the end of the day buyers want to buy cheaper, so entice the sellers back down). The 30k seller got filled a good 20 times over a few days, at ever decreasing prices. The time it took the 30k order to replace the order back on the book (and the constant lowering just above the offer to clearly maximize its visual effect says to me it was amateur and not professionally placed.

- Bots will happily take a share price down as low as liquidity forbids, so will deliberately exaggerate any falls. Normal volume of 1m per day was replaced with 8m, with well timed DMA sells (knowing an institutional seller is following them down, hence the buys at mid price) you can manipulate it down.

- The buys at mid price happened to NRR around 50p. Its not a very good tactic to use, but some institutions may decide to sell at midprice. Market makers know this, so lets say spread is 110 - 111, a big 25k buys comes in at say 111.8p, normally this would tick it up, however, the market maker then just rebuys the 25k shares at 110.5p and pockets the difference. The market sees this and continues to tick down the spread to see how low the institution wants to continue accepting mid price sells.

Rye Bay are very active in the shares they trade (look at previous shorting history notifications), they change stock positions daily, so in my view are simply manipulating a share whilst all these antics are going on. Also note the large 30k (sometimes 60k) block seller suddenly started to run away from the offer before they were getting filled late on Friday, when will the manipulation end?

Long Term Chart highlighting every SFO announcement.

https://postimg.cc/GHPDwsrY

Boyobach, your charts are all 15 minute based, i think that tells its own story. Yet you chose to come on here telling holders after a 50% drop to not top up is why i read these boards, to guage sentiment and buy value, and if there is capitulation, bonus! This share is a coiled spring, the shorters have shot there load, the manipulated order book will soon turn, and with 25% of the company traded hands in 6 days, if the buyers want to keep buying we should see a solid recovery.

Captain hindsight

The largest short Rye Bay have ever had is circa £20m, which then dropped quite hastily. I cant see them adding much more. Its positive they have been adding imo. Last week they begun closing there short at £1.65, not sure why they decide to increase the short by 4 million shares in 6 days as low as 104p? The amateur timed selling, and also manipulation makes sense now, aswel as large spoof 50k orders suddenly being removed just before being filled etc. I cant wait for the squeeze.

postimg.cc/BLnJwBdn

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Was a decent finish to todays trades. One of these days, one of the bounces we've been having will stick, as simply, there wont be enough stock left to sell. Volume is key here. Very happy with the volumes. Would certainly rather be long than short, maybe the shorters are underestimating the markets understanding of the SFO situation, the news first broke 4 years ago, I feel a bear trap coming.

60k Spoof order sitting at 104p for over an hour. Just before there about to get bought they remove it. Horrendous Spoof layering. That's what Burford Capital wanted LSE to look into when there share got hammered, but no no.

"Shift Towards Growth Markets: We believe that growing exposure to growth markets, notably India, CIS, Thailand and Malaysia, has a mixed impact on Petrofac's business profile. Increasing geographic diversification brings higher execution risk, which is partly offset by Petrofac's track record of entering new markets and sound bidding discipline as well as oversight procedures. At end-2019, growth geographies accounted for around 45% of the company's E&C bidding pipeline."

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-publishes-petrofac-bbb-idr-outlook-negative-05-05-2020

The disclosed short position is sitting around 30 million shares. Yet PFC are positioning themselves ahead of all competitors regarding the energy transition over the next few decades.

"11% of the Group's ($41bn 2021) bidding pipeline consists of new energies opportunities"

This number is only going to increase. As the world comes out of lockdown and gets back to work, im sure the shorters are going to have a few sleepless nights about how they are going to buy THIRTY days worth of average volume. Im sure this started as a trade for many, however, as the outlook becomes clearer over the next few months these are staying in my bottom drawer.

As soon as all these massive buys going well over the offer price start to actually tick the price up, thats a good sign the market makers are not simply selling an order they have on there books, and are starting to facilitate an orderly market, rather than there own book.

https://www.petrofac.com/en-gb/investors/analyst-consensus/

2020: mean - 250m
2021: mean - 240m

Market cap - £360m. See past the share price manipulation and look forward to future dividends. Volume looks great, forcing the distressed sellers out low. You'd have thought being a shareholder in PFC you'd have done some due diligence on SFO, one man's loss is another man's gain!

Also, how is our resident "CapeView Capital" short interest in NETW going? I notice they increased there 4million share short at £2.1 on 5th November, now trading at £3.75. I see the high short interest here as a positive, when the squeeze comes the market won't be daft to let them get away with it too easily. Check IQE for example.

Just how many more does the seller have?

Thats the question noone but themselves know. Be prepared for a sharp bounce when its confirmed. Daily volumes well over 5 times average, trading about 2% of the stock per day, with 10% traded last friday. Some very amateur selling going on via level 2 (witness the 30k blocks (reduced from 50k yesterday btw)), tends to be why its is so easy to make money in the stock market, just because they are rich doesn't make them clever, infact, more often than not the opposite is true!

But why the sells just after the company has raised over £22million at 80p? Lambs to the slaughter.

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Ennismore were adding considerably to there short in April at 30p. Now in a steady uptrend with great long term fundamentals, there 13,000,000 share short isn't looking so hot. They are trying to close but average volume here is only 3m shares, I feel a squeeeeeze coming on. Hold onto your shares and make the fxkers squeel.

Barclays -
"The bank cut its price target to 230 pence from 330p. "
"Our price target remains based on a 15% discount rate to reflect the risks in the business, and includes an USD800 million penalty for alleged improper sales practices, both of which we hope will prove conservative and yield material further upside potential."

A massive fine is already priced in, don't be the one selling just when the outlook becomes clearer.

Think about the shorters position. They have net (disclosable) shorts of 28 million shares, some held from years ago. Do you exploit some temporary bad news to manipulate the share price down by selling a few hundred thousand more shares at opportune times to help your overall position? They probably intent to buy back the shares they sold over the last few days higher than they sold them, however, you have achieved your aim of manipulating the share price down by a few more percent to help your overall position than would otherwise had been the case.

Think longer term. Buying dips has always served me well. GLA