Member Info for Edgein

Nige,

Very true as this weakness in oil and gas price won't last forever, likely bank related, so a matter of time before oil is back on supply and demand fundamentals again. Perfect timing for CRCL at the moment to take advantage of the oil price weakness. Be interesting to see how this all pans out and certainly encouraging to see them pursing these deals as JP was over in Brazil late Fed/early March, the mention in today's results show they're still in progress. Will they feature in the near term rebrand? Lets see.

Regards,
Ed.

Nige,

Absolutely, it'll be interesting to see what happens and when. Its a good time to be fully loaded when the company keeps talking about how exciting and transformational 2023 will be. Looking forward to some of this concluding. Well personally I'd expect some sort of debt (RBL) and equity mix for the oil and gas transaction as production would come with reserves. Be interesting to see how this all plays out in the coming weeks.

Regards,
Ed.

Eazy,

Agree 100%. "OPTIMALLY CONCLUDE" sounds very bullish and confident of a positive outcome for both RBL and JV. Today's news has significantly reduced the risks here and allows the upgrading of BFU, but we have potentially significantly more material news in the pipeline. The reason for the drop from 16-6p has now been overridden. Looks like we are leaving the period much stronger than when we entered it.

Regards,
Ed.

Eazy,

Another key point in the RNS too is the fact that the 2024 and 2025 bonds have been kicked into the long grass into 2027 and 2028. Giving COPL plenty of time to get production up from the BFU upgrades and see what they can get from the CCU and Fed Deep wells long before those bonds mature.

Regards,
Ed.

The new bond funding allows the brakes to come off BFU production and reserves, given the tiny cap that's pretty much unlimited upside given what the growing cashflow can be used on. Very strange that those that were predicting a placing over the last couple of weeks got it horribly wrong. Lets see what happens with these RBL and JV negotiations.

Regards,
Ed.

Nige,

Yeah interesting read, again highlighting the multiple activities of the company. Brazilian oil and gas acquisitions still in the pipeline and getting closer to see some Mt Weld action. Assets of £5.1m and a cap of £2.4m, I wonder which of the coming news will make these finally fly.

Regards,
Ed.

Bladder,

Agreed the meteoric rise in production from the BFU is as material as the RNS release on 1st Feb, it materially impacts on the previous situation as a going concern and more importantly is showing the well interventions on the BFU are working. That in turn is very positive for the future cash flow and ability to eventually buy out that future hedge. BFU shouldn't be part of any JV NDA which is likely only CCU and Fed deeps. The correct information had to come out in the flaring hearing. The ops update due apparently within in days needs to be a detailed one.

Regards,
Ed.

More importantly for RBL the 40.5mmbbls 2P at CCU and BFU (RS July 22), with the massive oil discovery at CCU and BFFDU as an added incentive.

Regards,
Ed.

Steve,

I doubt it. I couldn't see any of those little woke lefty banks like SVB funding oil and gas development, its likely to be one of the more material institutions over there. Key thing here is the racing oil production and the oil price.

Regards,
Ed.

Jambo,

RBL anyone??

According to that informative chap yesterday we're at the tail end of refinancing. I guess that's why we've read that they intend to drawdown before the end of March. With production racing up to 1700-1800bopd looks as if they're almost out of the woods.

Regards,
Ed.

Wilbury,

As Mcfcnige has suggested the excitement hasn't gone away, this isn't a traders stock right now. Its got relatively low volume and illiquid so overlooked so far by the herd so far. But the items that are looming are still looming. Lets see if they're more heavily traded if they progress the jv, hit something at Mt Weld or on the Canegrass pegmatite cluster or acquire some oil and gas. Rebrand was within 6 weeks or so of the 24th Feb interview, that puts it to early April. Lets see then. I bought millions of shares here with a 1-2 year outlook not a 1-2 week outlook. I bought for the Ni JV, the rest are just a bonus as would an oil and gas acquisition.

Regards,
Ed.

Shareant,

100%, COPL should have done what they did last October and put out the presentation and RNS of the result of the flaring approval. Lots of key points in that presentation yesterday.

1 They only flared 25% of the permitted gas as its gas they've paid for so only flaring the bare minimum. Therefore not wasting money.

2. The five featured wells from last October's presentation no longer feature in the current wells for flaring as job done, they're now tied in to gas gathering providing a stronger production base.

3. These upgrades are working as the production they're now getting in around 1700-1800bopd, well up on the 1100bopd around the start of the year.

4. 50% recoverable projected from the 100mmbbls STOOIP with flow rates expected above 5000bopd.

5. Infrastructure upgrades will allow for 10mmcfd injection rates continuously if they want as the upgrades can handle that.

6. Almost at the end of the financing (not mentioned in the last couple of RNS releases).

All of the above news worthy, the increase in production is material to the company as its unhedged at 1700bopd+, that's as much of a game changer as the live oil flowing from the Frontier 1 for the first time. Art needs to sort out the news flow as this should come through the market not just through the Wyoming flaring hearings. Had this been RNS'd properly we wouldn't be at 6p!

Regards,
Ed.

There's a lot of options onshore Brazil for corcel to choose from and clearly a lot of activity going on too:

https://www.upstreamonline.com/production/brazilian-onshore-poised-for-revival-with-bold-target-to-double-production/2-1-923387

Regards,
Ed.

Nige,

No idea, that will be in the hands of the PNG authorities, so just a wait for mining licences to get them approved by their relative government department. Very little CRCL can say or do about that, just wait.

Regards,
Ed.

Stevebru,

You just never know on AIM. Take EUA for example, for years stuck at 0.25-0.4p many of us couldn't figure out why it was stuck at £12-20m cap given their huge asset. Then they announced that they were thinking of selling or JV on their large PGM asset and it suddenly launched up to 44p. So similar could potentially happen here. HZM as I previously mentioned are developing a large Ni asset in Brazil which has 3Mt of contained Ni (measured and indicated), Wowo gap 100% and Mambare 41% have according to Corcel 2.5Mt gross of contained Ni (mainly inferred with a large chunk indicated). While HZM are much further on in terms of reserve definition and development etc their £400m market cap shows the potential of IBM in PNG and the scale of some Brazilian Ni projects. So several pence per share for IBM alone looks easily achievable, way more if it gets developed. Exciting times.

Regards,
Ed.

Luke,

That might happen over time, be interesting to see what they suggest at the end of the month rebrand. Mt Weld is already farmed out so no need for CRCL to do anything on that until the assays come in. Then hopefully they'll retain their 50% if commercial. Canegrass they may farm out we'll just have to see. So everything covered so far under JV with the exception of Canegrass. Should they acquire Brazilian oil and gas production I can't see them farming that out.

Regards,
Ed.

Guys true, any one of the following could set these off, commercial REEs at Mt Weld, confirmation of commercial lith at the mapped pegmatite cluster at Canegrass (neighbours already have good grades from their assets) , market recognising the significance of the JV on the Ni assets as it allows the drilling and upgrading of mambare and wowo gap. An acquisition of Brazilian oil and gas production (see EDR and EOG for what modest production has done to their market caps).

Like SK says, 1 or 2 days trading can make all the difference. A couple of days in the top gainers would do the trick to get these towards some sort of realistic market cap and arrival of the herd.

Regards,
Ed.

Luke,

CRCL have already found the rich partners that recognise what they have. The JV is due to complete in the near term according to the recent interview. Then they can move to list IBM.

Regards,
Ed.

Reply was meant for post by thefearlesslad rather than stevebru

Stevebru,

That's a good question. Market got this one entirely wrong, you can see that by the drop off when they shelved the FGS assets. Those were low margin and given the volatility in the gas price, high risk (see MED). They completely overlooked the huge Ni assets here. They're comparable in scale to those of HZM, see its market cap. CRCL need the cash to get these up to Measured and indicated so market has ignored those. Luckily the Chinese and Koreans didn't though and came in for the JV which is close to completion. Those companies have the scale to develop Mambare and Wowo gap and whatever other battery metals they want to add to IBM. Once IBM gets listed, lets see how long it takes the Asians to get rigs in to drill this out and samples taken for DFS etc.

I see the new REE and lith assets as a bonus that could also multibag CRCL, if they add oil and gas production to that all the better as that could fund future drilling campaigns. The herd will likely arrive once they complete some of these acquisitions or if they hit REEs at Mt Weld. I'm just glad to be fully loaded before this happens and well below the price of the recent fundraising. I'm here for IBM the other recent developments are just a bonus, looking forward to seeing what the upcoming rebrand is all about.

Regards,
Ed.