Member Info for Edgein

Roll up and take your pick:

CCU
"Successful recompletion of the 11-27 well for oil production before year-end"

"should allow the Company to book significant oil reserve additions to Cole Creek as the base of the perforations is approximately 785 feet below the crestal area of the Cole Creek anticline located 1 mile to the northwest."

RBL:
"the Company expects term sheets from at least two of the institutions in the near term."

JV:
"COPL has agreed to this request and has been recently advised that a potential way forward will be presented by the JV Party in early January 2023."

Oh lord won't you buy me a Mercedes Benz or a Buggetti Vera made by Giuseppe's scrapyard in Sicily (engine is optional).

Regards,
Ed.

Shouldn't really be an issue right now, they did get a mention on the news and likely have lying snow, but temp ranges from -8C at night right up to +7C degrees daytime over the next 7 days according to Mr Google.

https://www.weather.gov/riw/

Regards,
Ed.

Shaa,

Yes that would be a more realistic price to where we are now, clearly if they can proven Frontier 1 oil well down the CCU structure that sifts the posts again. As would all 7 of the recompletions coming in (fingers crossed). Terms of the JV if completed could also move the dial quite a bit.

Regards,
Ed.

Hi Shaa,

I sure did fella twas great, hope you had a good one too!

Well that would work, I'd also be tempted by £5.00 per share, but 75p would barely cover about half of the BFU. Now that Art is unhedged (currently) he'd be in no rush to accept low ball offers. We could be a matter of days away from proving up the Frontier 1 at CCU (if it doesn't need frac and also depending on the abominable weather). Exciting times, bring on those term sheets and the JV offer then we're likely to see a more realistic price for the current assets.

Regards,
Ed.

£200m would be just £5/bbl for US 2P light oil reserves (large portion of those PDP) and would account zero for the injected gas ($70m), the mf infrastructure already in place $120m and they'd get the cc/fed deeps for free. Let that sink in. Would I accept 75p per share, would I ****.

Regards,
Ed.

Stockpile,

When they have injected circa $70m gas into the BFU, own $120m of surface infrastructure and have 2P Proven and probable reserves of 40.5mmbbls (Page 12 October 22) worth circa NPV10 $492m (July 22). Then there certainly is a discrepancy with our $50m odd market cap.

Regards,
Ed.

Ps. and right up to this point in the post I didn't even mention the 993mmbbls in place discovery on part of the acreage.

Pilot,

Yeah great interview guys and good timing right before the Christmas break. Sounds like the RBL is progressing and is sitting in the hands of the banks. Hopefully after the Christmas shut down they'll be ready to deliver some term sheets and get that concluded.

Very interesting talk about the CC anticline and compared to that other giant anticline. Also sounds as if they think they can get the first well flowing without fracc too. Good stuff. As discussed yesterday this is all unhedged production now, also interesting to hear his talk about the 2024 hedge. A lot could have changed between now and March 2024 production wise for COPL, given his comments 2024 hedge not likely to be an issue.

So BFU really needs the RBL completed to let the reservoir rip, and CCU really just needs $150k to add more unhedged profitable production and take it from there.

So lots of little guys came knocking followed by a larger one. Presentation in November which is now filtering its way up to senior management over there with the big one. They all know each other according to Art, come on Art get your buddies to sign off a good jv and let us multibag towards fair value for the gas injected, the infrastructure and the 2P of 40.5mmbbls, let alone the upside on BFU and CCU PUD and contingent. Would be nice to see the current assets valued in let alone the future ones. :)

Regards,
Ed.

The mediocre bits would be the production is still bobbling about at 1400-1500bopd, so not much real sign of progress there yet. However the cancelling of the 2023 swaps and putting in place a put option on WTI certainly gives them more headroom. That's important as the Cole Creek campaign has now started and the Fed deeps to follow shortly. We could therefore as others have suggested have a lot of free cash flow in the first half of 2023 as a result of today's news. Lets hope the 7 CC workovers do their magic.

Key part to that release is the progress being made on the RBL and more importantly the JV front that would turn around the company's fortunes quick smart. Clearly the signing of the RBL will all for the necessary infrastructure completion to address the production part of this RNS. January will be a very interesting month to see the terms of these potential developments.

"Given the nature of the discussions and the accompanying high level of due diligence and financial evaluation, the Company expects term sheets from at least two of the institutions in the near term."

"COPL has agreed to this request and has been recently advised that a potential way forward will be presented by the JV Party in early January 2023."

That makes them sound like they're keen on getting an agreeable solution for both parties. I guess its the 993mmbbls what does it.

Regards,
Ed.

Good morning Tiburn,

Yeah every little bit helps for sure, especially if they add to current cash flow. Agreed too that they are more relevant to the JV than to the RBL.

Chickster,

Interesting, would be nice to see some of that out in a news release. Hopefully Art will get us a news release soon given this last statement:

"The Company is in the process of lining up fracture services to re-complete the first of the six wells. While the Company hopes to secure all of the services required for December operations, the tight oilfield services market may cause field operations to be initiated in January."

Hopefully see a general ops update in the near term, including progress you mention with the facilities, and also flow lines upgrades.

Regards,
Ed.

ITD,

I reckon you've just answered your own question with your response. These well workovers on the CCU look like firstly test wells to see what the Frontier 1 frac can do to existing wells. A very low cost test compared to drilling a new horizontal. If successful they will convert some reserves to booked PDP, but will more importantly be easily brought to production via the existing facilities at CCU. That would be very very useful additional cash flow if they come on close to the anticipated rates that some are speculating. I would be pleased with lower rates than what have been mentioned as its all potentially additional cashflow and production. To get the the highest production performance from these reservoirs will take long fracced laterals from an experienced operator imo, roll on the JV. But the merits of working over these 6 existing wells is clear. Maybe they can use some of these wells in future for sidetracking to laterals and save some on drilling new wells. But with the right JV partner that becomes a little irrelevant.

Regards,
Ed.

Chickster,

Interesting post.

"Enhanced facilities are now in place."

Surely that would have to come as a news release rather than an email to an individual investor? Completion of the facility upgrades I would class as significant news.

Regards,
Ed.

Tiburn,

I agree with most of your post. However the amount of 2P created by these vertical well workovers won't be substantial compared to the 2P that already exists on the BFU and CC. Which should be more than enough at present to cover an RBL. I don't agree that the RBL will require the CCU workovers.

Might the JVP want to participate in that workover programme or want to see the results of that, perhaps. We'll find that out in due course I guess.

ITD,

I see you still haven't quite gotten your head around what the RS report was based on, it was based on the CCU and western BFFDU.

"I assume he is expecting the mysterious JV partner to stump up some cash so Copl can drill these 6 to prove ... what ??? that theres a link between CC and the Fed deep and so its a bigger field than first thought. "

No Art and his team have modeled the Deeps discovery as CCU, BFFDU and the non-unitized lands to the north west and south east of our acreage. The volumes they came up with was up to 1.9bn bbls for that. The RS report covered mainly the CCU and western BFFDU and came up with just shy on 1bn bbls in place. To increase the RS numbers beyond that they would have to drill beyond the western BFFDU and delineate areas not covered by the RS report. they already have a good idea there is oil in the CCU Frontiers and Dakota from the drilling done to date.

Regards,
Ed.

Duster,

Exactly. Not sure why people were expecting October to average 1666bopd when for months the production was circa 1400bopd. That would have meant, taking the first half of October at 1400bopd then the second half of October would have had to be at least 500bopd higher to get an average for October of 1666bopd. Around the end of October Art said the production had hit 1600bopd but was volatile. He certainly didn't mention anywhere close to 1900-2000bopd for the second half of October, we would likely have seen an RNS had that been the case.

I was hoping to see a little improvement in production for the second half of October was at some point during the month 1600bopd had been hit according to Art. But lets see what happens for BFU production in November. Hopefully see average production closer to Art's 1600bopd. 45k bbls for November would at least be a start in the right direction.

As for the main event though, come on Art get that RBL and/or JV done before Christmas. A bit of a Christmas fracc wouldn't go amiss right now either.

Regards,
Ed.

at the moment. I guess the traders are all licking their wounds over on ECO or trading BOIL. Come on Art slip out a JV while noone is looking.

Regards,
Ed.

COPL America, Inc. has a USD$42M (drawn) credit facility with a large US Credit Fund with no guarantees from its
parent Canadian Overseas Petroleum Limited

• COPL has approached a number of US banks to enter into a conventional Senior Loan and/or RBL to replace the
current facility as well as a Junior facility for operating flexibility.

From the recent interviews they're in talks with three banks to replace and refinance this debt and the current hedge. Debt is around $1/bbl for our 40.5mmboe and has a repayment schedule right through to 2024 (convertible loan is currently being converted). Not only is that pretty tiny leverage against our current reserves but there's plans to significantly increased unhedged production in the near term by unrestricted production from the BFU, thanks to the flaring permits and also 6 low cost near term recompletions in the CCU.

That is if they don't in the mean time conclude the RBL or JV under negotiations. Current debt is tiny compared to our current Net Asset Value.

Kdogg pivotal time indeed with operations to increase production ongoing and RBL and JV talks coming to a conclusion.

Regards,
Ed.

Ticor,

Not sure where you see a 30% drop coming from, all I can see is a massive discount applied to our 2P reserves, infrastructure and gas injected. The current reserves and contingent at BFU and CCU is enough to support a mid-cap status. If they do get a successful jv and prove up the massive discovery (these reservoirs are highly productive across the PRB), then we can multiply that. There currently is enough though at the BFU to justify a much bigger market cap. When the rerate comes its going to be spectacular imo.

1509, glad you liked my comparison. :) BB2 damn right fella, significantly oversold, but for how long. Come on Art shuffle that JV along to a conclusion.

Regards,
Ed.

Someone tried this earlier this morning and failed with a shambolic attempt, here's the accurate one:

NPV10 of COPL's 2P reserves $492m (July 22)

They could increase both the 2P and NPV by around 60% by just converting or proving up the contingent on the BFU and CCU.

COPL’s 2021 Year End Reserve Report was updated to an effective date of July 31, 2022 (Post CUDA Acquisition)

COPL's property plant and Equipment based on those reserves $141.6m.

$633m total or £553m or about £2 per share for the basics.

At the time RS not only updated COPL's reserves to July 22 they also assessed the massive discovery in the 3 Frontier sands and Dakota (from the recent presentation):

"• COPL has made a significant stratigraphic oil discovery in the Barron Flats Federal (Deep) Unit (“BFFDU”) and non-Unit lands extending west to the Cole Creek Unit (“CCU”)

• Majority of the resource is in the Upper Cretaceous Frontier Fm sands with the minority in the Lower Cretaceous Dakota Fm

• Contingent Resources have been booked for the Frontier 2 and Dakota Formations extending from the Proved and Probable Reserve areas in the CCU to the BFFDU (pages 23,24)

• COPL has been approached by a large recognized oil company regarding a JV to delineate and develop the discovery, with discussions continuing."

Now for 88e:

Value of 2P reserves $0m, infrastrcuture to produce those reserves $0m, large discoveries on part of their land independently verified: none.

Regards,
Ed.

Matt,

I hope they're getting paid overtime for their efforts, copl certainly isn't good for their blood pressure and the best has yet to come.

Regards
Ed.

Here is one recent acquisition by Surge Energy in Canada (bear in mind too that Canadian oil tends to get a discount to WTI)

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2022/11/02/2547099/0/en/Surge-Energy-Inc-Announces-a-245-Million-200-Million-Net-Strategic-Core-Area-Acquisition-and-Financings-Anticipated-14-Dividend-Increase-Increased-2022-Production-Rate-Exit-Guidanc.html

$245m for just 3850bopd.

Not that COPL plans to sell out very soon imo, much better to do that once the reserves and production has been transformed.

Regards,
Ed.

it would cost more than our market cap! Hype my big hairy......

Regards,
Ed.