Member Info for Edgein

Nomadic,

There are a few bargains around that's for sure. Money talks in the end so those companies that keep banging out the growth in reserves and productions will eventually see fair value. In some cases materially higher than current value.

Regards,
Ed.

Tiburn,

Spot on. As more of these 7 are completed across the various Frontier 1 sands they'll move prospective to contingent to 2P as the RNS suggests. COPL are doing all this on the cheap as the wells and infrastructure are already there. As of today they've now proved a pretty extensive oil column flows live oil to surface. Next well is updip within that column. Well as you suggest a lot has changed since the 1940's and also even 10.5 years ago these very large companies wouldn't really care about these small zones that swallow drill mud and cement, they're looking for bigger stuff usually. But their loss is definitely our gain. What was a small overlooked zone is now pulling in potential JV interest to our 100% wi. Very interesting times ahead just from this workover/re-completion campaign let alone the upcoming Fed deep horizontals.

Regards,
Ed.

it'll be interesting to see how the additional 50ft in this well will respond to frac when it gets perforated and how the 56ft of the next well respond too (230ft shallower than this one). A one mile horizontal is 5280ft so we can see the significance of today's news even if the market cannot. It doesn't mean 100x the productivity as there may be changes in reservoir quality etc but it shows that these future wells could be very productive once fully cleaned up.

Regards,
Ed.

R_Dunc,

Agreed chap, was thinking the same thing when was away from the screen, there will be relentless updates now from these CCU wells given that its multiple wells with multiple sands. So as you say 6 months of very active news flow from the CCU. We may also get some updates regarding the RBL, JV and Fed Deep wells in this time too. Soon be time to reflect some of this in the share price. I agree too on the fact that Art seems to be focused on reserves, right down to the bottom on this first well and we know that the oil is stratigraphic beyond the CC anticline, delineate and prove up as much reserves as possible. Those Fed Deeps well approvals will be a continuation of that imo. All the pieces from Cuda and Atomic are now in the box, Art has played another piece of the puzzle today, many more to be placed in 2023.

Regards,
Ed.

R_Dunc,

Absolutely, next one is updip from this location, so higher up the already impressive oil column, so next location is within this known live oil column. Sounds like some will be fracced and some won't be, before they all get fracced later this year. But clearly a very important result to prove mobile oil down to this point for the rest of these recompletions. Art also keeping costs low by only fraccing when necessary.

Regards,
Ed.

Yes guys great to see these live oil flow rates from just one of the sands and done so without faccing the reservoir. As most will know here the Frontier sands are drilled with 1-2 mile horizontal wells by our neighbours, so this is a great result from a single vertical well. As Art says it proves an oil column from the crest down for another 760ft and shows no signs of pinching out, therefore linely could be delineated further towards Fed deeps. As others have mentioned too this is additional 2P above the 40.5mmbbls of 2P already at BFU and CCU, so even more reserves over a large area that need to be priced in here. Hopefully this is the start of the share price heading towards fair value. Lots more wells and conventional reservoirs to be perforated in this campaign yet. A small but very good taste of what's to come today, I hope those banks and potential JV company are watching closely.

Regards,
Ed.

Tiburn, MEMoney,

agreed its gonna be down to the detail, whether its cash, carry, well commitments etc etc fine detail will be gone over first. But since we're currently on a large discount on our current 2P reserves, I'd imagine it will be along the lines of the mother of all news releases and share price too. Ask any shareholder of a small cap oil and ask if they'd like a major to farm in and you'll get a typical response. It would only happen to those with the assets for it. Hopefully see the end of some of these small traders once and for all, specifically if it comes with a relentless back to back drill campaign. But lets wait and see what happens when the JV present their potential way forward early January (not much of early January left now).

Regards,
Ed.

Duster,

More likely to be mud and electric logs. Can't keep the flow rates confidential as COPL are a PLC and that's price sensitive information. Logs aren't, they're commercially sensitive.

Regards,
Ed.

Should have said north west*

LLP,

Interesting stuff there, good find. Confidentiality requested on both wells (I guess to be expected due to the material nature of the discovery). Both wells heading North east on bottom hole location so back towards CCU under BFU obviously. Both quite close together too as they're both around block 19 on those maps provided. Hopefully a potential sweet spot (thicker sands) identified by the cloud of doom.

Regards,
Ed.

Wookiee,

Very true, the supermarket style brokers with their tiny fees do encourage traders for sure as do the spreadbet companies. With $bn being thrown at imaginary internet coins in recent years too there's a strange market at the moment. Its a bit like the tech boom of the 1990's, reality will finally sink in as it did then. Those companies with large assets will shine through. We'll see what these imminent CCU completions and near term Fed deep wells do to our production and reserves near term. We've already got mid cap style 2P reserves.

Regards,
Ed.

Jambo,

Absolutely, a masterstroke as Art said in the subsequent video, removal of the hedges means the company is profitable at the current production level as it was the hedge causing the losses. Now that combined with the tap facility means that they can get on with it in the near term. They don't need to generate that much either to eventually buy out those future hedge positions. So key timing on that ahead of the potential JV. Be interesting to see what these 6 or 7 well re-completions do to our overall production (100% owned CCU). Exciting times.

Regards,
Ed.

Tiburn,

Yeah true the market is discounting our reserves down to just £1.23/bbl, which for US onshore light oil is madness. We'll see if their assumptions are correct in due course. The market is also assuming that we don't have recoverable oil beyond the Upper and Lower shannon. I've a lot of money riding on the fact that they are wrong on both counts. Roll on the JV.

Regards,
Ed.

Tiburn,

Not sure that I would agree with that. 2P reserves were audited again by Ryder Scott in July 2022 and gross 2P regardless of the pressure constraints from the infrastructure were 40.5mmbbl. Art did make the point that its not the reservoir that's the problem its the low pressure system attached to high pressure wells. Therefore the oil down there remains recoverable.

Regards,
Ed.

LLP

"EOG, Continental, Devon, Denbury and Exxon (doing gas only, but XTO Energy – owned by Exxon"

When you look at the other participants in the PRB of Wyoming it kinda suggests there's significant upside there, even for the likes of the mighty COPL.

Regards,
Ed.

Shaa,

I believe it was a hint alright. We know how positive Art has been regarding the current assets. This because the market puts a large discount on the BFU 2P reserves (currently valued at just £1.23/bbl) and doesn't believe that the giant field exists doesn't mean they're right. I was there for the early days of Oilexco when Art drove a small cap to mid tier, significant NS player. Looks very like he's gonna do the same thing here. The reference is that he's suggesting that COPL are the comparable company not the potential JV partner that he worked with previously. If they have 993mmbbls in place on part of their acreage (as suggested by COPL and Ryder Scott), then its an interesting comparison, especially given the recovery factors previously mentioned. Perhaps not Occidental in size, but perhaps a mini Occidental, that's a lot of oil for a small cap LSEer like COPL.

Regards,
Ed.

PK,

Absolutely, good stuff. Some moan when they don't know where the drilling money is coming from and moan again when they do! Can't please everyone. Minor dilution opens up the door to those CCU completions, bring it on. Also allows for the upfront costs of completing the RBL, Now due to be signed this month with the JV update on the way forward due early this month too. Well done Art, this RNS looks like the bow on top of the present that Art is lining up to unwrap for us this month. Exciting times, RBL, JV and CCU completions all expected to be updated in the near term.

For those that didn't like the Occidental comparison, they also had to start somewhere, for COPL 993mmbbls in place is a great place to start.

Regards,
Ed.

Good morning Shaa,

Well I'd imagine that they'll get the workover rig to do all 7 CCU recompletions back to back with each well being tested and determined if they need frac. 1 stage frac on a vert shouldn't take that long, but it should result in very steady news flow over the next few months. Personally I'm waiting for the announcement in early January before we see the spud of the Fed deeps and if Art has suddenly, perhaps almost overnight, secured lots of intermediate casing. Nudge nudge wink wink. After that may come a fairly relentless Fed deeps and CCU Frontier drilling campaign, fingers crossed.

Some time during all this they'll also, fingers crossed, complete all BFU upgrades by March/April and we'll be gushing from multiple wells. That's the ideal scenario, intermingled with some RBL and JV hopefully. If JV concludes early Jan, I don't see why they cannot crack on at a rate of knots. And they haven't even priced in the BFU yet, I hope the MM's read the bit about potentially significant reserves from the Frontier 1 if the CCU recompletions go as planned

Regards,
Ed.

Tiburn,

Agreed, I'd imagine that we'll hear something about the first well recompletions early next week, possibly Tuesday. Art did say they may need frac but lets wait and see. Not a big deal if it comes to that. Every bbl helps when unhedged and we're now on the cusp of multiple transformational releases. Looks like the costless hedge cancellation and rejig is finally sinking in with the market. Exciting times, we could pop towards fair value at any time.

Regards,
Ed.

Harold,

You just never know. That well in question is suggested to be recompleted by year end. Not much of year end left now. Danger for those trading is that Canada trades on Friday evening, more opportunity for a news release. For those of us holding though its an easy position. Bring on the news avalanche.

Regards,
Ed.