Member Info for Edgein

Eazy,

Interesting discovery you made. These ops are certainly directed towards the future rather than the here and now and getting immediate production up. An interesting insight into what Art is actually doing next week and spending current $ resources on. Business as usual then it seems.

Regards,
Ed.

Yankee,

There is no doubting the assets and their potential. Yesterday's announcement will have come as a surprise to most given the interview in late December where Art said they were making money after the hedges had been renegotiated. Everyone had thought that COPL had turned a corner. Unfortunately this is not the first time that a Canadian oiler has put out a report were the main focus was their going concern (even though COPL are in talks for months for RBL and JV). Interesting to see Art's response as posted by Stas.

We've seen the same multi account posters on here before at the time Essar was taking COPL to court over 226 and how they were going bust then too, well they're still here. Imo its now a case of seeing what comes of these RBL and JV talks. Hopefully they can keep increasing their CCU production in the near term. They're in a completely different place now than they were vs Essar, now they have 40.5mmbbls of 2P worth a heck of a lot more than £20m and a large discovery as confirmed by RS of 993mmbbls in place (the bulk of that around their 100% CCU).

So come on Art its up to you get some of these deals done and get it back on track again.

Regards,
Ed.

Complete shocker indeed, its in total contradiction to what was said about 1 month ago, has a few days shutin made that much difference!

"We are pleased with the result as it is expected to provide COPL with increased exposure to WTI upside and stabilised operating cash flow in early 2023. It also provides for a level of revenue protection and maintains cost protection for butane injections at our Shannon Miscible Flood."

Regards,
Ed.

HH1983,

Art still has to follow the rules though of the LSE and CSE on material news. Some thought that the CCU result would also be NDA but not the case. Without proof I don't follow its already spudded theory I'm afraid. I would agree with BB's post that the BFFDU wells are dependent on the JV talks. A large recognised potential JV company can't get in for free as both parties recognise the size of the resource and CCU has 2P and contingent already booked. So JV has to bring either a large cash payment (compared to our cap) or an agreed carry for a set number of wells or $m spend.

That may well involve future wells on both CCU and BFFDU. I'm sure we all know how vitally important for Art to get this right at this stage. So imo we'll get at least these first three CCU recompletions done and tested, maybe even the frac programme before we see any action on the BFFDU drilling. If they're a large company with exclusivity, Art has already said they're the preferred partner, they'll not be in a rush. But at the end of the day Art still has to follow listing rules and spud of the Fed Deeps on a target that size is material news. Also take Shell, Total etc offshore Namibia, wells remained tight holes (limited info released) but they still mentioned spud dates and discoveries (but very little else).

Regards,
Ed.

Yeah there was an estimated spud date of the 8th Jan, but silence from the company since. My guess is its still looming on the horizon. Perhaps awaiting the outcome of the potential JV talks, perhaps they're still looking for intermediate casing. Until we get an RNS or interview confirming the well status then all we can do is guess.

Regards,
Ed.

HH1983,

We'll just have to wait and see what modern horizontal wells will do on both CCU ans BFFDU as you suggest. At the time they acquired Cuda I and others had a good poke around on their site. Frontier 1 wells tend to do between 600-4000bopd. The closest well to our acreage was one to the north of BFU and it did 1350bopd. So while I think your 400bopd is conservative even for a short lateral well I also think 2000bopd is over optimistic too, I'd be more than happy with 400-600bopd from the first couple of short laterals. All might change very rapidly though if we see a possible JV work programme with perhaps a lot of 2 milers in there. Lets see what happens in due course.

Regards,
Ed.

non stimulated not "now stimulated"

Regards,
Ed.

HH1983,

Exactly. Art said that the potential JV partner was to present a potential way forward to the company in early January. We know from last week's interview they recognise the size of the resource and are interested to see the now stimulated flow rates from the Cole Creek Frontier 1. Hopefully that will lead to a deal in the near future. In the mean time though lots more well completions to come from the CCU work programme.

Regards,
Ed.

Smish,

Yes that's the level of crazy I'm talking about!

Regards,
Ed.

Matt,

I would say the nest is built and the goose will be here shortly. :) All the parts are here now, Atomic, Cuda, live flowing oil in the Frontier 1. They just need to be assembled through the JV and start piling millions of bbls on top of our 40.5mmbbls 2P, currently valued at just over £1/bbl currently. That's the craziest thing I've seen since Edmund Blackadder stuck pencils up his nose and put his underwear on his head.

Regards,
Ed.

MD248,

While you're at it you should also take a look at the opposition party:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-starmer-just-stop-oil-donations-b2259261.html

Totally coincidentally Labour's energy policy is to build lots and lots more wind farms rather than exploit the UK's oil, gas and coal reserves. That policy worked wonders since the 1990's, that's another fine mess they'll get us into. Anyone know a PLC that makes candles? Perhaps Art could send some of that wax over. :)

Regards,
Ed.

Hi Tiburn,

Well Art seems to be running COPL as if he were still running mid-tier Oilexco. News gets clumped together etc. But recent interviews and news releases have been better, more detail. To be fair there was only so much he could cover in that interview and the unfortunately the interviewer seemed a little unprepared to me. He should have asked some questions like what the fractures mentioned or the pressure means for the discovery rather than thank you goodbye. Until they get fractures in COPL's wells rather than Mobil's wells he probably cannot focus too much on that yet. But if there is natural fracture like mentioned in the interview then that will have implications for the future wells.

He could certainly comment on that when they drill their horizontal wells as to reservoir quality and natural fracture network. PRB could be like the sandstone version of the Austin chalks, some areas of it are highly naturally fractured and flow without stimulation (most of it needs frac though). There is the potential though given those comments in the interview that Cole creek may be naturally fractured, too little information to go on at present. Just comments made in that last interview. We'll find out once COPL start to drill new wells though. I agree though if there's a lot of natural fractures down there it changes the economics of the wells and their productivity so a big deal.

Regards,
Ed.

Shaa, absolutely. If 40.5mmbbls 2P (gross before royalties) isn't enough for folks we could have a whole lot more than that soon. As Art said every producing well converts right up to 2P. The dial cranks up considerably if they are able to get a partner in to help fund these development wells. Interesting times ahead, floodgates will imo open if they announce a JV drill programme. Current 2P reserves makes this severely oversold, we're still not close to valuing in the Atomic and Cuda acquisitions. Interesting times ahead, every RNS is going that little bit further to prove up that massive Frontier discovery (confirmed by Ryder Scott).

Regards,
Ed.

Seatank,

Well it all depends on how confident you are to signing a deal. He's apparently worked with them before, "he knows them and they know him". So he's likely confident that they'll get a deal over the line. If not I guess he can resume talks with some of those other interested parties. Given the time they've taken on DD and were willing to propose a potential way forward early this month (and from their interest in Monday's interview regarding the CC non-frac flow rates) they seem pretty keen to me.

Regards,
Ed.

Seatank,

They were approached by several companies, then along came an recognised large company and Art was more interested in talking to them. As per previous interviews.

Regards,
Ed.

TF,

Why look at the deeper well first? We Art is pretty confident that this is a big discovery. So picking the deepest well and showing that it flows proves oil down to this point in the structure. Therefore maximum acreage covered and anything updip from that towards the top of the structure should be derisked as the structure has live oil down to this point. What folks aren't picking up on, and something that Art covered in the recent interview is the wells weren't drilled ideally. They were drilled with water based mud, therefore they've had the degradation issue close to the wellbore, oil degraded to sludge, That and the reservoir quality being good (naturally fractured too from last interview) meant that the cement from the casing also penetrated the reservoir. So reservoir quality is high. But regardless of these issues close to the wellbore it still manages to flow live oil in increasing volumes as the oil drill fluid and cement clears up. That just shows how willing this Frontier sand is to flow to surface.

Now imagine that new wells are drilled with oil based drill mud and not water based, a well that is drilled with the correct mud weight etc so less fluid and cement enters the reservoir and then they test that! The fact that the reservoir is naturally fractured means that some of the future horizontal wells may not need frac, lowering costs and potentially increasing the recoverable oil. Monday's news was highly significant to derisking the Frontier 1 at CCU and Fed deeps. Live oil is there and flowing through less than ideal conditions due to how the old wells were drilled. Reservoir quality is there with the mention of drilling mud and cement easily entering the reservoir and Art talking about the fractures. Pressure is there and also the Fed Deeps discovery well, gassy oil meaning there's a natural pressure due to the GOR. People just need to listen to that last interview on the Frontier 1. The clues are all there.

Regards,
Ed.

"Listening to that interview I get the impression that our potential JV partner want CC proven up before signing a deal."

Its a good job then that the Frontier 1 sand flowed naturally and they've two more F1 sands to test in that well too. Art also mentioned gassy oil and the natural pressure of the reservoir here and at the Fed deep discovery well that they drilled. Ultimately those factors would influence reservoir performance and more importantly horizontal well performance. That's what made yesterday's news much more significant than the market realised. Also the longer any potential JV partner waits the more wells that COPL will have recompleted, the more producing wells the more the F1 reserves get upgraded the larger the price.

Regards,
Ed.

Genghis,

Well that interview certainly did flow like the discussions were about what was happening in Cole Creek at the moment and the large resource that exists there and extends for some distance according to Art.

Regards,
Ed.

And we have a chunk of them at Cole creek, not all of our 2P and contingent etc is at BFU. If they want in they have to show us the money.

Regards,
Ed.

Art,

I think one JV should suffice over the CCU and BFFDU as its two assets that actually look like one big field, potential JV party seems to think the same according to that interview. Oil over 8000 acres at CCU looks like these sands at Frontier 1 continue to the well 3Km to the East, etc. One large field would only really require 1 large company for the JV. Still in talks, talking about the productivity of these wells (not surprisingly), they're interested in the inflow rates of the wells unfracced. We're more interested in their cash outflow rate into a potential JV! Lets see what further straws do and who eventually has ownership of them. :)

Regards,
Ed.