Member Info for Edgein

Shaa,

That would be perfect timing, once the shorters are away filling their fat faces with chicken nuggets hit them with an ops update. Deep fry them EUA style.

Regards,
Ed.

Its worth peoples time to check out the September 2022 presentation again (page 14). Is interesting as there are three new flow lines back to the gas gathering system in the upgrade, each will allow the pressure to be managed from multiple wells. Some of those are quite short and I don't see why all three would need to be done simultaneously. Its possible at least one of the shorter lines has been completed as the five wells highlighted in the first gas flaring hearing no longer need flaring. So in other words COPL shouldn't need to spend $11m all at once, but over time. Those two short flow lines should allow for a number of wells to be pressure managed much better. The longer flow line (west) clearly brings many more wells into the new high pressure system as it also branches north. Hopefully get a lot more detail on this in the upcoming ops update.

Regards,
Ed.

Nige,

I would say that based on the current indicated reserve we should be £20-30m cap on these large assets, similar to other miners pre-funding. The JV would increase this value as those large companies bring in a much better opportunity for drilling, resource upgrade and eventual funding. Just like ARCM going up today in anticipation of their JV. Of course commercial grade REEs at Mt Weld if we're lucky or Brazilian oil and gas production would be a game changer to this valuation too.

Regards,
Ed.

Nige,

Well HZM are much further down the path to production than us. They've around 3Mt of contained Ni in the M&I reserve category and are close to completing their mine construction, its a very large project. So they're bigger and financed to production. But still a non-producer. A more similar company to CRCL would be ARCM, Zambian copper. They've announced today that they're close to getting a JV with a subsidiary of Anglo American (similar to CRCL with the Chinese and Koreans). They are also a non-producer capped at around £45m, not funded for production etc and with much smaller assets than Mambare and Wowo gap. Some companies on AIM get grossly over sold, in this case the market focused on the low margin FGS and ignored the large scale Ni assets. Didn't stop the SE Asians from spotting it though. Now multiple projects on the go with more to come. Ridiculous market cap given the upside on Wowo gap alone, absolutely.

Regards,
Ed.

Mal,

Market cap here is £19m. Gas injected is circa $70m, net infrastructure is $120m. Just 9 more wells into the BFU and the gas gathering infrastructure upgraded and they can bring pretty much all of that 40.5mmbbls of 2P right up to PDP reserves. I've seen those change hands in north America at circa $20/bbl. So cap covered by current assets by quite a few multiples. Market value will hopefully recover from the recent flustercluck quite quickly, fingers crossed. A clear plan to increased production and BFU upgrades should do it.

Regards,
Ed.

I didn't even have to mention the JV or the massive discovery.

Horizonte Minerals don't have an income stream but yet have a market cap of £366m. Lets see what happens to our £2.5m market cap if they encounter commercial grade REEs at Mt Weld or get recognition for the large companies coming in for JV. The oil and gas acquisition(s) might complete first though.

Regards,
Ed.

Tuvok,

Yes the JV news would be a game changer here for sure, Art would have to dance to the large company tune. However it would all add up. If he gets those CCU wells recompleted and stimulated and BFU production keeps rising that's a material development. They have the 2P and the massive upside and pretty much none of it priced in. Once the tide turns and the herd comes back again it'll regain its lost momemtum.

Regards,
Ed.

Turvok,

lol

Yeah he's not too wise with his choices, outer Mongolia, might as well be outer space given their operational performance over the last 10 years or so. At least COPL have the assets.

Regards,
Ed.

Stas can't argue with that. AM's handling of the cash balance of the company has been a disaster, keeping cash on hand is one of the basics and keeping it above those covenants should have been a priority. We shareholders paid that price on the 1st Feb. But what keeps me holding and now adding is the surge in production from just above 1000bopd to around 1700-1800bopd and the recent rectifying of the cash position.

With circa $70m in injected gas, about $120m in infrastructure and NPV just shy of $500m it makes the current cap based on total voting rights (just for eddy) is insanity! Priced like it was going bust. But as you say markets are fickle. He'll be talk of the town if he gets that jv done and BFU upgraded.

Regards,
Ed.

Eddy,

Oh, very sorry I thought you were taking the p**s.

Regards,
Ed.

OH,

That must be the one! The Sunday Sport must have been right! All I can say next is poor hamster. Perhaps bonds and warrants do have voting rights, or perhaps not. I think my legs might be made out of chocolate.

Regards,
Ed.

Eddy,

I read once that Freddy Starr ate someone's hamster and that a London bus was found on the moon. Seems like Telegram contains similar odd stories.

Regards,
Ed.

Bladder,

Yes anything that they can do to up production at relatively low cost must take priority. That would include the basic recompletions on those 7 CCU wells and BFU gas gathering infrastructure. Then moving on to a multi well frac of those CCU wells as you suggest, that may provide even more game changing info for the potential jv partner.

The dynamics would change on the right RBL though if it also has that revolver facility. Debt costs would come down, they would also have greater financial strength on top of the free cash and bond cash and should then look at Fed deeps, clearly also the jv would change dynamics yet again. We'll all be scouring the ops update for any info on that RBL and JV. Hopefully be reading that this week.

Regards,
Ed.

Nige,

Absolutely, looks like things are starting to slot into position. New guy in to arrange institutional finance for assets of unknown size as yet. There's been some amazing turn around on AIM oil and gas, fingers crossed CRCL will be another one of those (I3E, SRSP, SQZ). Regardless of the jv or new acquisitions we could get further updates on Canegrass or Mt Weld drilling any time too. As soon as Riversgold get approval for their 8 hole campaign we'll hear from CRCL. No wonder Mr Parson's interim statement was so bullish, gonna be an interesting few weeks, let alone 2023.

Regards,
Ed.

Morning Tiburn,

Yeah agreed its very good timing to get these funds in place to cover the total cost of the gas gathering upgrade as these various flow lines will go in staged over the 6 months. Like the first five wells that were previously flared now tied in. That may already account for the increased production (to 1700-1800bopd). As you say the bondholders will keep him to account so that he doesn't go off and spend the cash on fed deeps or some such. Between the bond money and the free cash flow from unhedged production he should be able to complete the CCU recompletions and he gas facility upgrades. These two activities run in parallel should then allow for increased cash flow from the incremental production. Its not too long ago that Art said that the pressure had constrained 600-900bopd. So the turn around could be pretty quick here if the funds are focused on the right things. Fed deeps and new CC wells later (or even better funded by someone else).

Hopefully the associated ops update will make for better reading than the finals. Not sure that the reserves update will show more than the 40.5mmbbls of gross 2P (RS July 2022). The CCU completions could make a material impact on the 2023 year end reserves report, potentially adding in that 8000 acres.

Regards,
Ed.

Wwal,

Im almost sure from past interviews etc that the original plan was to upgrade the facilities from September last year through to March, so even though they;ve not some wells tied into the facility (recent gas hearing) I'd assume that the rough 6 months still stands. So hopefully get that work done this calendar year, although timetables seem to be very variable so far when considering RBL and JV etc. Hopefully with the cash mountain and the increasing production (gas flaring hearing) things are back on track again.

Regards,
Ed.

Tiburn,

Yeas that is an interesting statement from a previous RNS:

" If at any time the Main Bondholder owns at least 20 per cent. of the total Company common shares in issue, the Main Bondholder has agreed to enter into a relationship agreement with the Company on customary terms in the London market "

I wonder what exactly that clause means, perhaps it means that they become a cornerstone investor (lock-in), or perhaps its to persuade them to remain below 20% at any one time. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. Certainly in all parties best interest to allow COPL to spend the coming months upgrading the facilities and eliminating the flaring. As that gas is worth multiples of our market cap and at this stage what's a few $m more to our $100m+ facilities. Hopefully then we'll see the outcome of the continuous mf, we've only had a snap shot of that so far. Its now down to Art to make the most of this new bond facility and the unhedged production.

Regards,
Ed.

Nige,

Lets hope so! :)

Mr Karam won't want to dilute himself too much from the 27% and will want to see those 0.8p warrants in the money.

The guy has been brought in as a sweetner to a financing deal, from today's release:

"following its recent strategic pivot, it has completed an equity placing with an oil and gas focused cornerstone Investor Group"

"Mr. Karam is connected to multiple institutional pools of capital and select business opportunities in the sector."

Regards,
Ed.

Nige,

He sure does sound connected and has been involved with some big deals. Lets hope he advises some of those 187+ financial institutions/central banks to take a look over Mr Parson's shopping list. :)

Regards,
Ed.

https://it.linkedin.com/in/antoine-karam-08a326105

"Chairman Of The Board at CYBER 1"

"Board Member and Advisor
Openway Group

2016 - Presente7 anni

Brussels Region, Belgium

Global Advisor to the board since 2016. Group composed of 187+ financial institutions, banks and central banks around the world. Promoted and facilitated international strategic partnerships on behalf of the group."

Sounds like the guy has a lot of heavyweight financial contacts which would be very useful for funding oil and gas acquisitions.

Nige,
I'd imagine that they're also looking at lithium and nickel assets in Brazil, but get the feeling that the more material assets will be the oil and gas production acquisitions. Hard to say what scale they are going to be on, probably small. But worth noting that Serica built themselves into a mid cap though a series of mature field acquisitions from BP. First step to oil production today with today's new cornerstone investor.

Regards,
Ed.