Member Info for Edgein

Stas,

From your 6 point list I think you've missed one of the key value levers that COPL have right now in the jv talks.

7. Producing developed reserves vs resources

Regards,
Ed.

Stas,

With $78m in injected gas (figures from last year), $120m and growing of surface infrastructure and NPV of $492m on our current 2P its bleeding obvious to most that our cap of £20m ish is very conservative. :)

Plus with the additional fact we could have XXXmmbbls of recoverable oil from the new massive discovery.

Regards,
Ed.

Stas,

I remember another little oil company (can't place the name right now) within the last couple of years were targeting attic oil at a mature field in SE Asia that had been shutin after a 90% water cut, they had modelling and placed a 90% CoS on their appraisal well. The updip area when drilled contained brine. It was best watched from a safe distance. At least NEO are prepared to give it a try from what they've seen, but those mature fields have their risks compared to new developments. The appraisal wells there will tell the tale if they get past the FID.

Regards,
Ed.

Pilot,

Can't see it being lesser to be honest, economics of the PRB and the NS are currently like chalk and cheese. I'd expect any eventual farmout deal (according to Art they were approached by more than one company) to be somewhere between JOG's deal and Stas's fall off chair deal.

Regards,
Ed.

Should really have said old field for redevelopment.

Regards,
Ed.

Pilot,

Very hard to compare like for like on that one, looks like a good enough deal for what it is as most new NS assets these days are stranded. Firstly, stating the obvious these are offshore, issue number two they're in the NS and thanks to the UK's windfall tax they'll have a tax regime on profit oil similar to Nigeria, tax on the NS is something like 85% now. All COPL have to deal with is a small state royalty and then tax on any eventual profit.

Buchan is largely an old field for new development so it has its own inherent risks with that too, also years to development if they do decide to go ahead with the FDP after the FID. COPL on the other hand will have 2P, including PDP reserves on CCU at Frontier 2, they're also at the moment aiming at establishing similar at the Frontier 1. The Frontier 1 is a new development, you could almost argue that Frontier 2 is too as its not had any EOR. Also shallow onshore for the mapped areas of the large discovery of light oil onshore. Economics will be vastly different for PRB as the article that I posted the other day shows. Interesting though that even though most of what JOG are targeting are prospective they still got an upfront cash payment. It will be interesting, if COPL complete the JV, if there is a similar cash element in that possible deal as they have a lump of 2P on CCU which includes PDP reserves. Unlike for JOG any new operator on CCU and BFFDU would be able to get on with it straight away as there's drill permits and production infrastructure there.

But interesting deal for JOG that at least brings them one step closer to a development decision, if COPL secure a partner I'd expect development wells fairly imminently after that. Perhaps into areas of Cole Creek currently producing live oil.

Regards,
Ed.

Confounded,

Well spotted, interesting little interview.

Just watching, most likely, the holes will need to be completed and then the samples sent off for assay.

Regards,
Ed.

Fastfood,

No WTI was largely similar in price in 2018 to now. Between now and then there was Covid and oil prices briefly went negative pretty much drilling ground to a halt. Rig rates are based on demand and therefore based on WTI price. I do know of a company that did drill a well deeper than the Frontiers, its name is COPL and it sure didn't pay anywhere close to $10-13m on that Frontier/Dakota discovery well and it sure didn't have a TVD of 9500ft. But nice try, just keep on trying to convince yourself of your inaccurate numbers. I'll await your evidence of wells drilled in the PRB to circa 7000ft that cost $10-13m (I've a feeling I'm gonna be waiting for a long time).

Regards,
Ed.

Fastfood,

Stick to burger king or mcdonalds as you haven't got a clue. Wells in this basin cost about 1/3 of what you're quoting. The average wells cost around $4-5m with those with long laterals around $6m.

https://jpt.spe.org/it-may-be-boom-time-oil-rich-powder-river-basin

Regards,
Ed.

Nige,

James Parsons said this in the interim report:

"Restructuring its PNG nickel assets, positioning them in a broader portfolio, on a fully carried basis, ready for a standalone listing which we expect to be at a highly attractive valuation"

I would imagine that the highly attractive valuation will be somewhat more than £3-4m when listed on the Singapore or Australian market, they have a much better idea of how to value mining assets than AIM does that's for sure. Also the added value those $bn companies bring to the new IBM listing will be significant. Once listed I would imagine that they'll get the drill onto Mambare or Wowo this year.

We're likely to see that GM to arrange the new shares for Canegrass soon too, hopefully the company will arrange a presentation or perhaps the rebrand around then too.

Regards,
Ed.

Nige,

The answer to that is not very much production would make an impact. Somehow, even though the company has two very large Ni assets at Mambare and Wowo gap the cap is just £3.2m approx. That alone is insane, it should be multiples of this just based on the indicated at Wowo gap. Mt Weld and Canegrass both look to have excellent exploration potential for our insanely small market value.

As for oil and gas, small producers like EDR and EOG for example are capped at around £10-15m on about 200bopd, whereas one of the market favourites like AXL are on 1500bopd and have a market cap of about £42m! So as you can see it won't take much scale of production to multibag that £3.2m market valuation. Although completion of the IBM jv or drilling at Mt Weld may come before they announce our first Brazilian oil and gas acquisition. A production acquisition would bring in reserves and obviously cash flow, so immediately transformational.

Regards,
Ed.

Mike,

Today's news from Riversgold also mentions drilling Mt Weld this Q too in the comments from Davy Lenigas.

Regards,
Ed.

Here is a more detailed look at what CRCL have just exercised their option over:

https://www.accesswire.com/732549/Exploration-Targeting-at-Canegrass-Reveals-Potential-for-LCT-Type-Pegmatites

Regards,
Ed.

Agreed guys, great to see CRCL add to the assets as promised. This is another high potential asset when you take a look at the results of the Canegrass neighbours. Another very exciting project. With this new high quality project it'll put even more pressure on our tiny market cap. Looking forward to those Brazilian oil and gas assets too, now that the new NED was brought in for that purpose.

Regards,
Ed.

So the company is at least getting on with the top priority right now which is the phase 1 upgrades. There's a very significant list of short term objectives in the MD&A which most holders seem to have read and picked up on over the weekend. Again focus is on the GGS upgrade and the CCU completions until we hear more about the RBL and JV.

Regards,
Ed.

Jarv,

Crazy risky for anyone to be short on this one, talks on the JV have been going on since September and recent update suggested that we'd get an update once detailed terms had been agreed. Deep fried would be getting off lightly if that drops. Vlad the impaler springs to mind for some reason.

Regards,
Ed.

DB,

Hindsight, no not exactly I was there with a 0.37p average. If you don't believe me check the exceelence thread on EUA over on ADVFN. You're welcome.

Regards,
Ed.

shaa,

True, the finals and the MD&A are likely to be very detailed again. I hope just before those he does a more punchy ops update based on the gas flaring hearing for example. Then summarizes that in the outlook or post period events in the finals. We really need a point by point ops update to hammer home the increase in production to 1700-1800bopd and what's going on with CCU and exactly when and how they're upgrading the BFU. Hammer that home and then slip out the finals before close. :) So far the only ones that know we're apparently on 1700-1800bopd are the ones that caught that recent gas flaring hearing. The last the market was informed it was back at 1400bopd. So lets hope ops update first.

Regards,
Ed.

Shaa,

I don't think the finals or the Q1 will be very pretty with the hedge etc. Its the ops update or what Art is going to do to rectify things is what we holders are looking out for. I'm looking forward to the ops update way more than the finals.

Regards,
Ed.

DB,

You clearly weren't in EUA when it did 0.4-44p. I still remember all the squirming the shorters did while it was suspended around 3p when they knew they were on the hook and weren't getting off. After suspension it rose rapidly from 7-13p before moving on to 44p. So a fitting example of deep fried shorters.

Regards,
Ed.