Member Info for Edgein

Tiburn,

We'll find out in due course. From the recent proactive interview and presentation it sounds as if the wax is under control and they can predict which wells are going to be impacted as the MF moves across the field. The total field infrastructure will take time, I don't see what that can't be resolved its just a time and money issue imo. Like others I'm expecting a rapid transformation over the next 12 months, but ultimate Fed deeps upside will take longer.

Regards,
Ed.

Tiburn,

Cuda got their hands on additional funds after Art acquired Atomic, I was surprised at the time they were able to get their hands on that at the time. All that really did was plug a small hole in their debt. But back then when BFU was heading for its first peak production things could have been played very differently. Focus could have went into infrastructure upgrade at that time using part of Cuda's cash and COPL's cash balance to resolve the issue. Also Art made it clear from acquiring Atomic that he wanted to consolidate the asset, clearly Cuda's management didn't want to play ball during that time. It ultimately led to their downfall.

So yeah there could have been several ways this could have played out, but Art got what he wanted from the start, consolidate the asset and do it as cheap as possible. Had Cuda still been listed when the offer was made it would have had to be well above $20m to secure that asset. So slower and more frustrating than many had hoped, but he got there in the end for as cheap as possible.

Regards,
Ed.

Tiburn,

When OIL hit a $4bn+ market cap they had significant debt, from memory about $1bn. COPL would have a fraction of that if we get close to their production rates.

Regards,
Ed.

They said in the last interview that they may have terms from the banks by end of September and possibly RBL Q4. So quite possibly 6 weeks from now, Art clearly didn't want to hold off his buys any longer. The RBL negotiations that have been ongoing have been public knowledge for some time now, even quantum mentioned in the last presentation.

Regards,
Ed.

to get Atomic and Cuda on the cheap. That equates to £54m and the oil price is up since then. No wonder Art dipped in as the market cap is around half that!

Crazy market, its as if they capitulated! :) To think also the only value that Art has been able to add since then is the massive confirmed discovery (RS) in the fed deeps.

Regards,
Ed.

Fingers,

Yeah great to see the CEO dip in for 1m more shares shares. A clear indication of where he sees the ops and future share price heading. Understandable as this one should be bags higher after those acquisitions and massive discovery. Art's gonna make himself more money well done.

Regards,
Ed.

Interesting! that's what Art needs to do, get out there and let the markets know that COPL is much much more than an expired Nigerian licence. Solid reserves growing production and a massive find. Positive, upbeat interviews is what we need for the market to recognise what COPL has actually acquired.

Regards,
Ed.

Dvilbuoy,

In your opinion. Some who are much more qualified and positioned than you predict significantly higher oil prices such as GS and JPM. Oil demand is predicted to increase a further 2.7% next year, I hope with the lack of investment and supply capacity in OPEC countries/NS etc can meet this growing demand. Keep your head in the sand.

Also oil was $90/bbl up from $60 not as a result of Ukraine/Russia but due to supply demand. On the 24th of Feb oil price rose from circa $90-120 due to the war.

Regards,
Ed.

Wwal,

You're welcome. I'm not here to hold anyone's hand.

Any thoughts on those selling cheap shares. Yes sure, they thought they were on for instant wealth and sold when it didn't arrive, some of us are here though for the years of drilling that lies ahead. Well as I've said in the past 70-80% of retail punters lose money and there's a reason for that. Friday was a clear demonstration of most not understanding what they're actually invested in.

hmm tell me this, do you understand how warrants work? Are these listed warrants? No. Have those warrants even been exercised into shares yet? No. Have you any evidence that the institutions that took those warrants have done anything with them? No.

Have the converible bonds been converted and sold, no again.

Regards,
Ed.

Kammi,

You are yet another prime example of those that read and didn't understand the release. If you had read and understood the release you would understand that RS had to limit the resources to areas under CC and only the western part of BFU. Whereas COPL previously were using almost the entire lease area and parts to the north that are not currently under their ownership. It comes as no big surprise that RS had to keep these numbers limited by the areas most drilled (CC). Folks don't realise that the resource report only covers part of COPL's acreage and missed a key point, that being the discoveries are stratigraphic as agreed by RS, therefore boundaries as yet unknown, they could continue many miles beyond the limits of this report and likely will.

But yesterday the traders didn't understand the difference between a reserve and resource report, they came up with all sorts of alternative explanations of what contingent reserves are and on and on and on it went. So I can fully understand Arty's frustration. Within minutes of the resource report there was the sell the news brigade, the mm's did their usual delay the large orders being filled as they're interested in volume rather than price. Some did understand the release, but given what was posted most didn't.

Folks seemed to expect massive numbers and reserves (yes even bigger than 1bn in place on part of the lease area), yet they've been told many times that they need to drill the wells to get these booked to reserves. Hopefully this will eventually sink in though. In a way though I'm glad there is so much frustration as now hopefully many of these traders will go gamble elsewhere and leave this one to the investors.

Regards,
Ed.

Pecten,

Oh the irony of your post!

"this is a prime example of a badly worded RNS, for people not au fait with how oil reserves/resources are described then it magnifies the hype around OIP numbers

This should have been released in a tabulated format, showing the levels of 1P, 2P, 3P and contingent resources claimed"

Your post is a prime example of people not understanding this business. This is a resource report, they cannot assign 2P or contingent without having wells drilled. Apart from a few historic wells COPL have only drilled one well as deep as the Dakota. Once folks figure out that this is a resource report not a reserve report it will be a promising start.

Regards,
Ed.

Barny,

Lets see what the contingent and recoverable reserves look like once they've drilled 118 wells perhaps. You do realise that COPL have only drilled one vertical well into the large discovery? Lets see what they get then all across their acreage, not just below BFU and CC. I agree though awesome start to get almost 1bn in place at this stage. Lots of wells to drill though over the coming years.

Regards,
Ed.

BB2,

Yeah great to see some contingent creeping in there. Canadian and Australian authorities do tend to be conservative when they do resource or reserves. But under about 40k of our acreage, not all of our acreage, there's almost 1bn in place. COPL have around 25% higher acreage than is in this report. I guess some of these 118 wells will take care of that. Its not every day that a £50m company can confirm a massive 1bn bbls on their lands and Arty sounds confident that even the first three wells could increase that. Certainly if they confirm oil beyond the current boundaries of BFU and CC, still on our leases, it would shoot up. So great start and about 118 wells to drill starting Q4.

Regards,
Ed.

Dealer,

Yes the market has to be informed first so that everyone has a crack at the same info. Arty will have seen the draft reports and he thinks its worth a special investors meet and presentation. So my interpretation of that is the report must at least meet his expectations because it looks like its getting the bells and whistles treatment.

Regards,
Ed.

Guitar,

Not sure if he'd release it on Friday, perhaps he might for the weekend press coverage. However its coming before Monday 4pm we can now be pretty sure of that. Exciting times, I've ordered the seat belt for my computer chair just in case.

Regards,
Ed.

Nipper,

Art said with MF as much as 50% of the oil could be recoverable. So I'd use that as a guide.

Regards,
Ed.

Shaa,

Oil viscosity ranges from sub 10 degrees API like tar or heavy oil to over 45 degrees like NGLS condensate etc or petrol. As you can imagine its easier to flow petrol-like hydrocarbons from a well than tar-like oil. Take PANR as an example, they believe they can only get around 10% recovery from their latest target (if its economic). So yes for light oil its possible to get 40-50% recovery as it moves much easier through the reservoir than stickier heavy or intermediate oil. Reservoir quality and pressure also play their part too of course.

Regards,
Ed.

I'm afraid I can see why it won't be 90% recoverable, we're not talking removing gold from gold oxides here were you can get around 98-99% recoverable. We're talking oil. Even in world class reservoirs like the NS is almost virtually impossible to get much more than 60-70% of the oil in place recoverable and that's with pressure support/EOR from world class reservoir quality. COPL do have light oil so that helps, but these reservoirs while conventional are tight and lack drive (solution gas or aquifer). Compare I3E's Serenity to the best wells in the PRB. Serenity did 6000bopd plus gas from around 11ft of net pay. In the PRB you'll be lucky to get 3-4000bopd from a 2 mile lateral. So reservoir quality and pressure plays a big part in the ability of the oil to move from the reservoir, as well as API of course. That also influences recovery. As Art suggest on MF of the fed deeps would likely recover up to 50% recovery which could be huge. So until there's some new technology created you can forget about 90%. I can't speak for you but 40-50% recoverable from over 1bn in place is more than enough to keep old Ed happy over the coming years.

Regards,
Ed.

Wwal,

The Sedar release suggested that Anavio weren't shareholders before they took the bulk of the bonds and warrants. Were they introduced to the company through the largest shareholders, perhaps.

Regards,
Ed.

Genuine reply,

Because about 70-80% of pi's lose money.

Regards,
Ed.