Member Info for Edgein

LT,

Its certainly interesting that Arty is targeting almost x10 the recoverable oil (from the BFU, CC, Fed deeps) to what PANR are doing from their latest escapade.

"Recoverable Resource (2020 IER) 76.5 mmbo"

That's PANR's internal estimates too, not independently verified via a CPR etc.

Regards,
Ed.

Harold,

Well it does hold back production temporarily, but a much higher reservoir quality than modeled (permeability) will lead to better well performance in the long run. Moreover higher than expected permeability means the oil will flow better through the reservoir and likely lead to higher EUR per well. At the current wti prices that's very positive for BFU reserves and ultimate NAV. Once they get the plumbing sorted and long term flow rates they can remodel the field in terms of production and reserves.

Regards,
Ed.

Regards,
Ed.

Cheers bob,

Well we're all in the same boat, patiently waiting from Cuda close, CPR, refinancing, plumbing, multiple dual lateral wells, at least 9 more wells into BFU and to ultimately know how much of that 1.6-1.9bn Stooip that COPL can recover. With the recent sale on I couldn't resist averaging up a little. Another little oiler made good gains today on posting positive flow rates. COPL have a lot of wells to drill to delineate their target, news flow should come thick and fast one the refinacing and plumbing sorted.

Regards,
Ed.

Bob,

Blue is hopefully a colour you like as you could be seeing quite a bit of it over H2. Getting close to the Cuda completion date and still very little of our 2P priced in for Atomic let alone anything else. I'm fully loaded since COPL's Cuda acquisition announcement.

Regards,
Ed.

Bladder,

"16 deliantion wells at 800bopd is a whopping 13k bopd"

That's certainly the potential, 16 wells with hopefully all dual lateral completions per well as Art hinted at gives great production potential this year and next. We could easily over take JSE's mature assets on reserves and catch them quite quickly on production if these first few horizontals go as planned. As Tiburn has highlighted this morning, the production potential from BFU, CC and Feds is compelling over the next 12 months. Great timing with soaring oil prices too.

Regards,
Ed.

Bladderman,

There's a resource report coming up to give an estimate of the oil in place and that will also hopefully cover RS interpretation of recoverable from different scenarios. To get a reserve report on the Fed deeps they need to get data from flowing wells, ie, reserve report comes after the drilling not the other way around. What Art has said is that the reservoirs while good condition, porosity and permeability are low energy. They need the EOR/MF to get to 50% recoverable in his view that's where the P50 recoverable of about 640-650mmbbls comes from, the data from the latest presentation (hopefully RS will say similar).

Regards,
Ed.

Edit,

Should have said 43mmbbls compared to 38mmbbls.

Regards,
Ed.

A reasonable comparison to make would be to look at JSE this morning, 43mmbbls compared to 48mmbbls. Production there is around 12.5k boepd. If all works out here with the plumbing and the fed deeps can't see why COPL couldn't give them a run for their money over the next 2 years or so. Also onshore USA is much less risky and lower devex. Hugely different market caps comparing these two, COPL magnitude higher potential from the fed deeps.

Regards,
Ed.

UDAA,

The significance of Cuda is that it adds 47% increase in working interest across all of the Wyoming assets. It raises our 2P reserves from 25mmbbls to 38mmbbls. Half of the new Fed deeps moves from circa 57% to 85% and the rest at Cole Creek moves to 100% ownership. This is big news to COPL who have recently said they're targeting as much as 650mmbbls in the Fed deeps. So almost as high impact as the original Atomic deal. We'll see the real impact after the refinance (Which gets easier the higher the WTI price gets) and the field plumbing is sorted.

Jacknose,

The upside here is as good as EUA was at £20m market cap. The company is targeting circa 700mmbbls from BFU, CC and Fed deeps. Even at a very low $10/bbl in the ground (WTI circa $117-120/bbl), its enormous potential. Even if they find a fraction of that we'll bag many times imo. Should be much higher on current reserves. My multi year target price remains in excess of £10/share, but lets see how they go with the September Fed deeps as that's where a lot of this upside is located. Cuda is another step in the right direction.

Regards,
Ed.

Stas,

Very true. Fair points though this morning that he could have played up the Fed deeps more (which would have brought more attention to Cuda), or he could have made Cuda management an offer they couldn't refuse facing receivership, perhaps sealing the deal quicker. But as it transpires it seems we've got Cuda for a snip. He did grow Oilexco very aggressively, I was in from the first cluster well on Brenda/Nicol. I would imagine if all goes well on the BFU and first couple of Fed deeps the same pattern will follow here (just without the costs of operating offshore).

Oilexco was my biggest profit before EUA, COPL I anticipate to be bigger than those two combined, they're targeting 700mmbbls of recoverable oil from the recent presentation (38mmbbls BFU/CC and 650mmbbls approx Frontier and Dakota). So very much all to play for at this point.

Regards,
Ed.

BB2,

Yes indeed the NPV of the BFU with the Cuda interests are 38mmbbls or $380m NPV. Interestingly when you consider that they're targeting 650mmbbls in the Frontier and Dakota (April 2022 presentation), its almost x20 the amount of oil. Of course oil produced isn't coming out of the ground at just $10/bbl as sha pointed out its $109/bbl! I don't know about the rest of you chaps but I'll not be selling a single one of these to gamble on UKOG. Its like chalk and cheese. I wonder how many of these price chasers on UKOG and VAST will end up getting spiked.

Regards,
Ed.

Tiburn,

I would imagine the new senior debt facility will be somewhat larger than that. At least $65m to replace $45m + bridge loan, with a decent revolver facility on top of that minimum. See for example what Sirius Petroleum claim to have secured from Trafigura on the SRSP website for a smaller asset.

Regards,
Ed.

Beesty,

Certainly, news flow has been very good of late again. From demolishing the snake oil salesmen to updating on Cuda, he sure did poke the bees nest with that news with all the new accounts buzzing around. Rectifying the presentation to one of the most information packed presentations I've seen in some time. Lots more to come too on the resource report to the next stages of Cuda. Once the drilling starts properly on the BFU and Fed deeps the news flow should be as relentless as the cashflow.

Regards,
Ed.

Shaa,

Absolutely. We can imagine what will happen once refinanced. He sure has a lot of drilling plans in that presentation for both the Fed deeps and BFU. Should start to see some traction after that. As you say he's got Atomic and Cuda not much left with that small CNOOC interest in only half the assets. While the $380m values the 2P at $10/bbl as you rightly point out WTI is staying circa $100/bbl. If Art gets the right results from the first few wells share price will get real interest real fast, tis why I'm making sure I'm fully loaded before that.

Regards,
Ed.

Regards,
Ed.

Shaa,

Absolutely we're grossly undervalued. We've got $78m of infrastructure and $380m of 2P reserves, in comparison 88e has an awful lot of hope and a drilling record comparable to EME. Once this one pops it'll pop hard, imo only a matter of time before it starts to reflect the reserves from the BFU. RS might have some good news for us too in May. :)

Regards,
Ed.

Shaa,

Art did point out the strength that Cuda adds to the potential leverage of the company. But worth noting that we already have Net 24mmbbls of only modestly leveraged reserves currently and Cuda looks to be in the bag (pending only court approvals). Given the recent presentation it looks as if talks are already underway involving those European banks/American bank that art mentioned in interview. We'll find out in due course just how quickly this develops. In the mean time our 2P reserves are valued at just £1.31/bbl, pretty cheap considering that wti is circa $100/bbl.

Regards,
Ed.

Tiburn,

Very good post. From your post Art stated they've been working on Cuda since last June and in numerous interviews etc he has stated about the refinance of the company.

Then we have this:

Refinancing of Credit Facility
• COPL America, Inc. has a USD$45M (drawn) credit facility with a
large US Credit Fund with no guarantees from its parent Canadian
Overseas Petroleum Limited
• COPL is currently in discussions with a US bank to enter into a
conventional RBL to replace the current facility as well as a
revolver for operating flexibility
• Syndication of this proposed facility is being solicited to two
European Banks lending to the energy sector through a Paris based
debt advisor
• COPL is undertaking this refinance to reduce its cost of capital and
to provide enhanced operating flexibility
• Target: Early Q2 2022

So some on here might like to give the impression that its a new process, but its certainly not. Looks like we're on for court approval, then refinancing and then lots of wells before year end. Perhaps sometime the market will price in our current 2P. :) Exciting times, it currently reminds me of when EUA was below 0.4p.

Regards,
Ed.

Sidney,

What a presentation that is too! I've been loading up more since the news on Cuda broke. 2P now 38mmbbls net with an NPV of $380m or $10/bbl. Base case for the Frontier and Dakota combined coming in with a targte recoverable of about 650mmbbls is spectacular. My original target was for about half of that. refinancing due early Q2 to put the full picture into motion. Imagine if the market starts to price in our current 2P. wow significant bags there let alone drill all those wells into the significant discovery.

Love the details in there, short horizontals to be drilled below the BFU for starters with EOR from the get go. Also cost saving by doing vertical and identifying the best two reservoirs for dual completions. Thought these may be single horizontals, but dual completions on two reservoirs per well makes a lot of sense and saves on well costs. So both refinance and CPR due soon. Couldn't help myself but to add down here.

Regards,
Ed.

Bladder,

Cuda has been high impact for sure already doubling cashflow and the action hasn't even started yet, It even part paid for itself due to the credit owed to Atomic, plus a large part of that $20m facility. Even twice that price would have been cheap at over $100/bbl wti for 13mmbbls of light oil. KIST for example on their last acquisition paid $20/boe for North Sea gas. So cheap as chips for Cuda. H2 should be a different ball game in terms of Atomics and Cuda's impact. Goodness knows someone might have even seen grouse by then.

Regards,
Ed.

Harry,

Yes he did also mention that the reservoir was outperforming expectations so it would be natural to expect that once the constraints have been resolved and max rates achieved that there would be an upward revision of the 2P for at last BFU and perhaps similar for CC too if it performs as well. 2P recoverable will be based on well performance.

But he was suggesting that the same MF already in place could also be used on Fed deeps to also give an impressive recoverable from those planned short horizontal wells. But until we know what the resource is in place beyond the stated 1.6bn STOOIP its harder to judge the recoverable. But as a result of acquiring Cuda and the recent interview I've upped my long term price target on these. According to the interview RS has spotted a few more positives regarding the fed deeps so that might upgrade the oil in place further. Hence my comments about waiting for the resource report before trying to calculate the possible future 2P.

Regards,
Ed.