Member Info for Edgein

Should be easy to replace with our current gross 2P of 31mmbbls approx at this oil price. Especially with the data showing the almost sea of oil in the Frontier and Dakota according to Art's Jan 10th release and falling off chairs etc.

Regards,
Ed.

Here is something serious alright! We're fast approaching the $39/bbl when COPL acquired Atomic and said at the time it had an NPV of $185m. There just happens to be another $100/bbl in front of it now! Insanity that you can get these at around the same cap they were then. Regardless of finding 1.5bnbbls odd in place on the licences since. Oil price has increased a massive x3.2 times. Somethings gotta give here eventually, oil approaching $130/bbl and by many accounts set to go higher.

Regards,
Ed.

Tiburn,

"According to the market, thats worth an average SP 35p if valuing the reserves and the current gross production of 2000 bopd."

According to the market they're currently valuing our gross 2P reserves (31mmbbls) at about £2.20/bbl for 2P PDP onshore USA even though the WTI price is circa $110/bbl. That's about an 80% discount on reserves without factoring in anything for massive or even large extra discoveries on top of this.

Lets see if this changes some what post Cuda. I wouldn't imagine there would be such a discount once BFU sorted.

Regards,
Ed.

HfB,

"Current simulation modelling by a third-party experindicates up to 51 MMbbls, based on 100% WI, could ultimately be recovered in a full field development scenario"

That would put Cuda's reserves into the region of 13.77mmbbls back then, say 13mmbbls now to be a bit conservative. At $2.18 that would be about $28m (minus the millions that Cuda owe us). Art did say way back that his intention was to buy out the junior interests on the same metrics or less than what he paid for Atomic. It certainly does support the posts on here of a minimum of $20m bid. We'll see in due course. I agree though chaps, it should eliminate at least the smaller companies.

Regards,
Ed.

Hopefully from August 2022 you'll no longer be looking at the hedges but hopefully the trees with lots of low hanging fruit. That hedge won't look so bad if they get production materially higher. Its up to Art to get that sorted.

Regards,
Ed.

Sorry post below should say 426 days not 446 days. :)

Regards,
Ed.

Their level of working interest has nothing to do with the hedge, they've agreed to sell 386k bbls over the year. That averages about 1052bopd to fulfill that contract. Given previous production levels of Circa 1300bopd net they more than cover the hedge at present. Hopefully by a lot more soon, once the Cuda situation is sorted and they work on the pressure in BFU. Of course potentially by a lot more from September onward.

Regards,
Ed.

Noob

yes but Cuda has effectively went bust and the oil hedge that Art set up is COPL specific and probably at the request of the lender to cover the amount due for Atomic. Did Cuda even have a hedge? Also depending on what price Cuda sells for the creditors for Cuda only likely to get cents on the dollar from the sale unless it somehow sells for over $70m odd.

Regards,
Ed.

No idea why you're using 0.55 interest. COPL have agreed to sell 384k bbls this year through the hedge that works out at 1052bopd over the year 365 days. The following year from 1st Jan 23 to 29th Feb 24 is 446 days is about 976bopd per day average over the hedge duration. As of last update COPL does about 1400bopd from the BFU and 100bopd Dakota so not all production will be hedged.

Regards,
Ed.

Noob,

I don't think Cuda's production would be hedged, well not for long at least since they are in receivership. If Art wins them could part of the increased production get hedged, we'd have to wait and see how he would fund them if he wins. At the moment though all Art has to fulfill is the current hedged volumes.

Regards,
Ed.

The hedge that I can see is 384kbbls from Jan 22-Dec 22 or about 1052bopd. The hedge from Jan 23-Feb 24 (14 months) 416k bbls or 978bopd.

Regards,
Ed.

I cannot see COPL selling any gas at any point in the foreseeable future unless they buy separate gas assets. All of the gas involved with the BFU is just recycled back into the reservoir. Once that has peaked they planned to do the same thing on the CC field. The reserves are almost entirely oil and NGLs, very little gas in either BF or CC. Given the modest but growing gas prices and NGL price in US, I'd rather see much more valuable oil getting sold at wti prices. Butane has also been hedged through to 2024 for the MF, so plenty of time to get oil production above and beyond the current hedge of around 1000bopd. By the time that oil hedge runs out I'd expect net production to be many times that.

Regards,
Ed.

Shouston,

Hopefully we'll find out in due course about additional leases. According to the company statement on the news releases, they've been looking for assets in Wyoming for some time. March next week, time flies, hopefully a busy news month ahead.

Regards,
Ed.

Noob sure, pools it can be, premium bonds, hopefully not, Euromillions perhaps, even better the US megamillions. Take your pick. Anyone guess where the Frontier fits in?

Come on Art are you gonna get more leases, part of the master plan, lease holder updip still talking?

Regards,
Ed.

Tiburn,

Well he and his technical team have loads of experience from the Oilexco days, running one of the largest NS independents. He'll have strategy alright, he released the massive discovery RNS when it suited him, well had been drilled months prior to that. Not as if managing really just the one field (BFU) was taking up all his time. We're not privy to the AM strategy but there will be a plan. He's turned a company on the verge into a company with huge upside and he did it on the cheap.

The master plan will be revealed in due course imo. It was one of the infamous CEO's in the past that described their company as pregnant with news, might have been big Dave Lenigas, can't remember. But COPL is about to pop out some news in the near term. Cuda is about to be reborn, just don't know who the father is yet. March will hopefully be the month that we finally launch. Atomic had an NPV of circa $185m, oil price is x2.5 times what it was then.

#Only here for the multibags

Regards,
Ed.

“The Biden administration continues to defy the courts and the law,” said Barrasso. “The BLM has blown past a critical deadline required to hold the first federal onshore oil and gas lease sale this year. As a result, Wyoming and other Western states will now miss oil and gas lease sales for the fifth quarter in a row. Even in the face of a global energy crisis, historic inflation, and skyrocketing gasoline prices, the Biden administration continues to crush U.S. energy production.”

For goodness sake someone buy the man an alarm clock!

Regards,
Ed.

Shouston,

Oh I agree, once Cuda is finally resolved the floodgates are likely to open.

They can then resolve the too much pressure issues and get the production up significantly. While the hedge stays on the oil price until 2024 its important to note that the hedge also remains on the Butane price too, saving COPL $m in injection costs.

The market does like clarity though and we're getting closer and closer to that on Cuda, who is gonna buy it, hope much for etc will all be answered soon. Art's buying does suggest though that there's good news to come as £225k isn't a small insider buy. Goodness knows what will come out during the blackout insider buy period. Hopefully the next production update will be a good one. I agree with the chaps here, huge upside in 2022. Long term £10 minimum still the target.

I have no plans to sell any of these for the foreseeable future, in fact I'll looking forward to this one turning into another income/dividend stock with high growth.

Regards,
Ed.

Tiburn,

Exactly. We know that the BFU has been out performing, if I'm not mistaken Cuda did a reserve upgrade on one of their 51-101s. Combine reservoir and reserve performance with a totally different oil price environment and hint at a massive discovery (already producing from the Dakota) and he should be on good grounds for a new facility. Given the fact that the winning bidder is likely to know by now to work on the quite ambitious completion date, its gonna be about 12mmbbls 2P for someone. Who knows for sure, but Art like surprise news releases and its something that he did talk about.

Regards,
Ed.

Tiburn,

Art did hint at an new senior debt package as the Atomic deal was put together quickly. There may be quite a lot happening at COPL over a short period of time. Also the receiver suggested that they want Cuda Wyoming deal completed by end of March. So the winning bidder will need to know soon as is usual the effective date of an acquisition is usually many months before the completion date. There will be a lot of paper to shuffle between now and the end of March. I wonder who the successful bidder might be.

Regards,
Ed.

AJEP,

Your calcs looks about spot on to me, again we'll have to see how the 2P production and netbacks stack up. I agree its all to play for now and COPL are very well positioned, its there for the taking at present.

My 3-5 year price target here is £10-£40/share (depending on dilution etc), the US assets alone should be big enough for a multi-billion company, just from the US alone. Since 10th of Jan I now see Nigeria as largely irrelevant, in fact I would like to see every $ they produce to go back into FD, BFU and CC. If they can pick up cheap PRB acreage a bonus. PRB is an established area, I wouldn't be as bullish if it had been an underexplored basin. We've mobile live oil in the shannon (BFU), Frontier (CC) and now Dakota (new well). So now the company has a lot of work to do and a lot of wells to drill. So early days, but clearly potential is enormous. First step Cuda, get that resolved, build production base and get drilling those FD wells. Lets see where the share price settles then. COPL wouldn't be the first PRB producer to get a lot of oil out of the ground, hopefully they'll be the next though. Conventional light oil in good quality reservoir, what's not to like.

Regards,
Ed.