Member Info for Edgein

Jiddy,

Very true Atomic was priced at rock bottom and the oil price is circa x35/bbl higher than the price Art paid for those reserves (just over $2/bbl acquisition cost). Its not got an NPV of over $350m. The producing asset has outperformed and has higher than expected flowing pressures. So recoverable there is likely to increase too.

Add to that the recent giant discovery in the Frontier and Dakota and that's where we are now. Will be nice when some of this is priced into our market cap.

Regards,
Ed.

to think that these are still trading below where they were before closing the Atomic deal, let alone announcing a 1.6-1.9bn bbl discovery in addition to that. So it would be nice to see the market price in the BFU and CC let alone the new monster. I guess we've still a few bottom sellers to clear before proper launch. EUA did get stuck at 0.4p for a while too before it 100 bagged. I'm looking forward to an EUA+ performance from this one. Great to hear the high quality reservoir sands that was soaking up Art's drill fluid and cement. Better reservoir quality equals better oil recovery factors.

Regards,
Ed.

Tiburn,

My guess would be BFD COPL/CNOOC 85/15%
COPL BFU/CC 55-65% Balance Cuda/Cnooc.

BFU should still be reasonably priced, CC may have increased in value due to Frontier/Dakota. Hopefully Art will get the deal done and take us to a flat 85%.

Regards,
Ed.

Also Bob,

Little EDG only had 5% of Buzzard, COPL has 55-85% ownership in Wyoming, hopefully if they manage to secure Cuda it'll be a flat rate of about 85%. I can't see CNOOC wanting to sell the remaining 15%.

Regards,
Ed.

Bob,

Its quite similar in size to the Buzzard field which was the largest UK discovery in the last 20 years. Buzzard has 1.5bn bbls in place. COPL's coming in with a mean of about 1.4bn bbls. Conventional light oil is normally 40-50% recoverable. Even 10% in COPL's case would be transformative. Its the closest find among the small caps (Edinburgh oil and gas) that I can think of and I've been investing in O&G for about 30 years now.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buzzard_oil_field

Regards,
Ed.

I'm a former Oilexco holder, OIL managed about 60mmbbls of 2P from memory. That would be less than 5% recoverable from this new discovery. COPL is looking like Oilexco on steroids. Not only by about a factor of 10 or so but also its like they took all of OIL's discoveries and slid them onshore, and COPL has very very little debt in comparison too. We were warned here though by the fact that some of our neighbours in the PRB had significant reserves and flow rates, with flow rates per well of about 600-4000bopd. This has been know since they acquired Atomic. We've now got info from the latest well is that it also exists over our acreage too. Imagine if 88e had discovered **** loads of oil, welcome to COPL.

Regards,
Ed.

Mother-load has been hit. Cuda still indebted to us which will deter others. Hopefully this news means we're also close to terms on Cuda. Either way now today's news is breathtaking. 3 wells per sq mile and 51 square miles of discovery, breathtaking.

Regards,
Ed.

Ole Ed isn't too far away, been busy researching other companies etc. Not posting much these days as a result. My opinion of COPL hasn't changed though, they're in a very strong position and Cuda in a very weak one. Will Art make a bid and put it to bed early or will he hang on and wait on the court decision on the BFU plus damages first. Clearly he won't want to talk up his target assets. Alberta assets could be interesting too for a well funded company. Like the chaps have been saying here today's news is a clear sign imo that he wants to renegotiate or replace the senior debt for the Cuda deal.

No pain no gain, I wouldn't rule out more financing for Cuda especially with the reserve performance and Canadian companies have to do an annual audit of reserves (that includes Cuda too). We all know how BFU can perform, especially from horizontal wells. Development well numbers have dropped from 18 to just 9 due to field performance, they simply don't need as many wells to recover a greater amount of oil. Cuda is hanging over us at the moment but it will be of significant benefit to us LTH if he can get the deal done. Someone on here said it limits the upside because of more shares, does it heck, adding Cuda, its reserves and upside expands the upside exponentially of they are the successful bidder. The company is trading currently at about £1.20/bbl of 2P light oil reserves, for the USA that is crazy.

Fed deeps, don't expect miracles from the damaged reservoir from the vertical well, hopefully it'll flow circa 100bopd or thereabouts, but there's a reason that those surrounding fields do 10-80,000bopd from horizontal wells. Even take out own BFU as an example, horizontal well doing circa 700-850bopd whereas the vertical wells to up to about 180bopd. This current well only gives us a brief glimpse of what the Fed deeps is likely to do from those multiple formations on a horizontal drill programme (hopefully in 2022).

Hopefully new NED will help get Cuda across the line in the near term, especially with the legal action hanging over cuda from SWP. As Tiburn has highlighted in recent posts ole Ed here is expecting exponential growth in production and reserves in 2022, but don't really want to say too much about those production links at this stage. Exciting times.

Regards,
Ed.

Frankly given their current market cap the unassigned upside is most of the current 2P reserves which have a NAV of around $350m at $84/bbl. The upside beyond this will be the additional reserves generated by the assets out-performing expectations and already requiring infrastructure upgrades. Recoverable increasing from 5% under natural flow rates to 50% under current gas injection test rates is very impressive, we've still to see what an unrestricted rate will be when doing 10mmcfd not restricted by infrastructure capacity or butane supply. What the large leap in recoverable tells us that for wells of moderate depth to be flowing at 4000psi is way above natural pressure and therefore the communication between injector and producer is clearly very very good. For Nigeria now to come in to rival Wyoming it would need to come good on most of the 9 compartments associated with Noa.

The unassigned upside is most of the current reserves and production let alone how much they can recover from MF of CC and the Fed deeps.

Regards,
Ed.

when it goes, but that chart looks interesting at the moment as after 0.42p looks like a straight run to 0.8p. Probably why Zak and Art mentioned that price in the recent interview. Once there it would be a good time to release another production update. :)

Regards,
Ed.

in the current well back at the 1st of September. So they should really be well into the testing programme by now if not almost complete. I guess that may attract some FOMO's or last minute Larry's etc. Be useful to know if they've upgraded the infrastructure by now too so that the rapid climb can continue.

Regards,
Ed.

Noob,

Nope all I have to do is ignore the noise and trading and sit back while COPL transforms itself into a mid cap producer. Its already got the assets for it. NPV is already into the hundreds of million $, Cuda already reporting an increase in reserves from just 3 months of miscible flood performance. What traders do or who comes and goes over the next 3-5 years is largely irrelevant.

Regards,
Ed.

No Fomo equals less volatility as less traders sell after news. The well is likely to produce similar to the other vertical wells into the BFU, in around 170-200bopd or there about, good stuff on the current oil prices as that'll be supported by the miscible flood. The deeper formations will require long horizontal completions, the purpose of the well was to see if there was oil in these formations below BFU. Now that they know its there they can plan horizontal drilling campaign just like the one planned for 2-4 wells to be drilled at Cole Creek.

Regards,
Ed.

April to September actually. Back on the subject of COPL though since we are on their bb, I wonder when we'll hear about the current well completion. Shouldn't be very long now.

Regards,
Ed.

Iron,

Yes from April to August the share price of UOG has moved from 6p to 2.7p. No wonder Earl/peck was looking to offload those onto others.

Regards,
Ed.

During the same period coincidentally COPL's production increased around 123%.

Regards,
Ed.

From April that one has fallen from 6p to now 2.7p, what a wonderful performance!

Regards,
Ed.

Iron,

Your little tipster buddy EarlofAim is just down 17.3% on his UOG today, whoopsie! Second biggest loser of the day. :)

Regards,
Ed.

Doug,

Yeah it seems that the Fed Deep well has achieved its objective and Art has hinted at that in the interview. This well was an exploration into the Dakota and Frontier at this location (although with oil updip and downdip as confirmed in the interview it was loosely appraisal). So it did what it set out to do and confirm a new oil field below the BFU in the significant potential deeper reservoirs.

As Art said though its maybe not the deepest formation that gets completed in this well, imo its likely the Upper and Lower Shannon that's going to be completed as that will benefit from the miscible flood on the western part of the BFU. To get those 5 figure net flow rates we'll need numerous horizontal wells into the Frontier and Dakota imo, but good things come to those who wait. We should get some operational updates between now and the next Q for the CC workovers and this current well test as well as the increasing volumes of oil produced. I would also like to see an RNS stating that the infrastructure has been upgraded as that allows the rapid production incline to continue.

Regards,
Ed.

You think anyone posting here that's remotely positive is likely working for the warrant sellers? I thought you weren't into conspiracy theories. Seen any UFO's lately? They must employ a lot of people then I guess? Its not like the company put out an announcement that outperformed everyone's expectations by miles. Also the fact that production is flying up is largely irrelevant too I guess, what use is that to an oil and gas production company? They better find a use for it pretty quickly as they'll have a lot of it to shift by year end! :)

You are slightly correct though, some of us do hold a lot of this stock. Exciting times for sure.

Regards,
Ed.