Member Info for Edgein

Don't worry I'm not getting carried away! :) It was said tongue in cheek. COPL at the current suspension price is capped around £60m for 31mmboe of mainly light oil. At the acquisition price of $39/bbl it was valued at $185m for the 2P, since then the oil price has almost doubled, so COPL for Atomic alone is worth much much more than the mere £60m. We've yet to see the impact of the enhanced miscible flood as they've only projected the lower injection rates. Moreover there's lots of horizontal wells to be drilled after the reactivation of Cole Creek so the upside on these assets are laid out in the brokers notes on the Cuda website. Then there is the issue of Cuda itself that needs addressed too, that will be covered in the JOA between Atomic/COPL and Cuda. So upside a plenty from these assets alone, enough to justify much more than the current suspension price imo.

Then the elephant in the room is 226, I'd expect the deep water section of 226 will likely be relinquished as a result of any extension, not that it matters much as the seismic is all on the shelf and hence are all the identified compartments of the Noa discovery. Likely a company making asset in its own right even at 15%, 226 being the reson I entered COPL in the first place.

Then the unknown asset that AM is looking at, the west African EOR, location yet to be revealed, again apparently similar in ways to Atomic but should come much cheaper as its a mature asset that's no longer in production, therefore any associated reserves would be 2C, contingent on gas injection. Add that altogether and it suggests a market value and relist price well above the current. I'm a long way from being disappointed already as my average is around 0.09p. :) I just hope that Art is currently out brushing off the launch pad.

Regards,
Ed.

First we have Richard Branson, then we have Jeff Bezos, I guess closely to follow will be COPL.

Regards,
Ed.

That sounds like a very sad tale indeed, poor chap mustn't have much left after all that topping up!

$15m funding sounds intriguing, as CERP suggested that field development for Saffron would be $3m (see page 12 of the link Bohemia previously posted) I guess both CERP and CEG planned to get that from incremental production. but it didn't specifically say whether that would be from MC or LC or both.

Regards,
Ed.

Ah I see now it was beyond the 3500ft point to secure the mobile shales at 3630ft-3770ft, buy setting casing to 4100ft approx. I had forgotten about that little addition. Good stuff that the drill team were paying such good care and attention to the job of securing these from the main pay zones.

Regards,
Ed.

I don't remember seeing anything in the RNS releases to date that they changed the well design for "an unplanned intermediate casing". In fact none of the news releases seem to mention the number of casing points in the well plan. They would have been well aware of the shear or alteration zone between 3000ft and 3500ft from the information gathered from Saff-1. I would imagine that the well design and setting of the various casing points would have been determined pre-drill. So where did the information come from that the well design was changed? Perhaps I missed it in one of the recent RNS releases can you provide the date of the release in question?

Regards,
Ed

I guess some of the pressure from the shear zone encountered in Saff-1 and Saff-2 could be a result of the vicinity of the South American Plate.

Https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Map-of-principal-present-day-structural-elements-of-Trinidad-based-upon-extensive_fig6_260386456

Regards,
Ed.

The NAV of the Atomic asset will be well above $300m at the current WTI price so I wouldn't like to try to guess a price on relist. That doesn't include any value for 226 or the future potential (acquisitions that Art hinted at). Lots of activity planned upon relist too, such as reactivation of Cole Creek and horizontal drilling etc.

Regards,
Ed.

No Joey,

COPL are showing a large profit in my ISA as my average is just above 0.09p and they suspended at 0.38p. I agree though that it doesn't mean a lot right now as they're likely to gap up on relist to the main market. Then it'll mean a lot more. I'll still be holding for FFD of the Atomic assets, 226 and the West African EOR project, I've no intention of selling any at the start of this journey. Maybe you will be able to buy back in again at some point, but who knows you'll probably still be watching then.

Regards,
Ed.

Saff-1 was spudded late October and it took to mid April for them to announce these as two discoveries for a well estimated to take 30-45 days by old Kooty. It took CEG just 6 weeks to complete Saff-2 as a result of what they learned from the drilling of Saff-1. Of course understanding the lithology and how to control the swelling shales has made a big impact on the timing of this well. So largely to date it has been a success with over 200ft identified in the MC and LC apparently matching CERP's 300ft of net sands (according to Kooty Saff-1).

Regards,
Ed.

Oh yes that's right it was the logging that couldn't be completed in the open hole and they had to do the cased hole logging.

Regards,
Ed.

What do you call a share price move from 0.035p to 0.38p and why is my COPL showing circa 300% profit in my porty then if it doesn't rise? :)

Regards,
Ed.

Well done to the CEG team in that they were able to get this well drilled to depth and cased to TD. CERP were unable to case off the LC and most likely most of those shales and had to test the LC open hole. So very good to see the first Saff well completed to depth. Old Kooty did talk about drilling these wells in batches of 5, so that's 1 to two batches of wells according to CEG's future development plan of 5-9 wells before year end. It will be the flow rates obtained that will dictate this plan now. Hopefully they'll get a stable flow from both the MC and LC. But to match CEG on terms of oil and gas shows through the LC is very positive. Electric logging results in about 1 week, mud logs for the LC sound positive though to date.

The drilling of those wells in batches would certainly take the well cost down especially when they get the well design right as they seem to have with Saff-2. Its taken a fraction of the time to drill and case this well vs Saff-1. Fingers crossed that they get good flow rates on test and get on to those debt providers for the next 5 wells. Separator and sales tanks in after the flow test (if its good) fingers crossed.

Regards,
Ed.

Joey,

Be very careful what you say on a BB. COPL raised significant sums of money before suspension, way more than was needed to inject into Atomic. Most of the acquisition cost of Atomic came from the $45m facility. So to say that COPL haven't got the money for these fees is totally inaccurate and misleading. Moreover COPL became operator and had an effective date on the acquisition back from 1st Dec and the oil price has steadily risen since. So as well as the funds raised there's been healthy cash flow during this time. We're also soon to find out the impact of the increased gas injection and also the fate of Cuda. End of July could be a very interesting time for both COPL and Cuda oil and gas. I'd expect most or all of the warrants and perhaps some of the options to be exercised to clear the way for the consolidation.

Regards,
Ed.

Tiburn,

Its also interesting that CERP perforated 217ft of the MC, yet for the entire UC and MC CEG have identified 200ft in total. CERP were unable to test the lower MC, i.e. not all of the MC. That may account for at least some of the high water cut that CERP got from the MC. It sounds like from the areas of the MC that CERP tested they perforated much more than the actual net pay by doing that with 217ft. It'll be interesting to see the flow rates of the well are when accurately perforated. Also interesting to note that CERP suggested only dry oil in the samples taken from the LC below that thick shale zone.

If things go well for the completion of the well and they're not quite there yet, old Kooty suggested circa 500k per MC development well and around $2m per LC dev well. He also suggested that $3m would be required for a FFD. If Saff-2 is successful there will be lots of one off costs like separator, sales tanks etc and a multi well campaign would also cut mob costs. Also Kooty wouldn't have factored in $70/bbl oil prices either. So Saff-2 is a rather important well for CEG for sure. Perhaps their first ever new field development, interesting week next week for sure. Its certainly not for widows or orphans, but CEG could be a developer company soon.

Regards,
Ed.

Wot,

Absolutely, it took months for CERP to get this far down Saff-1. CEG have done that in around a month. The high pressure and swelling shales were a big problem that CERP faced. Now that an intermediate casing string has been set just above the primary this stops the shales above being an issue. They can now drill the primary with relatively normal balance again rather than upping the mud weight to counter the shales. So to get the casing set is a big plus. Hopefully they'll be able to get an accurate open hole log of the LC, something that CERP were unable to do. CERP couldn't log or test the MC or LC properly in Saff-1. Not long to wait now, just about 500ft to go and fingers crossed next week will bring more good news of TD and pay in the primary, fingers crossed.

Regards,
Ed.

S-1 wasn't properly logged in the first place. they had to run a cased hole log which gave them vague results at best:

"the middle section, to intersect and assess deeper Middle Cruse sands (these being zones previously intersected in the Saffron-1 well, encountering hydrocarbons, but which were not able to be logged and produced from the Saffron-1 well), and

-- the lower section, to intersect and assess the previously unproduced Lower Cruse sands (as with the middle section, these zones were intersected in the Saffron-1 well but were not able to be logged and produced from the Saffron-1 well). "

I don't see what's so surprising about having a casing point in sandstone, its certainly better than having it in a mobile swelling shale that's for sure. Neither the MC nor LC were properly logged or tested therefore it was pretty much guess work what they needed to perforate. So it'll be interesting to see if CEG have isolated the oil zones from the water. But in the mean time it seems it won't stop the guessers guessing. For holders it'll be interesting to see what the logs show for the LC between 3850 and 4500ft.

Regards,
Ed.

LLL,

Yes highly relevant to look back at the RNS releases and also the youtube clip of Kooty gushing about Saff-1 from 27th April 2020. He did say there was high pressure down there and showed the well trying to produce through a column of drill fluid. He did mention that there was a troublesome area at around 3500ft. CEG has mentioned that the oil based fluid that they're using did get past the swelling shales around the middle Cruse, now at 3800ft current depth they're now through Kooty's problem area at 3500ft and drilling ahead towards the primary LC. So thing much as expected for a well drilled right beside the Saff-1 Disvoery.

Should be an interesting update around the 23rd if they also twin what CERP discovered in the LC. The fact that they're past the 3500ft zone is a relief for sure, the highest risk for me wasn't whether they'd find oil under pressure its more than they could get tech/mech issues with those shales. Seems like the well plan was the right one so far. fingers crossed for a TD and logged and cased LC next week.

Regards,
Ed.

Good afternoon OM,

Very good post. Very true Kooty had the seismic for their licences and that modern aerograv survey for all of their fields so he was able to identify prospects and leads and the large target under Goudron. But that is a side issue at present. Focus is now clearly on their licences in the SWP, first of all Saff and then possibly follow on others. I agree though that if Saff-2 is successful, next should be deve wells not randomly drilling expo holes like some others onshore T&T.

Regards,
Ed.

Charlie,

100% agreed. I reckon we won't hear about west African EOR or others until they're like Atomiic, past the point of no return. I too am expecting a comprehensive update on or around their return. He's not the type to RNS to appease shareholders, he'll just report news as and when he has to. Also interesting in that little reminder interview that Shaa posted, Art said the prospectus was pretty much done, that was back in March. Audit slowing things a little, hopefully those pesky auditors will be finished soon.

Regards,
Ed.

Linton,

Old kooty ran off just before the P-1 result, not before the S-2 result. Looks like he was perfectly correct to do so as it was a very high risk frontier exploration well. How about you did you run away before that too?

Regards,
Ed.