Member Info for Edgein

Personally I would have amended point three of the CAG demands

"Sufficient working capital sourced to restart gas injections at the BFSU."

Should have read maximize gas injections back to previous peak levels as set out in the July operations update. It clearly stated the relationship between oil production and gas injection rates. Something that was completely ignored from July 23 to December 23.

"The Company reduced miscible injection volumes and miscible concentration in March 2022 to manage the field's operating pressures at certain facilities and well sites. Oil production from the BFSU is a function of injection volumes. It is the Company's intention to resume injection volumes to a level to return to its previous oil production peak in late 2021/early 2022 before injection volume reduction."

"With the required upgrades to our field gas gathering system nearing completion, we are focusing our attention on a revised injection strategy to return the field to its designed depletion strategy which should result in a return to the previous production peak and an increasing production profile."

They were funded during this time of low US gas prices to get the injection rates back up and yet failed to do so, that was a complete operational failure by those responsible when they knew exactly what they had to do. Money needs to be raised not just to restart gas injection, but return it to previous peak levels as laid out by the company in July.

Regards,

Ed.

Nige,

Hard question, it depends on how he intends to fund the future acquisitions and their scale. Now that they know there is no spending commitment for KON-15 as they're not a winning bidder. That means our currently only spending commitment is Tobias (perhaps 25% seismic and Galinda well costs later in the year). Spend in Australia is likely to be marginal. Incoming would be funds from Australia and we're most of those £10m convertible notes yet undrawn. My guess is that the loan notes will be used for the EPS. So pretty uniquely funded at the moment for a £16m cap company.

If a new asset came with 2P reserves that opens the possibility of RBL, as would establishing a 2P on Tobias. They may also wait for the EPS and buy from cash flow, as that may yet turn out to be substantial. Although that could also lead to multiple sidetrack or horizontal wells (We've yet to get EPS rates let alone full development plan for Tobias). So further acquisitions could be linked to the scale of Tobias, they could hopefully, fingers crossed, have their hands full developing Tobias over the next two years (AET even mentioned the redevelopment in their recent onshore bid round RNS). Acquisitions are planned according to CRCL but it will be interesting to see their quantum and timing as CRCL has already a lot going on.

Joe,

Look at other rivals and what they're valued at, AXL, ZPHR, EDR (it may have been bought out now), etc etc. None of those companies that I mention there have assets on the scale of Tobias, its a large field, 3400 acres. So on strong flow rates I'd expect us to perhaps go to £30-50m. If Tobias turns out as large as we hope it will (11.7mmbbls+ net) then we may move towards mid cap (we could be looking at net 20mmbbls+ for the two fields). Tobias and Galinda with modern drilling could get us well on our way, look at AET's cap for example they're now within touching distance of £100m. Tobias and Galinda and perhaps one more discovery, who knows, lets wait and see just how big Tobias is.

Regards,

Ed.

Good morning Nige,

Good man, yeah it sure has been windy! MY garden had a few branches down, next door's fence has seen better days though! It sure was the worst storm in quite a while.

I would imagine so, all these expected news items are still pending from Tobias, sale of assets and Australian assays.

Duys and gals.

Interesting that it was Align again holding us back in early Jan, hopefully they'll get shifted soon as we head towards fair value.

Regards,

Ed.

Hi Nige,

I'm good, hope you are too!

BMA have 45 days from the GM on the 8th of December, that would now appear to be working days rather than calendar days. So I guess they've up to around the 8th or 9th of Feb or something like that to legally pre-empt the offer from IBM.

Regards,

Ed.

Guys,

I agree its looking like very thin volumes of profit takers still remain. Total volume of mixed trading is still only 1.7m, that's pretty light and the mm's aren't getting many in off the back of that. News will come when its ready and that should set us off on the next leg, market cap is currently around £16m. Tobias won't need to be very big to justify that, but drilling indications so far suggests there's much more to come when you read the results of TO-13 and TO-14 to date.

Regards,

Ed.

Morning Nige,

I sure did have a good one, hope you did too!

Not 100% sure it depends on what the below statement means:

"being available to interested companies and that have been qualified as Associates of the National Concessionaire"

If CRCL have been qualified as Associates of the National Concessionaire, who knows. Winning an interest in the block would have been nice but hopefully it'll not become a distraction to what is currently going on. Art's post shows what has been going on and its a lot more important that winning a small interest in another exploration block.

Regards,

Ed.

Art yes it seems so. I agree, I doubt anyone has bought here for KON-15 given what is currently going on at KON-11. Tobias is still certainly the main event here. We have those three blocks of roughly equal size, they are bigger than KON-15. There were a few mapped plays that may extend from KON-11 into KON-15 but we still have those on KON-11. The current 16mmbbls of contingent and 297mmbbls of prospective gives CRCL plenty to be getting on with.

We've not been given guidance of how long it will take to test TO-13 and TO-14, just that they were beginning clean up and testing from the RNS on the 28th Dec.

Regards,

Ed.

Good morning guys,

Yeah its a little unfortunate that they split KON-15 between just two companies so far. As others have said CRCL have their hands pretty full with KON-112, KON-12 and KON-16 anyway. There were a lot of companies that didn't win an interest. Roll on the test results of Tobias.

Bid round results as posted by rod from ADVFN (SRSP)

https://anpg.co.ao/noticias/licitacao-2023-resultado-do-concurso-publico/

"However, for Block KON 15 with unsatisfactory proposals, the company Sonangol was classified as Operator with a participatory interest of 40%, and the company Afentra as Non Operator with 45%, being available to interested companies and that have been qualified as Associates of the National Concessionaire in this contest, 15% of participatory interest in the block."

Regards,

Ed.

Confounded,

I reckon you've hit the nail on the head with that one. I also believe that the redevelopment of Tobias has been perfectly timed to coincide with the 2023 bid round. Sonangol proved to everyone how important this project is when they got the minister to attend the spudding of TO-13, that's not a common thing to do.

Indeed, the trading was fairly mixed too with some more chunky late reported buys etc. MMs have been running short of stock for days before Friday. Very true, the future of CRCL isn't currently relying on the winning of an interest of KON-15, but is certainly based on the redevelopment of the oilfields and exploration of that 297mmbbls of prospective. Also the sale of the mining assets couldn't be better timed with the preparations for the EPS.

Its only a matter of time until we get the flow tests for TO-13 and TO-14, whether that happens next week when the results of the bid round are due, lets see, would love it if it does. I agree we are definitely in a news rich period with lots more to come from Tobias results, sale of the mining assets, assays from Australia and the possible addition of more blocks in Angola. Market cap not even £20m. I also keep thinking of the statement, succeed where others have failed for some reason too. :)

Regards,

Ed.

RL,

Thanks for confirming to me that you're a trader something that I had expected. I have said that my background is research and have more than 30 years experience in investing in oil and gas and mining stocks. I've just posted a little proof of that on the ADVFN wibble thread, you can check my profile if you wish, you'll see how long I've been posting on ADVFN and what my investment style is. I posted on iii before that in the 1990s (not sure if they still have a bb though). Like I said my experience comes from investing in literally hundreds of oil and gas an mining stocks over the years and talking to many CEO's as well as lots and lots of research. I do cut and paste links at times, so yeah you are right there I suppose.

I hope you're as lucky in the future as you have been here, although time may well tell that you left far too early rather than wait for Tobias development and beyond. Mr Karam is apparently still looking at further additions. My advice to you for your future punts is research, research, research.

Regards,

Ed.

RL,

LOL on the 15th you insinuated that I worked for the company and was posting too much, today you're insinuating I'm not posting enough. Seems you're a little hard to please. I did say that I try to limit my time on social media, I guess you missed that post.

Some of the little traders have sold out, you can find them on the wibble thread and the other thread on ADVFN for example, and I'm sure they're posting similar elsewhere. The share price has up to this point almost moved in a straight line and the first real down day a lot go into panic mode. But then others that are here who have a longer term outlook than the immediate chart are quite relaxed as nothing has changed. Could get news at the start of the week on Mambare and KON-15. Lets see. Hopefully this board will return to the way it was once the traders have moved on.

Regards,

Ed.

Good morning Sienna,

We've been over looked for a long time now. I would still say most oil investors won't know we're an oil and gas company yet. But I've started to see CRCL get mentioned on other boards, such as SRSP thread on ADVFN and I bet it gets the odd mention on the AET thread too. So word is starting to get out there. We sure are rising on anticipation of sale of the mining assets and mainly on the upcoming results of Tobias. Cap is still small though, its only £20m at the moment so could gain more momentum yet. Won't take high flow rates to justify this current cap, I'd say 500-1000bopd net would do it. Results have very good so far, hopefully the flow rates will support a much higher cap. Look at AET for example, with their debt their enterprise value is many times ours. Lets see what happens near term. With our assets and funding position (undrawn notes and sale of mining assets), I don't see these as fairly valued yet.

Regards,

Ed.

Calder,

I personally can't see it. I reckon it will be Sonangol with operatorship of KON-15 and I'm hoping that CRCL land 10-20% as NOP. Given the list of companies in for it there's likely to be multiple winners. Either way we'll know very soon with results of the bidding round estimated for Monday.

Regards,

Ed.

Guys and gals,

As for the loan notes, they were put in place when the share price was just 0.4p. Only a small portion of that £10m has been drawn to date and some of those have already been converted (£250k). But that allowed the company to participate in these two wells, so money very well spent from the looks of it.

Regards,

Ed.

Layla,

Sure if it helps cover their share of well costs then its certainly positive for them.

Regards,

Ed.

If New Age/Tower manage a successful farm-out in South Africa it will be cat among the pigeons here, scramble for shares would be immense especially if its one of the big guys.

Regards,

Ed.

DC,

Well I bet that is what Sonangol and CRCL are hoping for. The re-equilibrium comments are interesting for sure, as it does hint at pressure returning to pre-production levels. Is it possible that there's more than 65mmbbls unproduced, from the recent results I'd imagine so. Could it be that the 29mmbbls have migrated back into the field, early drill results suggest it may have happened, with the recharge, pressure and re-equilibrium comments its a possibility. More wells could prove or disprove that though, if they keep finding dry oil and no water it would be looking good. A new CPR would make for interesting reading.

Layla,

BOIL are not a company that I follow closely, from memory they do have an interesting exploration target in the NS and an appraisal gas asset in SE asia. I've not looked at them in months though, are they funded or farmed out that gas asset yet?

Regards,

Ed.

Hi TN,

I would say you are partially correct. Carbonate reservoirs have pretty much no matrix porosity unless they're inter-bedded with sandstone, clays, shales etc. They are relying on fracture porosity for their porosity and permeability. Sandstones can have world class matrix porosity (40%+) and multi darcy permeability like you would find in the North Sea for example, some of those old fields may still be recharging too due to oil migration pathways and oil gas and water would move easily depending on their phase etc.

You are correct in saying though that because Tobias is highly naturally fractured that it would aid oil migration into the reservoir and also its ability to store greater volumes. Yes the high porosity values for the limestone (up to 14%) could allow the oil to move up and water to move down the structure. Could well explain why there is no water in a well offsetting a well that watered out. Also where did the water from the pressure support well go?

So to summarise, I wouldn't say that Tobias' limestone reservoir is better than a sandstone for oil migration, but it seems to have done the trick with re-charge, pressure and lack of water and that's what we want to be reading at this stage ahead of the flow test results. We'll know in due course just how good these flow tests are given what has been released to date. Perhaps after enough wells we'll find out where the water went and how the reservoir has seemingly recharged oil and pressure.

Regards,

Ed.

Good morning guys and gals,

Breq,

They will manage all wells carefully, they cannot over produce wells as that can lead to reservoir damage. What they will be interested in this time though, with oil around three times the price of what it was from 1960-1990, is ultimate recovery and getting out as much as possible. I reckon Angola wants to get their production up from 1mmbbls per day back to at least 2mmbbls/d (will take more than Tobias of course). They're now keen on getting that significant remaining hydrocarbons out and can now use horizontal wells to do so. So I would imagine there would be a peak and decline period like all other fields. After Tobias get finally shut in could they come back many years in the future and try again, perhaps. There could be huge volumes of source rock down there with high total organic content.

How long did it take for the field to recharge and regain pressure, reach re-equilibrium? That's a question that I'm sure everyone would be keen to find out. Perhaps they'll get a better idea once the field is fully developed. It may take wells on the block to go pre-salt though and perhaps drill into the possible source to find out what temperature, pressure and TOC it has. There are pre-salt targets on KON-11.

Sienna,

My background is research, so many years reading about oil and gas and mining. Plus talking to many CEOs, if you ask the right questions you can get relevant non-sensitive information. I try to spend as little time as I can these days online so not on very much social media and that is the reason I didn't join Telegram either.

Regards,

Ed.

It sure could. I had to pay over for a small top up, my broker told me there was only 1m available at 0.021.

Regards,

Ed.