Member Info for Edgein

Hi Nige,

Yes Opex and Capex both would be significantly less for an onshore development. We'll have wellhead and pipe maintenance and transport costs, but that would be small in comparison to platform costs, they may even have an FPSO for production (not looked at their new assets closely). FPSO lease costs are very high. But then that can be offset by scale. But even pipe cleaning offshore can be a time consuming and costly exercise, often resulting in total field shutin temporarily.

Tobias is currently believed to have significant remaining hydrocarbons in place so it could be of offshore size, onshore, its already large given the 65mmbbls expected contingent, it may be larger than that. Devex also like chalk and cheese too. We just need flow lines and sales tanks etc if productive, drilling costs a fraction when drilling onshore. If all goes to plan here and we get around to drilling horizontal wells we could be rivaling AET in the next year or two. That's what I'm hoping for.

Regards,

Ed.

RL,

I guess Dicko took offense to you suggesting his post was fancy. It does contain a lot of facts about the sale of the assets and how that relates to our current cap. Most of our cap is covered by the sale of the legacy assets at Mambare and Wowogap. You could possibly also argue that the rest of the cap covers Mt Weld and Canegrass. That currently wouldn't leave much in the price for Angola then! Many Australian lithium explorers would be valued much higher than £2.6m!

While I agree on Dicko's valuation on our contingent value at present, that could change dramatically as he suggest if converted to reserves. Not sure that I would value African 2P at $10/bbl though, $5-6/bbl more likely. We also have yet to see what the implications of a greater oil column downdip of the previous wells does to the OIP for this very large structure. Also I cannot see cost oil for a large onshore field being as high as 50%, bonny light prices are closer to that of Brent rather than WTI etc. So we can all have differing views, but most of his views are based on facts.

What price? Well lets see what the wells do, then see what the market does. Lets see the forward plan and the analysis of the well data and how that impacts on OIP from these modern wells. Take it from there. Look at all the other little oil and gas companies with much lesser assets and more importantly much weaker finances and take it from there (we've a £10m facility convertible at almost twice the price 0.8p). So even on that basis we should trade at a premium to other little oil and gas companies struggling for cash. Mr Karam pointed out we are quite unique. Hard to put a price on it until we know the size of Tobias and what the well results are, but I'm locked and loaded and ready to find out.

Regards,

Ed.

Hi Nige,

Not sure, they may announce on TD or they may test both wells first. Gut felling is they'll announce on TD after logs with a forward plan on testing and possible future ops. They may release the rig for a smaller completion rig, fingers crossed. We'll see in the near term.

Regards,

Ed.

Hi Nige,

Well they're the small private company we picked up 90% of for an absolute song. They do now own around 17% of CRCL shares from memory so should do quite well from those. From that holding they'll likely appoint a board member, possibly before year end, our current Angolan MD is former APEX. I don't think there will be anything else to find out now that we own 90% of them. There probably are a few more companies called APEX out there.

Regards,

Ed.

This is the statement from the results that I'm referring to:

"Rounding out the Company's transformation have been several board changes, some of which were in progress at the time of writing and are expected to conclude by the end of 2023."

Regards,

Ed.

Or before year end at least.

Regards,

Ed.

Hi Nige,

Yeah I think some of the Apex guys were to join the board before Christmas, perhaps we'll get an announcement to coincide with the AGM tomorrow. Lets see.

Regards,

Ed.

Silversprings,

I have no idea how this is going to play out as the management seem to have left the field early. According to the company interested parties have been lining up so there is absolutely no guarantee that a secured lender would get either BFU or the large discovery. That would be down to the administrators to take the best offer if it comes to that. But we're getting the bare basics from the company. Like how much is the default in the liquidity covenants, basics on the JV. They cannot refinance 40.5mmbbls of independently verified reserves at $75+, they need to get their act together sharpish and get that injection rate back to where it was. Some leadership along the way would be nice, an unexpected bonus.

Regards,

Ed.

Chitta,

I made a mistake here, I got my information from the RNS releases and interviews! RBL was coming last year/this year, restricted production on the gas flaring, on the GGS upgrade etc etc. But look they've defaulted before only this time Anavio is in deeper and still unsecured. Will they or someone else step up to the plate this time? We'll know in a few weeks. Saving grace is that the company have a large NI51-101 to help dig them out of the hole of their own making. Some information from the company would be useful too, like why is it taking so long to get the injection rates back to where they were? That would be s good starting point.

Regards,

Ed.

Leew,

If a company like ANGS can get that sort of deal then you'd think our lot if they had any management or finance skills between the lot of them would be working very hard over the next three weeks to sort out their own mess. One or both of these parties need removed from this equation. Time for our illustrious leader to come out of defence again and go up front as our main striker has left the pitch for some reason, put the ball in the wrong net? Trafigura will be in the little black book from the Nigerian days.

Regards,

Ed.

FF,

Right up until yesterday you could have said the very same thing about ANGS and they don't have much in the way of reserves to RBL! There are two main opposing parties here going head to head, both with large quantities on the line and it will be interesting to see which one gives way first. This isn't the first time COPL defaulted on SL.

Regards,

Ed.

Guys,

Market is still sleepwalking where CRCL is concerned:

"Progress on the ground in Angola has come quickly after the reporting period year end, with initial drilling on TO-13, the first Well having concluded, and the rig now having moved and spudded TO-14 at a second location. The Company is very pleased with the results of the first well, which despite being drilled downdip encountered the full 120m horizon of the Binga targeted, with oil shows and multiple potential production horizons throughout. The Company and the block consortium as a whole, led by the Angolan State Oil Company, Sonangol, believe that these early results point towards significant hydrocarbon potential remaining and dictate a move towards an early production system at the field, targeting first oil during the course of 2024. This will clearly be an important milestone for the company."

Hopefully be lots of tea spitting opportunities in the coming weeks. As a matter of interest, given what was talked about earlier, we have a potential bowl on the chart to 2 pence back in March 2022. Just a note of interest to the chartists/tea leaf readers out there. :)

Regards,.

Ed.

DR,

Personally I would class a micro cap as a company with less than £10m cap, small cap up to £100m, £100m- several billion mid caps and above that the large companies and majors etc. Personally I wouldn't class I3E with around 22kboepd and 182mmboe as a small cap, circa £120m.

Regards,

Ed.

RL,

My market cap target is £100m+, I3E for example £120m. I think some have posted on here that Mr Karam wants a several hundred million market cap, but that's just from what I've read rather than got that from the horses mouth. Not a question that I've asked as its kinda hard to judge as the guy only started months ago, If next year is as good as the last 6 months who knows where we'll end up. Exciting for sure.

Regards,

Ed.

Nige,

Well you pretty much answered your own question in your last message! I would personally use two current case examples.

1. AET came from nothing (they do have experienced management too) but are heading for mid cap from acquisition of offshore Angolan production, I don't hold those currently.

2. SRSP delisted has acquired assets in Nigeria, Tunisia and Angola, Angolan interests come with circa 10,000bopd (Angola still to complete). But recent AGM reports suggested a relist between 3-6p being targeted, so a mid cap vs their £20m basket case before delist (I do hold some of those).

So with those two cases and the fact that there could now be significant hydrocarbon potential remaining in Tobias we are well positioned to grow organically through development and always have the possibility to expand on that with debt based RBL to acquire production. Believe me if SRSP can do it anyone can!

Regards,

Ed.

Nige,

I agree. He seems very professional in his replies, staying within the rules of what he can and cannot say. Believe me I've tried to squeeze what I can get from the questions I've asked so far. :) I'm really looking forward to the update on forward plan post drilling TO-14. He does come across as very confident in the RNS releases and emails etc

I did ask about the implications of the larger oil column downdip etc, he did give a very good summary of that in results as there is only so much he can put out there as an NOP.

I have a 3-5 year outlook here and I believe we could see mid cap status from our current blocks. Establishing a base production from Tobias and Galinda would play a major part of that. There's also other undeveloped discoveries onshore Angola. So scope for farmin exists, there's very little expo done so far in Kwanza, especially pre-salt, so large potential to grow the company beyond Tobias and Galinda from our current blocks. With more seismic we may be able to get our prospective up beyond the current net 297mmbbls by maturing more targets. Also company has also hinted at further acquisitions in Angola with several under consideration (one of those may be KON-15).

Mr Karam has us very well funded and he's a very successful guy. So I'm locked and loaded waiting fr the next updates and really looking forward to 2024.

Regards,

Ed.

Good morning Nige,

Definitely, 2p next year would be a good base to build on from with the possible development of Tobias, plus potentially additional assets. Certainly my longer term target would be much higher than that.

I don't think that there will be much more said at the AGM compared to the GM as they cannot discuss in detail anything that isn't out in the market. So all depends on whether we get an update in the next two days.

But there's no stopping those attending asking about the possible horizontal wells, are they still a possibility as they were to be pending outcome of TO-13 result? Is the geophysical analysis of TO-13 almost complete? Things that have been put out there by the company etc. Poke the bear and see if it growls etc. :)

Regards,

Ed.

Good morning Sans,

Thanks for posting your summary of the GM. I wouldn't worry too much about DL on this occasion, he's just a shareholder, he's not on the board here so likely to have zero influence on operational decisions. Regardless of what he tweets or whatever its just one shareholder's view. The small turnout still suggests we're not well followed yet, but hopefully have a much greater profile next year.

Very interesting to hear Mr Karam's view on 2p per share, I'd be happy with mid next year for sure. He's still clearly got a very bullish outlook on the EPS and these recent wells! I do agree though with my communication with him so far he seems like a very shrewd clued up guy and has got shareholder interests front and centre. Not really surprising given his personal shareholding and that of his company Extraction SRL.

Hopefully he'll be even more bullish at the AGM on Friday as we're fast approaching the TD of TO-14.

Regards,

Ed.

Good morning Nige,

Due to the quantities of money involved and type of activities etc there won't be any holiday down time. They cannot leave sections of the hole open for any longer than necessary. Angola is majority Christian so they will celebrate Christmas, maybe they'll put some tinsel on the rig (joking). :) But that's about it. They'll do crew shifts etc but they will operate 24/7.

Regards,

Ed.

RL,

It all depends on what your outlook on soon is. If soon means end of January then there should be update on management appointments, Mt Weld test results, TO-13 and TO-14 (analysis and testing), application for KON-15 outcome. Assays to come on the rock chips from Canegrass too, but looks like we're gonna have to wait for the lab results now rather than early expo results from the field work, so hopefully early to mid Q1 for those results. So plenty of news to come soon imo.

Regards,

Ed.