Member Info for Edgein

Hi Nige,

You're welcome. I was thinking about that again since this was previously discussed on here. The 45 day period may be working days, its not quite clear from the RNS so that puts it from anywhere between 22nd Jan to about the 9th Feb. So if we haven't had an RNS suggesting a $4.1m eqv offer from BMA by the 9th Feb we should be clear to proceed. Would they leave an offer to the last day though? You would think if they were really keen to get the counter offer in they'd do it asap, they know what it will cost them.

Regards,

Ed.

Good morning Nige,

"16 October 2023

Corcel Plc (London AIM: CRCL), the Angolan focused exploration and production company, announces that it has received a revised offer from Integrated Battery Metals ("IBM") to purchase the Company's 41% interest in the Mambare nickel/cobalt project. "

BMA have 45 days from the GM, the time of shareholder approval to preempt the current offer on Mambare, that means they have to match the existing offer for Mambare. Failure to do so within the legal time frame means that the company can proceed to complete the sale with IBM. If BMA match the offer on the table they would get first dibs at completing the sale to them instead. Either way it looks like its getting sold on the terms agreed.

Regards,

Ed.

Mr JS,

Yeah not the one we've been waiting for, when I saw the 1 appear beside CRCL on my monitor I thought here we go, but not yet. They've now been cleaning up/testing TO-14 for almost two weeks now, how time flies. Thought it may also be a pre-emptive offer from BMA, perhaps they're going to run it to wire or let IBM have it.

Regards,

Ed.

Nige,

There sure could be much more to come yet.

"The encouraging results of the TO-14 well constitute a significant milestone toward development of an EPS and providing line of sight to near-term revenue generation for Corcel."

"The initial results of the TO-13 well are an important moment for Corcel and highly encouraging, having successfully demonstrated hydrocarbons across multiple potentially productive zones and multiple intervals. TO-13 looks to cornerstone development of a future EPS and provides Corcel with line of sight to near-term revenue generation"

All sounds very promising. The company has also mentioned several times about the significant hydrocarbons remaining and the TO-14 result RNS was very positive, especially no water in the well offsetting TO-4. So yeah it does sound like there's a lot of oil remaining in this field and the company are emphasising their belief of the importance of these two wells for the EPS and early revenue generation.

Agreed Nige, great job by Mr Karam et al to get our hands on these blocks in Angola, potential company makers at present. I'm also looking forward to this next couple of weeks and what lies beyond that.

Regards,

Ed.

Nige,

Yes that is a real possibility as I cannot see the model for Tobias to have included a recharge of the reservoir, re-equilibrium, oil shows throughout and no water. All that in the RNS releases to date suggests to me its at least matching or exceeding expectations, especially on the pressure and oil recharge of the reservoir. Previously they've suggested 65mmbbls of yet to be produced oil.

No that's not possible, they cannot get an increased resource or reserve number at this stage and announce that with the test results imo. They may hint that they think there is more oil there than before and flow tests my suggest there is. But this then needs to be independently verified by a reserve audit company based on flow rates over time and well data from a number of wells. They could do that by initiation of a CPR on the field, that would be completed some months after the flow testing imo. We'll likely hear more when the test results come out. But certainly if the wells produce and sustain flow, a reserve upgrade from contingent to 2P would be the next step. That might also require side tracks or further wells, we'll likely hear more in due course. They do have a lot of historic info from this field, so this could all be done quicker than a company that has just made a new discovery that needs appraisal.

It would be interesting to hear if any of the older wells could be re-entered for horizontal production leg(s) etc.

Regards,

Ed.

Good morning Nige,

With the current assets and the sale of the legacy mining assets and the funding position I would say £20-30m looks reasonable right now. Of course that can change rapidly through acquisition or even the flow rates. We have a decent sized prize to go for at the moment, with the modern drilling and 16mmbbls net contingent at Tobias and Galinda there is a solid base to aim for and it might get bigger. If we get strong initial flow rates from these wells we may then be valued on times cash flow. A lot of investors use x3 NOI for example, so technically we could go to over $100m cap on top end flow rates from these two wells.

Our closest rival at the moment in terms of scale is AET. We've the potential to catch up to them on production and reserves (hopefully), and potentially pass them with future drilling of the prospective resources. Given the information to date we may have more oil than first expected from Tobias, I couldn't have imagined that the pre-drill model included no water in TO-14. So I've my fingers crossed for a resource upgrade for Tobias, pending flow test results of course. The companies have yet to determine just how much oil will be recoverable through modern drilling, Tobias could get really big really quickly depending on the flow results of these two wells. They know it already covers 3400 acres, its a large area if there are significant hydrocarbons remaining. All of the information released to date will have been approved by Sonangol.

Getting strong early cash flow will enable them to develop Tobias and then look at some of these other large leads they have on KON-11, KON-12 and KON-16. The company has said numerous times its looking to build on these blocks through further acquisitions in Angola. So exciting times ahead and I'm still looking forward to see these at mid-cap at some point.

Regards,

Ed.

Hi Nige,

I sure did, hope you had a good one too!

Well I think we are building a name in Angola while helping to bring production back to Kwanza. This field produced 29mmbbls over a period of around 30 years, developed in the 60's and 70's and shut in from the 1990's throughout that time oil was around 1/2 the price it is now. So it will be a big thing to reestablish production from this large field.

We may do, lots of news can hit at any time, looks like we should hear about the bid round next week, also if I'm not mistaken the preemptive offer for Mambare has to be made by mid Jan too.

"Following Corcel shareholder approval, the Company will formally notify BMA of a bonafide offer for its interest, starting a 45-day period in which BMA can legally pre-empt the transaction."

Also Canegrass assays from the November sampling could land any time. So yeah given the potential of news on many fronts £20m looks very reasonable, hopefully after the test results very cheap (fingers crossed).

Regards,

Ed.

Nige,

We might get the odd bonus along the way:

"ANPG will evaluate the bids received, a process which is anticipated to be finalized by 31 December 2023. The results of the onshore tender are expected to be announced by mid-January 2024, following which negotiation with companies will commence. ANPG expects negotiations to be complete by March 2024."

So results from next week onward, fingers crossed for KON-15.

Regards,

Ed.

Affc and Sienna,

You're welcome. Well these boards are a place for shareholders to share their views on their shareholdings, so the more discussion the better.

Aafc, yeah I agree, that is a very positive statement from CRCL. REservoir quality is clearly high for this limestone reservoir with the high natural fractures and porosity mentioned, all bodes well for flow potential, as does the recharging of reservoir pressure and presence of mobile oil. they've basically ticked all the boxes you would want to see ticked pre-test. Also the similar geology between all wells, recent and historic, and their connectivity bodes well for ultimate recoverable too; leading to the comments on significant hydrocarbons remaining in Tobias.

Regards,

Ed.

Nige,

You're welcome. I agree, we're in good hands with Sonangol running the show. They've been conservative and cautious so far for sure. Took around 60 days to do around 948m and around 45 days on the well at just over 700m, so slow and steady wins the race on this occasion. I too hope we're building up to a significant RNS re-Tobias, we're heading for a few, might even get Canegrass assays popped out too.

Regards,

Ed.

Hi Nige,

I've spent the afternoon rereading the previous announcements on TO-13 and TO-14. They have multiple possible pay zones within multiple intervals in both wells. So they may either perforate the whole lot or they may isolate some of these zones and carry out individual flow tests. I'd imagine there must be some over-pressure going on down there for a shallow well such as TO-4 to give what are pretty much world class flow rates from an 8m interval. That's like 480bopd per foot of reservoir, that's better than most wells in Kurdistan and they tend to be sandstone. So my guess would be they'll take their time and isolate zones, they'll not want to over produce from any section. But at least if they do get high flow rates it won't come as a surprise given what TO-4 did previously!

So my guess is it could be towards the end of the month for results, but then again they may part release results, they may release on a well by well basis so no counting chickens. With each test zone they'll likely do at least one or two 24-48hr pressure build up tests to see how the reservoir responds to production and and then pressure builds up over a short period shut-in. This could be done on multiple zones etc. They have plenty to test from both wells and then hopefully that will determine the scale of the separators and sales tanks they need for this EPS, before fingers crossed, moving to FFD.

Regards,

Ed.

These*

Steve,

It sure is looking promising when you read this latest statements:

"Overall, the drilling results for the TO-14 well were positive, with oil shows found throughout the Binga reservoir in alignment with the distribution seen in historic production wells in the Tobias field, confirming both moveable fluids and the ability to reactivate production in the field.

Therefore, the consortium is proceeding to testing of the TO-14 and then the TO-13 wells, with the objective of flowing the wells and then moving on to the next phase focused on designing the early production system."

Once they know the flow rates from the "high fractured Oolitic Limestones in the reservoir with good porosity values", we should then be hearing about the next phase as mentioned above.

Regards,

Ed.

Simonskint,

Its all down to trade size. There is an NMS on every share or normal market size and within that the mm's have to deal at or within the displayed spread. Late reporting isn't to do with the settlement time, your trade should always be reported regardless of that. If your trade is however x10 the NMS they can typically delay reporting that for 1-3 hours, sometimes even 1-2 days later. Also they can put trades through the AQSE too so that they don't show on all trading platforms, that's not down to the customer choice but more to do with the market maker that did your trade. Settlement times are more to do with you and your broker rather than the mm's.

Regards,

Ed.

Hi Nige,

Can't say for sure. But I would imagine that you are along the right lines. Probably each company will put in a sealed bid for a certain amount of money/well commitments and possibly seismic over a certain period. The most suitable bidders will be selected. I would imagine that a number of companies will win an interest in KON-15, I've my fingers crossed that CRCL are one of those. Not long to find out.

Regards,

Ed.

Good afternoon Nige,

Thanks very much, happy new year to you too and to the rest of the guys and gals posting. Yeah its interesting that Mr Karam chose to convert some of his loan notes at a premium today. Clearly sees good upside to this level. Yeah its good to see this one so lively as folks continue to buy after the stunning results from TO-14 last week. Yeah lots of news looming over this next couple of weeks, as well as testing TO-13 and TO-14, news on KON-15 bid due middle of the month and should hear more about Mambare sale this month too. Really looking forward to the flow rates of TO-14 in particular!

Regards,

Ed.

Good morning JD,

Yes its positive that Mr Karam has converted a few at a premium to the current share price, he clearly sees good upside from 0.8p conversion price otherwise he could have just held and received the cash plus interest on the notes. Should be lots of news this month.

Regards,

Ed.

Good morning RL,

No not worked in oil and gas, but been an investor in oil and gas for over 30 years and mining stocks for about 25. My background is research based. So I do a lot of reading on what I invest in.

Regards,

Ed.

DC,

That is a possibility that there's lots of oil downdip of even TO-13, and yes it may still be migrating into the very large structure. Its clear that the previous wells have left substantial mobile oil. Oil and gas migrates in phases under normal pressure (we're not talking HT-HP wells and gasification of oil etc). So normal phase would be gas displaces oil and oil displaces water and then you have the oil water contact somewhere down the anticline (if there is one). TO-4 suggests there is one. However we also get mention of at least two compartments, so did only one of these contain oil and water, the other just oil?

So what you can get in a lot of oil fields is a gas cap, followed by an oil column followed by an oil water contact. So if oil is still migrating up the structure under pressure as suggested by the news releases, then yes you would expect to see the oil displace any water. In theory yes the oil and pressure may have built up again to a point where its back to initial oil saturation and pressure for Tobias. But lets wait and see on that. If at the right temp and depth the source rock could still be generating oil too. We'll know more from the testing and any subsequent wells if necessary, things could get real interesting real fast. These are the first two modern wells to be tested on this field, completion, perforation and logging will have moved on considerable since the Petrofina days.

Regards,

Ed.

Confounded,

Yeah for sure its economic for companies to re-enter wells on many occasions, many wells can have behind pipe/undeveloped pay etc. Its an interesting idea for sure.

Regards,

Ed.