Member Info for Edgein

Luke,

Very true, at least now we have a clear timeline to news on Angola and it sounds as if we'll get a test result on TO-14 before they move to TO-13. Also like you say we're likely to get more news in the mean time too, Mambare update must be close now. Hopefully both Wowo gap and Mambare will go to IBM, if BMA can match the Mambare offer then their money will be just as good. Hopefully those sales will complete before the EPS.

Regards,

Ed.

At least that is them underway now and for those of us intending to stay beyond the testing of these wells and for the EPS etc then a couple of weeks is neither here nor there. Going to be an exciting couple of weeks, good to hear they're already preparing TO-13 for testing. Once they have the flow rates then they'll know the scale of the EPS.

Regards,

Ed.

Good morning Mike,

Ah indeed, had forgotten to add the Christmas and New Year holidays into the calc. Yeah looks like it could be right up to next Wednesday then! Be interesting to see if BMA make a move.

Regards,

Ed.

Going to be a high volume day here today! No thanks would prefer to stay here for potential baggers as this one is gonna be an appraisal well.

Regards,

Ed.

Good morning Sienna,

That haven't as yet gave details of these sidetracks mentioned. They could be referring to the 7 previous production wells on the field or they may intend to sidetrack the two current new wells, that is yet to be clarified. If they are going back to sidetrack the older wells then that would obviously mean a very rapid development and cut down the time and money to FFD. Hopefully we'll get more clarification of that in the next RNS re-Angola.

Still no pre-empt from BMA on Mambare and I think their legal time-frame runs out this week if I'm not mistaken (GM approval on the 8th Dec '23). So hopefully an RNS this week or early next and we should know then if IBM are in the clear for both Wowo gap and Mambare acquisitions. That would be very useful cash for the possible EPS.

Regards,

Ed.

Good morning Luke,

When you look at those older documents on the previous bid rounds they show the 2D seismic lines. In the Congo basin they're fairly tightly packed. When you look at Kwanza basin there are far fewer seismic lines taken. They do say in the July 23 presentation they're planning seismic on Blocks KON-12 and KON-16 this year. All three blocks are large and its certainly possible that the seismic lines don't hit all possible leads, so yeah I would agree with that slide, its quite possible that new additional seismic would identify more pre and post-salt targets. That seems like a reasonable assumption. 3D seismic over Tobias and Galinda could be useful too. Good to see that CRCL were present at that conference too.

Regards,

Ed.

Nige,

Fingers crossed. You would imagine so, since the minister attended the spudding of TO-13 I would imagine there would be bells and whistles if the flow rates are good. Could be the first onshore Kwanza basin production in 30 years. I would imagine that rounds of publicity and interviews may follow that.

Regards,

Ed.

Good morning Guys,

Given the time its taken so far I would imagine that we could get an all in one RNS. As the company has pointed out they've multiple intervals with potentially productive zones in each for both wells, so that has the potential to take some time to test, Yes the rig was last on TO-14 and it had oil shows throughout so that's where they'll start. Then the rig move back to TO-13 for clean up and test there too. Fingers crossed the testing will conclude soon and we'll have a better idea on scale and timing of their planned EPS. I'm currently checking in multiple times per day at the moment just in anticipation of this Angolan update. They didn't rush the drilling so not likely to rush the testing either.

Regards,

Ed.

Good morning Nige,

I'm good, hope you are too!

Yes fingers crossed that we'll get an Angolan update soon and yes hopefully it will contain a lot of detail on the forward plan. The last update regarding TO-14 was very detailed and comprehensive as to what they encountered and what they plan to do, so next one will hopefully be similar.

Mike,

Interesting links, shows the importance in growing the oil and gas sector for the Angolans.

Regards,

Ed.

Hi Mike,

I'm good, hope you are too! They're still showing on ADVFN but I see what you mean they've now turned up on LSE site too and three have been deleted. Strange goings on indeed. Lol perhaps they did fall asleep when putting in so many trades. Strangely some are at different prices.

Regards,

Ed.

Just showed up on ADVFN, 6 x 5m. 4 of them are priced at 1.15p and the other 2 are priced at 1.10. 2 of them are timed at 4:06 I guess yesterday afternoon. So there's some reshuffling going on by someone. Perhaps Align may have sold some more off to a keen buyer.

Regards,

Ed.

Hi Nige,

From the contact I've had with him so far he seems very clued up on what he's doing. I reckon he's being realistic with those targets but obviously can't speak for the guy. I do feel he sees those as realistic though given current events and what may happen at Galinda also. Imo all it would take is one more discovery on these blocks and his £100m target could easily be game on, especially if that was on KON-16 our operated block and highest working interest. We've yet to see how big Tobias is and how it flows. Some people for example see realistic values as x3 NOI so flow rates are key for that.

Regards,

Ed.

Bladey,

Lets hope so! The updates on TO-13 and TO-14 drilling results are certainly very encouraging and worth reading again for anyone that hasn't done so.

Regards,

Ed.

Sienna,

I doubt there will be much more bobbling left to do, we've been pending news on TO-14 for some time now so I reckon most of the short termers have moved on (volume has certainly decreased again). We do seem to be consolidating since the last run up to 1.4p. We'll find out in due course where the next news takes us. Mr Karam has his sights on 1.6, 3.2 and 6.4p if those options are anything to go by! Coincidentally that's approx £25m, £50 and £100m market cap at those price at current shares in issue. Fingers crossed its a whopper.

Regards,

Ed.

Nige,

Yes I reckon there's lots left to price in yet, cap is barely above £16m at the moment and there is quite a long list of what that has to cover like sale of mining assets, Canegrass, Mt Weld and the main attractions of Tobias and Galinda. There would also be oil exploration companies with caps higher than £16m with exploration prospects less than 297mmbbls net prospective resources (what CRCL have in their three blocks). Yeah if we get some strong results from the flow testing I reckon they should go on a promotion blitz with lots of video interviews to get it known as one of the new AIM oil and gas companies.

I would imagine now that we should get a fairly comprehensive update from the company on Tobias, the results of the two wells and what that means for the EPS. As pointed out the last we got on the 28th Dec said that the cleanup and testing was beginning. Like Dicko said today that's about 5 weeks ago now. There will be a few days in between testing TO-14 and TO-13 for the demob and moving the rig etc. I would imagine the rest of the time will be used for cleanup and testing.

What we do know is that prior to drilling the two recent wells the partners believed there was 65mmbbls unproduced oil remaining in Tobias. That's quite plausible given the size of the field and the fact that it was drilled mainly in the 60's and 70's. A lot would have come on from then including quality of the cement, perforation guns and especially logging to identify what is and isn't pay. So the recent results from the drilling make for interesting reading at this stage. So hopefully part of the next Tobias/Angola update may cover what they now believe is in Tobias or at least how they plan to move to booked reserves. So I'm hoping the next update is a chunky one with lots of info on forward plan, possible CPR and moving to development, fingers crossed.

Regards,

Ed.

Good morning Guys and Gals,

Nige, I've been watching that one, its amazing how it has risen. It was even capped at circa £100m before it even drilled a single well in Tanzania. Its currently sitting around £50m as you say on a well with elevated background gas, so far no mention of gas returns in the mud or gas kicks when drilling etc. So that's one heck of a gamble. Just shows the odd anomalies on AIM when we have a field redevelopment with movable oil and oil shows throughout the Binga in both wells and are currently capped at £16m (plus the other assets too of course), we also know that Tobias is a large target from previous wells. A lot more risk being priced in here than at HE1. Just more AIM oddities. In the past companies like SOU, HUR and UKOG all shot up to around £1bn valuation so AIM investors can get carried away at times.

Sienna,

Thanks very much for the compliments, however I think that Mr Karam is doing a fine job as exec Chairman, backed up by technical staff in Angola etc, not sure that the company really needs a CEO right now as its being led in right direction imo.

Exciting assets, company has its sights on first revenues, I'm looking forward to see how their strategy develops.

Regards,

Ed.

Nige,

At the current cap there's not a lot priced in here, if they can get those Ni assets sold this year a good portion of our cap could be cash. Angola seems to be shaping up nicely at the moment. So I reckon there is very little in our cap for Canegrass.

They've mapped what they believe are surface pegmatite clusters at Canegrass, the assays are set out to prove that. If they do that and those rock chips are positive and decent grade it won't cost much for a shallow drill campaign. If they could do that from the potential cash flow from the planned EPS, even better. So the potential is there for Canegrass to turn into something of very decent value, but we need to see those assays first and see if that warrants further drilling. I would see this as a bonus asset if it comes in, certainly focus is rightly on Angola at the moment.

Regards,

Ed.

Nige,

Its all gone pretty quiet on that one, initial grades were ok. They didn't get to drill their main target there so not sure if they'll go back to it. I guess we may find out in due course, although events in Angola may make that one pretty irrelevant. I've still got some hope that we may get something positive from Canegrass though as our neighbours did get good grades.

Regards,

Ed.

Nige,

Fingers crossed. I also reckon that BMA have about 1 1/2 weeks to get that counter offer in to pre-empt IBM for Mambare. Hopefully Canegrass assays will come this Q too. A lot of pies and hopefully enough fingers for CRCL. :)

Regards,

Ed.

Its certainly hard to say for sure if these two wells were drilled or not. According to the circa $13m bookbuild right before the bondholders got involved the clarification RNS clarified what those funds were to be used for. Presentations around this time suggested that the company had half the required casing on hand.

As for stock market rules, they don't trump ops at all. For example a small listed NOP cannot reveal an oil discovery until given notification to do so by the operator (tight hole status), that could even remain in place until after testing of that well. Not exactly the same position COPL were in but it does happen.

Not only the confidential wells. but what happened to the restricted production, new gas injection strategy, production guidance for 2024 and strategic update (most of those we were told would be published last year? Stock market rules indeed.

Regards,

Ed.