Member Info for Edgein

Troajan,

Cheers for posting that, a very good interview. A couple more months to define those possible stratigraphic targets in Namibia, they could add significantly to the prospective. Very positive interview and bodes well for the next 1-2 years. Cameroon could be the key to unlocking the lot.

Regards,

Ed.

Morning Nige,

I sure did, hope you did too!

Yeah I think we may get more than one update. Last update kinda points to an update after TO-14 tests and then a move to TO-13. So my guess is that we'll get an update on TO-14 in the next week or two and then same again to test TO-13. Both wells had multiple intervals etc.

Regards,

Ed.

Morning Dan,

I don't think that I have seen a CoS for these two infill wells as yet. Although CoS is only a rough guide as ADV (I think that is what they were called) had a 90% CoS and their well was water wet with no commercial oil.

While I don't count my chickens on any well before I see the results I would say that the chances of these wells in the Tobias field have a high chance of flowing. That's why I'm not selling any ahead of the results, I'm not counting on a result like TO-4 either. If you read both the the RNS releases to date on TO-13 and TO-14 they both suggest pretty much all of the characteristics are there that you want to see before a test. Oil shows throughout the target formation, no water, pressure, highly fractured (important for carbonates), mobile oil, these are the basics you want to see before testing. But in addition to that we get comments about return to original pressure and re-equilibrium, these are even better as this is new well data and they can compare that to the original well data across this large structure (which produced 29mmbbls). So my gut feeling right now is saying these are likely to flow, and potentially flow quite well.

So I'm certainly more excited than nervous about these two upcoming well results, no guarantees though as human error can sometimes play a role when drilling or testing. But less likely as its Sonangol doing both. I would suggest that folks read both news releases again on these wells as they suggest they'll be an important part of the EPS.

"The initial results of the TO-13 well are an important moment for Corcel and highly encouraging, having successfully demonstrated hydrocarbons across multiple potentially productive zones and multiple intervals. TO-13 looks to cornerstone development of a future EPS and provides Corcel with line of sight to near-term revenue generation, and the testing programme will give us invaluable data on how best to deliver on that goal."

TO-14:

"The Operator and CRCL believe the results confirm the ability to reactivate production through an early production system ("EPS") and imply significant hydrocarbon potential remaining."

While nothing is confirmed yet, there's plenty of hints and clues so far about the potential of the results to date. Once folks read the information to date they can make their minds up from that. I know I have.

Regards,

Ed.

Hi Nige,

Just NOP on KON-12 just like KON-11. CRCL is current operator of KON-16 only.

I would imagine that more of the convertible note draw down will happen for the EPS, but like you say it all depends on the timing of the Wowo gap and Mambare sale completion.

Well that's the key question for sure, all we heard was looking at gas production in Brazil and/or consolidation of Assets in Angola. They did apply for KON-15 so that suggests they're open to exploration blocks too, but I guess at the right price they could go after some of the discoveries onshore or even offshore Angola. We'll find out in "several weeks" what part Tobias plays in all of this. Fingers crossed a big part, should hear about Mambare sale soon too.

Regards,

Ed.

Luke, you're welcome!

Morning Nige,

CRCL already have 25% gross or 22.5% net on Galinda and block KON-12, I guess you mean farm out their interest in Galinda? Its a deeper well so likely cost more than Tobias, but at the same time 25% isn't going to really stretch them too much. Imo the next payments from the sale of the Ni assets should hopefully be in by then. Also if Galinda drilling is Q4 then we should be well on our way through that planned EPS, perhaps even see first revenues before year end (forward plan should give us more details). So there are things that could happen here that covers the first well on Galinda for CRCL, but lets see how it all works out.

Yeah I reckon that Mr Karam set those ambitious price targets on his share options for a reason, further acquisitions and consolidation in Angola could play a part in that too (compare that to Mr Asher's options on TRP today at a discount). If things go our way they could potentially get there from the three current blocks. KON-16 for example is 31.5% net and operated by CRCL, one large discovery on that block and we'd be off to the races.

Regards,

Ed.

Good morning Calder,

Yes the exploration targets so far identified from the loose seismic grid on these blocks totals 297mmbbls net to CRCL. Yes that's a large amount of potential oil above and beyond the discoveries at Tobias and Galinda. That of course has exploration risk, but this is a pretty prolific basin and even if 10% of those targets come in it would be very material to a current £13m company. We did discuss a slide on here where CRCL had tweeted that there's likely missed structures between the seismic. So their plan is to shoot more seismic on these blocks, so that prospective oil inventory may increase as they identify more leads. The prospective volume identified already is very impressive for a small company; if they establish a solid production base from Tobias and Galinda, nothing stopping them cracking on with seismic and expo drilling.

Regards,

Ed.

We do get some nonsense on here suggesting that the GGS wasn't tested.

July 2023:

"The high-pressure gas gathering pipeline system has been installed, and tested and is awaiting the following"

"Upon installation of the wellsite/production separation facilities, the system will be commissioned."

"The Company's Reservoir Engineer and its specialist reservoir engineering firm are developing a revised miscible injection strategy for commencement late in the third quarter following the upgrades to BFSU gas gathering system and production facilities. The Company reduced miscible injection volumes and miscible concentration in March 2022 to manage the field's operating pressures at certain facilities and well sites. Oil production from the BFSU is a function of injection volumes. It is the Company's intention to resume injection volumes to a level to return to its previous oil production peak in late 2021/early 2022 before injection volume reduction."

"With the required upgrades to our field gas gathering system nearing completion, we are focusing our attention on a revised injection strategy to return the field to its designed depletion strategy which should result in a return to the previous production peak and an increasing production profile."

As Rodney's posts clearly show they didn't get anywhere close to increasing injection rates back to where they were at the previous production peaks. They pretty much just recycled gas back through the GGS rather than dramatically increasing injection rates back to where they were in 2021.

Regards,

Ed.

Lse,

Yeah we potentially could be looking at that sort of reserve eventually.

Bench,

Totally different management, new Chairman put £10m available funding at 0.8p, partially drawn, share price was 0.4p when that was announced. With the sale of the legacy assets currently heading towards completion and that largely undrawn convertible facility CRCL are well funded.

Regards,

Ed.

I don't see any reason that we shouldn't have a similar cap to that of BOIL right now or £13m, in fact higher, as we've better assets and closer to drilling.

Regards,

Ed.

Nige,

I guess, share price isn't on fire just yet and there has been light trading recently. I gotta say though that I'm looking forward to the TO-14 flow test results as much now as I was back on the 28th December. Its still got the potential to be a company making well, hopefully flow test results will clarify things.

Regards,

Ed.

Affc,

You're welcome. Yes you're correct, the more naturally fractured the reservoir is the easily the oil will flow through it. From sampling the current oil shows in the Binga they can see if they have the same oil biomarkers as the original Tobias oil. TO-13 being down structure should be closer to source and recharge first so even more interesting if it matches oil from previous producers updip on the crest. It is possible that the source rock is still deep enough (right pressure and temperature) to be generating oil. Hopefully the next few RNS releases will cover a lot of these details, the TO-14 update end of December had a lot of info in there to get through.

Regards,

Ed.

Good morning Nige,

This is from the RNS from 28th Dec '23

"Initial pressure readings support Corcel's predrill thesis that the reservoir has returned to its original pressure levels through active recharge of the system."

The company believes that the reservoir has recharged back to original pressure levels. As an oil field depletes it has more void space and reduces pressure, therefore flow rates decline. That can be offset through pressure support wells such as water injectors; the water injected under pressure fills the void space and helps to push the remaining oil towards the producers etc. So in the case above initial pressure at TO-14 suggests that the oil has recharged and brought the pressure back up to original levels, which I would assume means to a similar level to before Tobias produced. That's certainly possible if oil were to be migrating from source. Lets see what the flow tests and pressure build up tests suggests.

Regards,

Ed.

Good morning guys

Lsetown,

Yes true they believed before drilling there could be as much as 65mmbbls unproduced. The wells were all vertical and widely spaced on this large field. Drilling of TO-13 and TO-14 suggests that the field has returned to original pressure and no water encountered to date (even though TO-4 watered out and there was a water injector on the field). So drilling is certainly pointing towards recharge, potentially full recharge. This field was mainly drilled in the 60's and 70's, so even logging would be transformed since then. So the modern wells will given a better idea of oil in place and recoverable. I'm sure we'll hear at some point when the company will commission a CPR to update the OIP and recoverable numbers.

If they match pre-drill estimates, let alone increase, our tiny cap will come under pressure imo. Several weeks isn't a long time that's for sure and the market seems largely unaware of what's going on given the volume of trading this week so far. Lets see what happens.

Regards,

Ed.

Hi Nige,

They'll do flow tests followed by pressure build up tests. That tells them how good the reservoir is close to the wellbore and how quickly it recharges to full pressure again. That and the volumes produced can give them an idea how the permeability is in that area and obviously how productive the reservoir is. That combined with the mud logs and coring (if they took cores while drilling, not confirmed yet) would give them a lot of info about the reservoir. Also pressure is very important too as flowing pressure shows drive; the two main drive mechanisms are gas and water, we know no water observed in the wells to date just oil shows.

What we did get is that the company, and obviously Sonangol, believe that TO-13 and TO-14 are connected, showed similar characteristics from the intervals encountered. That is a big plus when it comes to calculating volumetrics. So they can potentially use the old historic wells to calculate oil in place for a possibly recharged reservoir. If this had been a new field they would need at least three wells to prove connectivity over a certain area. So they may be able to give an updated volume of oil in place using these wells and the older wells. Ideally though sidetracking the old wells or drilling new horizontals would give a more accurate idea of what's down there. Certainly drilling TO-13 downdip of previous wells and finding oil shows and then showing connectivity to TO-14 is very positive.

Several weeks and we'll have the test results and given what the company has said so far about TO-13 and TO-14 they could be very interesting indeed. TO-14 in particular could make a material difference to CRCL, but lets not count chickens yet nor make predictions, there's not long to wait now to find out. Then we'll hear about the forward plan and perhaps independent verification of the reserves based on the new wells and activity.

Regards,

Ed.

ALB,

We'll find out in the coming weeks how big Tobias may be. I'm sure you're already doing well from your holding. They sure do have the to get to Mr Karam's 6.4p target. Tobias and Galinda might get us there, if they can match those previous peaks on Tobias then most of the work will be done. We'll find out in due course.

Sienna,

Yes correct, BMA have rofr on Mambare only and IBM could still complete on Wowo gap.

Nige,

Well the comments from the finals mentioned acquisitions, so sounded if they were looking at more than one project. Also previous links to interviews posted suggested he was also looking offshore. So who knows perhaps we may see Mr Karam go for another project this year. They're likely to be very busy on Tobias and Galinda regardless. If Tobias gives strong flow rates who knows what they could put their sights on.

Regards,

Ed.

Hi Sienna,

Yes IBM at the moment have offers in for Wowo gap and Mambare. BMA have a right to first refusal in place on Mambare, that is what the 45 day pre-empt period is for. BMA now have the option to make a matching offer legally within 45 days of being formally notified by CRCL. If they choose not to do so then its available for IBM to close on the previous offers for all CRCL's Ni assets.

ALB, if you take Mr Karam as wise counsel he set his share options to vest at 1.6p, 3.2p and 6.4p recently as a reward for share price performance between now and 2026. I'm looking forward to see which of these he can hit through Tobias, Galinda, exploration drilling and Angolan consolidation and how he aims to succeed where others have failed. Others may not have as long an outlook.

Regards,

Ed.

Hi Nige,

I'm good, hope you are too! Yup that pretty much sums it up. Either BMA matches the IBM offer or pass up on it. If IBM are the successful bidder for Mambare they can then move to complete both Mambare and Wowo gap acquisitions. The sale of both those assets would be roughly equivalent to about half our current market cap over time, so pretty significant once completed. Not in our current cap to price in Angola, Canegrass and Mt Weld. The immediate cash elements on completion could come in very useful.

Shockingly we've a similar cap to SYN currently, they have a mediocre/poor asset in India which they can't get to flow any decent amount over many years of trying (verticals and horizontals). Shows how little is priced in here currently, hopefully the market will get a wake-up call around "several weeks" from now!

Regards,

Ed.

Just to clarify that was 8th of December '23.

Regards,

Ed.

Good morning Sienna,

In October we got this:

"Following Corcel shareholder approval, the Company will formally notify BMA of a bonafide offer for its interest, starting a 45-day period in which BMA can legally pre-empt the transaction."

Shareholder approval was given on the 8th, so I guess they would have notified BMA shortly after this. So I would imagine that the 45 day period, excluding Christmas and New year will be running imminently. Hopefully see something this week about that. Shouldn't have long to wait for TO-14 flow test results either.

Regards,

Ed.

Morning Nige,

Yeah had a good one, hope you did too! Yeah there may be a few sellers today that don't want to wait several weeks more. Seems a little odd timing to sell now after waiting 7 weeks or so for the test results. Now we have a clear path to results, but each to their own. I was tempted to buy the dip this morning. Yeah looks like TO-14, TO-13 and Mambare updates all due this Q for starters.

Regards,

Ed.