Member Info for Edgein

Hi Nige,

Well folks are hoping that the flow rates will come before the conference tomorrow. Would be good publicity if they did as there's the possibility of Apex or Corcel getting a mention too. But in the grand scheme of things it'll probably not change a lot. Results out or not they could probably still give guidance on Tobias being developed and expected to produce 17500bopd approx by Q4 as per presentation at the conference. Results out beforehand would just be a happy bonus in my book. Presentation has end of TO-14 testing this Q. As I said previously this conference is to promote Angolan production/development and attract investment in.

I don't think that CRCL will want any more partners at this stage. Yes that 628mmbbls target on KON-16 is big enough to attract majors or large companies. But with Tobias cashflow guidance CRCL should be very well funded to drill this well at 35% in 2026 without any more than those already in the JV.

So if the results are out today or tomorrow before the conference then great hurrah we'll at least know what these first two wells are doing. If not it doesn't really change anything it will still be a case of waiting. Just like the CNOOC article today, the majors will still likely be chasing those established large scale offshore assets. I don't want to see CRCL being bought out at an early stage, I want to see them develop these fields and drill the big targets.

Regards,

Ed.

Morning guys,

You think that the whole situation cannot get any murkier until the company then releases another RNS. It seems like there was no rule book on this one. From holders holding more than the issued shares, to aggressive naked shorting, to squads of paid posters running 24/7. It sure has been an eye opener! Well done to the guys getting all the info out there to the right people to enlighten the court process as to what's gone on. Most of what has come out you couldn't make it up any more.

Regards,

Ed.

Morning Nige,

I had a good one, hope you did too. Yeah its nice to see the first of the expected results out and that they do confirm the potential for multiple elements. They'll need some RC drilling to see if these high grades can be repeated from drilling these two identified pegmatites from the RNS.

Mr Karam called these results intriguing so he sounds interested for sure, they did also mention that they're going to run battery metal and oil and gas assets together. Also the Ni assets that are in the process of being sold were way more advanced than Canegrass, not only did they have drilling but they had enough holes to establish an indicated reserve on at least parts of the assets. Canegrass is very early stage at this point compared to what IBM/BMA are buying. Personally I'd like to see some drilling on Canegrass before they sell, but no doubt we'll get more info in the future. They may plan to hold these assets for future development, very early to say yet as its only been a few positive rock chips so far.

Regards,

Ed.

Kat,

These are rock chips and clearly distributed right across the licence area. Its the drilling results that make the real difference. Some of the chips are high grade though as this surface material and it will be weathered as the pegmatites are outcropping at surface. I would certainly say that these warrant at least a followup shallow drilling campaign as that shows that multi elements exist on Canegrass and some at potentially commercial values. Check out the value of Rb for example. Put it this way if they got 1.33% Li and 0.67% Rb over a decent width when RC drilling that would be a very interesting hole. But like I say rock chips are never decisive, just interesting. Some companies get better drill results, some get worse, but to get mineralisation spead across the project area is intriguing. Certainly not the main even here which should be any day, when I saw the 1 today on ADVFN I thought here we go, flow rate time but not just yet it seems.

Regards,

Ed.

Nige,

You're welcome. The target remains the same, from the presentation start up rates are planned to be around 17500bopd, it also says may require additional wells. So if its these two wells then great, if its another 1-3 wells for the EPS, then fine as CRCL are well funded. So we'll see soon. It sure will be exciting, this time last year revenues were only something to be dreamed about, now we are on a path to them this year. Such a rapid turnaround, that is also rare on AIM too. Yeah its very near term for results now, between now and early April from that guidance. Eyes peeled for that RNS.

Regards,

Ed.

Nige,

A good flow rate for the well would be 2500-3000bopd for a well that depth, a great result would be close to twice that. A world class, outstanding result would be like TO-4 or 12,580bopd.

From the presentation it looks like both wells are being tested in parallel, that is the latest information. It looks like around now/any day for TO-14 and perhaps start of April that testing of TO-13 ends. It makes sense to test both wells together to get pressure information related to connectivity (they previously announced that the wells showed connectivity). There can be some delays in oil and gas ops, but that's what it looks like on the most recent presentation.

Regards,

Ed.

TNM,

Yup that's the very one.

Howdy Nige. :) Exactly a Stetson or a really large smile, either would do for the next video interview! Fingers crossed. It certainly is an important time for Angola, even CRCL have set themselves a timeline on the current blocks. They want the whole lot wrapped up by around 2039. So time is of the essence for Angola's oil production. So I'm sure the Angolans would want more commitments from US funds and US big oil into the next couple of decades. I agree right place right time, oil getting more expensive at the moment too, so great time to be planning two field redevelopments etc. JR and Cliff Barnes can stay in TV land, hopefully Mr Karam will get us plenty of the black stuff.

Regards,

Ed.

TNM,

Its the Angolans. they're over promoting their oil industry in Houston, the home of Texas tea. So I guess they're looking to drum up US investment into their industry to help boost their national production. So holders here are hoping we might see some news on TO-14 prior to the 19th (as Corcel were mentioned in the same article regarding the conference). It does also tie in with the recent presentation which shows TO-14 testing ending late this Q. So eyes peeled, look out for Stetsons etc If you see Mr Karam wearing one it would be a definite sign. :)

Regards,

Ed.

Breq,

Interesting view. Certainly chart on page 14 is an easier read than the chart on Page 11. Yeah even though Galinda is a much smaller development it won't be online from late this year, I can't see it contributing until at least middle of next year. That brings us back to the page 11 chart.

Is the KON-11 line as high as 6000bopd, perhaps who knows. What is interesting, apart from the cumulative oil production total being a staggering 300mmbbls, we have a light grey sharkfin stairway to heaven production chart in the background that peaks at around a staggering 110k bopd. :) It goes crazy from around the middle of 2027 when I guess they'll be drilling KON-16 around then.

Tracking that one back to 2024/2025 is certainly interesting as it suggests that right up to 2027 there's going to be around 10-12k bopd coming from somewhere. I didn't give it too much thought or traction at the time as I wasn't sure where all that was coming from as its not gross field production either. Perhaps we'll get an explanation for that sometime this year, does it include inorganic growth/M&A perhaps?

Regards,

Ed.

Nige,

That is certainly a possible way to comprehend that quote for sure. It does make it sound like that, but I guess its a wait and see.

Breq,

That's interesting about Brite's website. I hope Mr Karam is reading that too! :) Would make for an interesting proposition before first oil for sure. We'll see what happens I guess.

I must be reading those graphs a little differently. The page 11 chart I'm guessing that grey line is about 3-4000bopd to represent Tobias with Galinda being the dark blue line below for KON-12.

Page 14 chart shows to different things, blue lines are average annual production in bopds/bbls, peaking in 2024, natural decline through to 2039. Going from around 17500bopd down to I guess about 1000bopd or less. Orange line represents cumulative field production on the right of the chart showing total field production around 30mmbbls total (scale goes from around 5,000,000bbls to 35,000,000bbls). Chart above is for cash flow from the field, annual and cumulative. We seem to be reading these charts in a different way.

Regards,

Ed.

Perhaps someone should have forwarded the Feburary 2021 presentation to both Mr Kravitz and Mr Richardson. That would be the one entitled:

Atomic: A Strategic Acquisition with Significant Leverage February, 2021

It contains classics such as:

"High NPV asset at a price well below traditional metrics

• NPV (10%) @ 2020 WTI base of $39.00: Proved(P1): $101.5 million; Proved + Probable(P2): $185million (Ryder Scott Report)"

(These are the assets that are now worth nothing or next to nothing even though oil is now twice that $39.00 base level)

"The Operated oil fields are new (Young) oil producing assets, at the beginning of their 40+ year life, current

inclining production (see page 16) growth from gas/propane miscible flood implemented as a secondary recovery

scheme shortly after the delineation/development."

The company knew full well before July 2023 that this field wasn't just a trail to inject small amounts of NGLs

"A Game Changing Acquisition for COPL: Leverage to COPL"

"Net Asset Valuation: (80% P2 Reserves of $308 million (10% NPV)) at c. $62/bbl. WTI"

That was at $62/bbl before they had even bought Cuda

"The Operated oil fields are new (Young ) oil producing assets, at the beginning of their 40+ year life, current inclining

production (see page 16) growth from gas/propane miscible flood implemented as a secondary recovery scheme shortly after the delineation/development."

That bit was so good they repeated it twice just so it sank in!

"COPL re-simulated BFU plateau production (January 2021): 7,000 bbl./d at 10 MMCF/d gas injection rate (page 17)"

Note that this was 10mmcfd of GAS injection modelled, no mention of NGLs.

"New infrastructure and direct access to pipeline in the “oil friendly State of Wyoming”

And it has been ungraded since, this isn't just a few old rusty wellheads.

Then we have the absolute chestnut on page 17, that displays peak projected oil at 8000bopd and show how the inclining gas injection rate, and produced gas rate keep inclining to increase and maintain the oil production rate, with the make up gas rate (difference between the produced gas an injected gas) remained stable. Seems between July 2023 and December 2023 gas injection rate was no longer part of the plan. This presentation may still be available on the COPL site, worth a download if folks haven't got it. Send that to your judge as it shows just how valuable this all is at $39/bbl let alone $80/bbl.

Maybe if Mr Richardson had used this presentation as a guide he would have perhaps decided to inject some more natural gas into the field! Or maybe not :)

Regards,

Ed.

Nige,

Production would come with reserves, so most likely route would be debt/RBL. See AET and SRSP as recent examples of that route to production in Angola.

Regards,

Ed.

Hi Nige,

You're getting stuck in early! You must live in the tropical lowlands of the UK, a few weeks before grass cutting here. I know what you mean if that keeps up we'll be thinking more about building an ark than gushing oil in Angola!

Absolutely, we've the finance guys and a management looking to aggressively grow, makes it seem that Tobias is only the first step to bigger and better things. Even get the mention of acquiring production. Definitely exciting, CRCL must be very close now to flow rates as they're describing themselves as an Angolan focused exploration and production company.

Regards,

Ed.

Good morning Nige,

I'm good, hope you are too! Yeah interesting info from AET this morning, seems they are getting prices similar to Bonny light for their oil (a premium to Brent). So relevant and interesting, not sure why their share of production is higher than their working interests though, perhaps they get a higher share of cost oil while financing. But at least it shows how much they're getting paid, Important for both CRCL's EPS and FFD plans.

Breq,

Its an interesting idea for sure and CRCL have mentioned consolidation in Angola. Have you looked at Brite's financials? Clearly our APEX deal was mutually beneficial to both, CRCL brings the cash they brought in the pre-drill assets. Would be great if they could consolidate on this field early as we are debt free. But it may just be wishful thinking on our part, but you never know everyone has a price.

As for the Tobias field production I was using page 14 of the recent presentation that suggests ip rates of 17500bopd or thereabouts in Q4. That then declines through to 2039, their 15 year plan for oil production. For a cumulative production of 30mmbbls. Did you see those other numbers elsewhere in the presentation? If we manage to get to those projected start up rates by year end it would be a fantastic result. That EPS would be throwing off significant cash to fund the FFD and seismic elsewhere etc.

Regards,

Ed.

Breq,

While I agree the presentation numbers are likely conservative at this stage after these wells but before FFD with modern drilling (as you suggest they do mention sidetrack and horizontals for Tobias). I just cannot see 36,000bopd by year end as being a possibility at all. I would agree with the margin for the EPS oil and likely trucking that oil to the refinery given what AET are receiving per bbl currently (today's update). Interesting idea too that CRCL may move on consolidating interests in KON-11, that's a possibility and hopefully one they could do early, perhaps soon after the EPS, but long before they go FFD. Be interesting to see if any of the other NOP's would be willing to sell and at what price.

Given the presentation it does suggest an appraisal phase between now and the EPS start up, so it will be interesting to hear what the plans are after the completion of the mini LPT.

Affc21, there sure does look like more opportunity for down dip drilling to the SE in the Tobias field for sure and may establish a new oil down to point. That would be very good for a reserves prospective. But it will be interesting to hear where they believe the new recharge pressure/oil is coming from.

As for Galinda, it certainly looks like a more complicated task than Tobias with some outstanding producers right next to wells with oil shows. Perhaps showing compartmentalisation or at least faulting and therefore suitable to horizontals as you suggest. There could be significant benefits for long horizontals on that field. With Galinda drilling planned for late this year or early next not a really long time to find out.

Lots happening in the next number of months so it will be interesting to see how all this unfolds.

Regards,

Ed.

Stas,

Ah my mistake on that part, thanks for clarifying that. I probably glossed over or sped read that RNS. I missed that bit about the temp management not getting those bonds.

Regards,

Ed.

Nige,

Your list pretty much covers everything we're expecting updates on in the near term. Whether the battery metal focus means more assets or Canegrass we'll find out in due course. Results from Canegrass assays soon according to the presentation. I can't see them making a significant battery metals acquisition until we see first revenues from Tobias. I think they did hint that further oil and gas acquisitions are likely to be after that too for areas beyond Angola. If they hit the level of production they're aiming at from the presentation that could do a lot of BM or oil and gas exploration and indeed acquisitions too. I certainly wouldn't let the BM focus bug me at present, if Canegrass comes in then great what a bonus, but I see it as largely irrelevant at present compared to Tobias and Galinda. If they can run both BM and oil and gas together to our benefit then great.

Regards,

Ed.

Good morning Nige,

LSE, I think that may be a different post you're thinking of as management here do have both warrants and new premium priced options. Extraction, Mr Zhou and the Apex vendors all have warrants from memory, I'd need to check that.

For Extraction to convert more warrants they need the share count to be higher due to the option with Align they're almost at 30% if/when they buy those 99m. Therefore they need someone else to convert their warrants or share options to increase the total shares in issue. They set out their intention imo by offering to buy those shares from Align at a large premium. There is unlikely to be further conversions from them due to their holding until others move first. They could have converted their warrants but instead chose to buy from Align. But ultimately when there's more shares in issue they'll likely exercise more of those warrants to keep them just below 30% imo.

So I guess Nige its what others do first, Extraction can't exercise more warrants or draw and convert those bonds without going over30% presently. I do expect all other warrants beyond Align to be exercised at some point as they're well in the money. That would allow Extraction to do more of the same, will that happen this year? I would imagine so, just can't say for sure. If I still held my warrants here I'd be exercising for sure, but cannot speak for other parties.

Regards,

Ed.

Stas,

Was it not announced though that management were to take bonds in lieu of fees? All their hard effort did they not think they deserved some bonds? Now worthless of course. Did they not receive those bonds? I must have missed that.

Regards,

Ed.

Stas,

Yes for them to veer off the know path to increased production form their in house expert "Art", the GGS upgrade enabled them to pass the previous peak and it was a function of injection volumes. Certainly makes folks wonder why this wasn't the route taken to success. Seems like our new temporary management ignored this advice completely and set on their path of modest gas recycling and mediocre liquids injection to achieve previous production peaks. No wonder it didn't work. The balance of the bonds and interest gone now though, it'll be interesting to see the finding of the FCA during this time as to the activities of those BH, which also included the new temp management Richardson et al as bond holders too.

Regards,

Ed.