Member Info for Edgein

Smkr,

Yeah absolutely, they're doing everything in the right order, not rushing into things. Ambitious and aggressive but not reckless. It has the feel of the next Tullow about it, except onshore, if Tuenza comes in then it'll get there sharpish. Infrastructure for the FFD could make it easy to tie in developments on KON-12 or KON-16 quite easily. The fact that they could soon be in the market for more production is a perfect progression. Possible flow rates and CPR coming to progress to reserves as a good base to build on including more acquisitions. I'm waiting on another tiddler to come in over the summer and if this one hasn't gone too far by then I'll add some more.

Regards,

Ed.

Smkr,

Good find! Another bit of PR to reinforce the production by Q4!

Also my favourite line in the article:

"Karam said the company could soon be in the market for additional projects in Angola or elsewhere in Africa, most likely already-producing ones."

These guys and gals are not hanging around. Sounds like they're being careful what they pick up in Brazil too, not making any rash decisions.

Regards,

Ed.

Morning fellas.

Nige I cannot speak for CRCL so cannot say what they would be happy with per well. But what we do know is that the target is 17500bopd gross by year end from Tobias. Presentation states EPS may require additional wells. If they hit that target I'm sure the company would be delighted, I know I would as that should way more than pay for the FFD costs. That would equal substantial long term revenues to the company with rock solid netbacks according to the presentation economics.

Luke,

Exactly. A very good way to promote the conference on the 19th if they can do that off the back of some good flow rates. Give their presentation a real boost and possibly get more US involvement in the bid round planned for 2025. Hopefully CRCL will be in for some more then too. Getting the word out there and getting CRCL's name out there is all good. Our PR has been getting stronger in recent weeks with the short intro on here, the vimeo and the recent company presentation.

Regards,

Ed.

Its not all about Cameroon at TRP:

6 March 2024

ECO (ATLANTIC) OIL & GAS LTD.

("Eco," "Eco Atlantic," "Company," or together with its subsidiaries, the "Group")

Strategic Farm down in Block 3B/4B Orange Basin South Africa to TotalEnergies and QatarEnergy

Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas Ltd. (AIM: ECO, TSX ‐ V: EOG), ("Eco") the oil and gas exploration company focused on the offshore Atlantic Margins in South Africa, Namibia, and Guyana, is pleased to announce it has signed a Farmout Agreement ("FOA") pursuant to which Azinam Limited ("Azinam"), its wholly owned subsidiary, will farm out a 13.75% Participating Interest in Block 3B/4B, offshore the Republic of South Africa as part of an aggregate 57% farm down transaction along with its Joint Venture ("JV") Partners Africa Oil SA Corp. ("Africa Oil") and Ricocure (Proprietary) Limited ("Ricocure") to TotalEnergies EP South Africa B.V., who will become Operator ("TotalEnergies") and QatarEnergy International E&P LLC ("QatarEnergy") (the "Transaction").

Upon completion of the Transaction, Eco will retain a 6.25% interest in Block 3B/4B.

Come on Jeremy get us some action from South Africa and remind everyone its a valuable asset! CEG also got a deal with Chevron today so it seems like its farm-out season again.

Regards,

Ed.

Good morning Luke,

Thanks for posting that article on here. Makes interesting reading that the Angolans are promoting their activities in the US. Hopefully that will bring in more investors before and after the 19th, specifically naming us alongside Exxon won't do any harm that's for sure! Wouldn't it be great timing if the flow rates of TO-14 were known before the 19th (fingers crossed).

Regards,

Ed.

Hi Nige,

Yes AET are on around that, I think their next acquisition when it completes will take them to around 6k bopd, but ye as you say they'll end up with more debt than CRCL. Makes us look very cheap for sure. When you look at the likes of UPL, BOIL or AXL then very very cheap.

Regards,

Ed.

Nige,

Good man, exercise is as important as making the cash! It'll be nice to see the warm weather coming back in again soon.

Exactly, when you read that presentation £50m looks quite easily doable when they predict over 3000bopd net to CRCL in the near term (2024).

If they go over 30% they would have to make an offer, personally I don't see them going over that limit. Mr Karam talks about making a unicorn on AIM,

Confounded,

I would imagine that over the next 12 months or so all of the in the money warrants will get exercised, some of those are held by Extraction as well as Align and Mr Zhou. So the shares in issue are likely to increase. That may allow Extraction to convert some more. But with those loan notes they can also take cash plus interest rather than conversion, so that's another option rather than convert. The warrants I do expect to get exercised at some point though. Yeah that's a good point, they prevented a possible overhang, put the shares in solid hands as you suggest and may mean less conversion of the notes.

Mr Karam and CRCL are showing others how its done, very well organised and executed so far. In terms of comms up there with the best of them on AIM. A clear and concise path so far on how they'll grow the company. Looking forward to the move on to C. :)

Regards,

Ed.

Morning Nige,

I sure did, hope you did too!

My thinking is that it depends on the flow rates. EPS is for 17500bopd according to the presentation, it will be how many wells that get us there. If its two then fantastic what a result, if its 3 or 4, no worries our 20% gross cost is likely to come from the notes yet to be drawn. So its now all down to how many wells to get to target production. For the FFD it will take quite a few wells to drain the field if like suggested its fully recharged.

Extraction are an investor and looking to make money. They wouldn't buy at a 37% premium unless they see upside well beyond that imo. Mr Karam set is options to vest right up to 6.4p, if they were to hit on that 628mmbbls exploration target on KON-16 that would look cheap.

Regards,

Ed.

Good morning LoP, guys and gals,

My thoughts on flow rates? Imo both wells should flow quite well, personally anticipating thousands of bopd for each of TO-14 and TO-13. We may get an update sometime during the test period or may have to wait until the end (around the end of the Q as per presentation). Drilling results were certainly very positive with multiple potentially productive zones in each well, return to original pressure, mobile oil and oil shows throughout the Binga in both wells. TO-14 being very close to an outstanding production well (TO-4). We then see the comments that they may require additional wells for the EPS and there is an addition appraisal slot in the presentation up to the start of Q3. That could fit in one or more wells depending on rig availability etc. EPS is scheduled to do 17500bopd (gross) approx in Q4, so that is where the target is from these planned wells. Could the current two wells do that, perhaps given what TO-4 did, but I'm still thinking one or more additional wells at this stage to get that target. I'd be happy with much lesser flow rates due to the fact that when I bought in here this was a £3m company with some mining assets and no sight of any revenues, just a JV pending. So if it takes them a while to get to FFD no issue for me.

We'll know in the coming weeks just how good these wells are and how many more wells between now and the EPS. Either way CRCL are well funded.

RL,

What are my views on the recent trading? I agree there's likely to be a good week ahead. The announcement from Extraction SRL to acquire 99m shares from Align removes the potential for an overhang at 1.2p and it was done at a 37% premium to the share price at the time. That suggests that Extraction SRL views 1.2p as cheap currently. That deal and the approach to flow rates should keep volume and demand up imo, higher than normal as we approach results. Given the year end production target and how well funded CRCL is during this time I see 1.2p as very cheap too. Interesting few months ahead for sure.

Regards,

Ed.

Hi Guys,

The economics are in the presentation. They set out a case for $70/bbl and $80/bbl. Not sure if there is a domestic oil rate for Angola, but with the mono buoy they do have an export route as they mentioned. They should be able to sell at a price around that of other west African oil such as bonny light. I'm nearly sure I read somewhere that Tobias oil is 31 degrees API therefore also light oil. So I'm currently using a sale price of around $80/bbl and $20/bbl opex, so an NOI of about $60/bbl. As for net profit per bbl, that's harder to judge right now as you need to know how much per year is cost oil, i.e recovery of devex, how much their debt would be, you would get cost oil recovery before paying tax etc. Then there's amortization and depreciation of reserves to factor in and for that you would need to know how much was produced and therefore their 2P position. So not going that deep into the economics at this stage. But for the economics given recently of Opex $20/bbl, Sales of $70-80/bbl, IRR of 71-89% (from the presentation), netback of about $60/bbl, the term potential cashcow is hovering around my mind for some reason. :)

Lets be having some flow rates first though, lets hope they are as exceptional as what Mr Pi is thinking earlier today.

Regards,

Ed.

KS,

Not quite true though, the agreement for the option is for shares not unlisted warrants. If for example that VWAP mechanism is triggered around 1.5p, Align/Mr Jennings has to sell 99m shares. Personally I wouldn't class 1.5p as well north of 1.2p. At the moment Mr Jennings would have to exercise warrants to fill that option as he doesn't currently have 99m shares.

PB,

As for Mr Jennings/Align suggesting they're not causing an overhang then why has he been reducing via TR1's recently and then also agreed to sell another 99m shares in the option? Without the option in place looks like a 99m share overhang at 1.2p to me. Good move by Extraction to lock in Mr Jennings to June though (or until the VWAP passes 1.5p like the RNS suggests). The 1.2p option certainly does partly take a large seller out of the market at 1.2p and removes what would have been another block on the price at/above 1.2p.

Regards,

Ed.

RL,

He has a stack of warrants.

Regards,

Ed.

Its great to see this new guy that's running Extraction SRL willing to give Mr Jennings 1.2p per share for 99m shares. He must think that they'll do rather more than 1.2p! :) Now that's the sort of VWAP agreement I like to read, makes a change!

Regards,

Ed.

At a 37% premium to the current share price. Well that takes care of Mr Jennings overhang.

Regards,

Ed.

Hi Nige,

Not sure how they'll release the results of both wells, flow tests are due to end March/April. Results due from the mining exploration activities around then too, so yeah a very active time for the company and likely news flow too. Time flies, development of Tobias should lead into drilling on Galinda and then preparation to drill KON-16 late next year according to the presentation. So yeah a great position for the company and its shareholders to be in right now. Fingers crossed all goes to plan.

Regards,

Ed.

Hi Sienna,

Yes I've read before that the company has authority to start buybacks, not up to speed on that can't say what the quantum of that would be. If we hit the 2024 and 2025 projected production it could easily cover share buybacks imo. With the outstanding warrants and the possibility of more draw downs we'll likely top 2bn in issues at some point. But then lots of oil/mining companies have that and more. Dilution here should be more than offset by increase in shareholder value though the development of the assets. The fact that the company could start share buybacks, and cancel those shares, after Tobias is fully developed (in line with the recent presentation) is a bonus at present. We now have a clean sheet again, no debt as of yet.

Yeah consolidations normally have a negative impact on share prices, but its what happens next that matter. DELT for example is up a little since it consolidated. I'd be much more in favour of a share buyback programme than a consolidation. Given the recent video and presentation I'm not too concerned about more conversions, its gonna happen, especially the warrants well in the money, but that's certainly not my focus.

Kenyan,

I agree, these assets are playing an important role in establishing onshore Kwanza production and given the possible projected production of national importance. That 628mmbbls structure on KON-16 is more the stuff of majors than tiddlers. Yeah it sure is exciting times.

Cheers good luck too!

Regards,

Ed.

Hi Kenyan,

I was wondering the same thing after reading the current presentation. It looks like from the timeline both TO-13 and TO-14 to be tested in parallel and test concludes towards the end of this Q. This may be to monitor pressure changes between the two wells and therefore prove connectivity. The previous RNS suggested connectivity between TO-13 and TO-14. We might get more information on this with the flow test RNS.

Regards,

Ed.

Nige,

Well that's possible DL might be able to spot some good assets in Australia, but then again Mr Zhou has an Australasian focus too. DL also brings up memories of Lenigas and oil and UKOG and as long as he remains no more than an holder, good stuff.

Regards,

Ed.

Nige,

Sure as part of the management team that specializes in the BM side of it Mr Zhou is likely to be a big influence and his connection to IBM etc. Copper gets a mention on page 21, more versatile than lithium and nickel. I'm an oil and gas investor with some mining investments, but recently I've been putting copper, graphite and uranium companies on my watch list (all alt power commodities, less EV reliant). Lithium, nickel and manganese are all very EV reliant and we've yet to see how that will take off.

As for Mr Lenigas, I'm glad he's an investor and not on the board of directors. :)

According to the presentation, we're going to hear about a lot of things in the coming weeks! If they eventually add some high grade copper assets in eventually I wouldn't complain.

Regards,

Ed.

Hi Nige,

As you know for a while all there was here was the Nickel JV. Canegrass and Mt Weld came in later, then obviously Angola. It did give the impression it was a switch to oil and gas and then the Ni assets were to get the chop. The battery metals are going to play a future role it seems, they mention copper, lithium and nickel in the presentation, a lot of the video was also focused on battery metals. The only other companies on AIM like that I can think of at the moment are Reabold Resources and Alba Mineral Resources, both microcaps with oil and gas and mining interests. Obviously lots of oil and gas companies and lots of miners as separate entities. So this would be an unusual, kinda unique mix on AIM to be potentially successful at both, it could work though.

Yeah its going be capital intensive to get Tobias developed, but that will lead to significant revenues according to the presentation. If you look at some of the ASX listed miners a few million AU$ can go a long way to drill shallow targets, so it could work for sure even though its not really been tried before, successfully anyway. We'll see how it works out going forward, management have stated their commitment to both and are aligned with shareholders etc. Should get results from Canegrass and Mt Weld next Q according to the presentation so lets see what happens then. Action packed year according to what we've seen recently and good to see promotion online too.

Regards,

Ed.