Member Info for Edgein

Hi Nige,

Yes Dicko's post was referring to the old TO-4 well that did circa 12,500bpd from the top 8m of the Binga. That's a pretty exceptional result for an onshore well in a carbonate reservoir. Drilling TO-14 in an offsetting position to this well and finding oil and pressure at its location is certainly encouraging and we're now one month on from when the company commented on well clean up and testing commencing (28th Dec). So eyes peeled for sure on the outcome.

Regards,

Ed.

Good morning Nige,

I'm not sure where you are getting that from? No the reservoir can't be x10 bigger than expected. The company reported that the Binga is around 100m thick pre-drilling as they have the historic wells to work from. TO-13 came in a bit larger at 120m, T-14 a little thinner at 80m. They previously mapped the fiend at 3400 acres which is quite large. Modern wells and horizontals would have a larger drainage area to old wells and may increase the oil in place numbers. Also a recharge and increased pressure in the reservoir is likely to lead to increased recoverable, but not by x10!

Regards,

Ed.

Dicko,

Absolutely when you also consider they think that the reservoir has potentially recharged and repressurised according to the updates its very interesting indeed. With oil shows throughout the Binga for both wells they sure do have a lot to test. Exciting times indeed.

Regards,

Ed.

Now*

Regards,

Ed.

Aftr,

That's shocking that they're not admitting to know about the JV termination months before it was released to the market. Many accounts appeared on here saying that, even though according to the company, the JV negotiations were at any advanced stage and they were working on the last remaining outstanding issues. Yet some in advance claimed they knew it wouldn't happen. This rabbit hole just keeps getting deeper.

How did they also know that the high pressure separators ordered in from Alberta wouldn't work? Those were designed to cope with high pressure production and they certainly know what they're doing in Alberta when it comes to oil production. Yet we had multiple accounts coming on here stating they wouldn't work, even though the field production went up by x10 from 2019-2021. Ryder Scott had modeled the miscible flood production up to a potential 5,000bopd and put a resource report on the massive discovery (those you can count on as RS are a global leader in reserve audit).

Folks will have plenty to supply to the LSE et al early next month before they complete their scrutiny of the new admission document.

Regards,

Ed.

Slight amendment:

You will be also find that from subsequent presentations that after the acquisition of Cuda that the Gross 2P increased to 40.5mmbbls or $492m NPV10.

Regards,

Ed.

Micky,

You will be also find that from subsequent presentations that after the acquisition of Cuda that the Gross 2P increased to $492m NPV10.

Also there are other interesting tidbits in those presentations:

"COPL will also own 100% of key infrastructure assets via Pipeco (owner of the pipelines). U.S. producers with strong

infrastructure assets trade at a premium valuation (additional unrealized value of $10 million)"

Moreover they suggested that the GGS (now upgraded and the injectant were worth circa $100m)

None of that included the CCU Frontier 1 and Frontier 3.

Its all out there in their presentations.

Then take this for example:

"Natural Gas injection with a Condensate and LPG (Propane) bullet commenced December 2019 at a maximum rate of 3.4MMCF/d. Currently c. 750 MMCF has been injected"

"BFU Simulated plateau production is c. 5,000 bbl./d (page 16) as per the Ryder Scott Report (October 1, 2020)"

"COPL re-simulated BFU plateau production (January 2021): 7,000 bbl./d at 10 MMCF/d gas injection rate (page 17)"

The GGS upgrade was to enable them to inject up to 8.5mmcfd with further upgrades to that that to 12mmcfd, kinda begs the question as to why they didn't do this when reading what they knew from 2019 right through to July 2023.

Another interesting point, there are certain "realistic" posters on here, or pretend holders should we say that seemed to be aware that the high pressure separators (portaloos) wouldn't make a difference even before they were installed. Where were they getting this information from? Did they know in advance there wouldn't be a material increase in gas injection, a function of oil production no less.

Regards,

Ed.

OFF TOPIC

SteveE60,

I guess its me you are referring to as there isn't an Edwin posting here that I'm aware of? Yes I'm currently down thousands on COPL as are hundreds and potentially thousands of other investors. Its the first company that I've seen that BOD were more closely aligned with bondholders than shareholders. They did pretty much the exact opposite of what they said in July 2023 where they laid out exactly what they had to do to increase production at the BFU. Injectant volumes being a function of oil production, more gas injected increased the oil production. Before the miscible flood started it was at circa 220bopd and peaked at 2000+ bopd. Even though they were fully funded and their oil production was unhedged they were really slow to restart the gas injection strategy after the gas gathering upgrade and then injection volumes went down between October and December '23. This was the exact opposite of what the company had said. Also they said they would give a production guidance and a strategy update before the end of 2023. Of course those didn't materialize either.

All of that has facilitated the repricing of the bonds down to a fraction of a penny, moreover, the JV talks with the "industry leader" which had been running for 15 months also terminated without explanation once the bondholders had made their appointments to the BOD. That has allowed them to build a material position in the company at the expense of shareholders. I've not see the like of it before, its thankfully a rare event that anything like this occurs. But its currently being investigated by the authorities and that will have to run its course. But its not all over just yet.

Thankfully this has nothing to do with CRCL as the two companies are like chalk and cheese. The BOD here are fully aligned with shareholders interests imo.

Regards,

Ed.

Lloyd,

Rather than one person making many complaints it would be best for many to submit that have valid email addresses though. The more genuine complainants the better at the time. Again lets see how the CAG get on first with their digging. I'll let everyone know when I throw my first grenade at the Ad doc. The more activity at the time the better at the right time.

Regards,

Ed.

Lloyd,

Make this your first port of call when the time comes, scroll down to the bottom and make your case (contact us). Just summarize what has gone on operationally and how these shares to be issued in the new admission document have come about and why you don't think the new shares should be admitted. It would be better for this to come from as many sources as possible rather than just a standard cut and paste letter. By all means let your feelings be known. You could also copy in the FCA at this point too.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/resources/equities-trading-resources?tab=rules-and-regulations&accordionId=8-5c38892b-07bf-4ad4-8da4-85afc5eb31f1

I would say not to act just yet though, there will be a scramble to get that admission doc in, but it'll take time to pass, weeks. It was late feb/early march last year. So I'll give the various parties time to achieve something first before going after that Ad doc.

Regards,

Ed.

ST,

Don't worry they're being lined up ready to be pulled. I hope you don't end up with 1.3bn in unlisted shares.

Regards,

Ed.

Stas,

All these shares placed in the last 12 months need admitted to the LSE via an admission document. That's what I'll be targeting next month through the proper channels and I'll be suggesting others do the same. We'll know after that if it makes a difference.

Regards,

Ed.

Leww,

As others have pointed ount on here already. The irony of this all is that if they had injected the gas into the miscible flood and got the production up to a level to sustain the business and drill those appraisal wells all parties would have made a lot more money. They're not chasing this one so hard because the assets are crap that's for sure. Previous presentations highlighted the value of these assets (without the CCU), now the new puppets tells us otherwise.

Even if there is a wind back on some of the activities I cannot see everyone just letting it go. But lets see how it all unwinds first.

Regards,

Ed.

Eddyc,

Thanks to the company at an operation level, their sources of funding and their alignment with social media its really unpredictable as there are now several groups set up trying to get justice for the illegal activities. But its all being looked at. I'm not willing to say at this stage what I'm prepared to do before the 29th of Feb and the next admission document, but that will be a last resort. I'm just waiting to see what others achieve in the mean time before I throw a box of hand grenades into this mix. The outcome even then I cannot predict.

Regards,

Ed.

Stas,

You are likely 100% correct. There was a large placing around the time of the Cuda acquisition, but yet none of that or the bridge loan at the time was used for the Cuda acquisition, just all those bonds. Then the two confidential status wells appeared on that Wyoming website. It probably wasn't coincidence that the company strategy changed to what we have seen since. Why didn't they have an oven ready injection strategy good to go from July commissioning? They didn't seem to really want to take advantage of the unhedged production, when the SL had backed off with the hedge. Also if they had implemented their injection strategy as set out in July 2023 its unlikely that the SL nor the hedge would have been a problem. Also during all this time did they approach their NOP, CNOOC to ask if they wanted to participate for a large interest in the BFU and BFDU to increase their share in production? That's what a genuine struggling operator may do. So yeah you're analysis of the situation is likely very close to the truth.

Regards,

Ed.

Knew*

Stas,

Shocking to see the actual drop in injection volumes over the period when the company had stated their injection strategy would be implemented, was that their injection strategy to decrease injectant? It was bad enough that they took 2 years to fix the plumbing issue and then an additional 4 months after GGS commissioned to come up with an injection strategy; they then didn't bother to increase the injection volumes even though they new that was a function of the oil production. Shocking. That's almost as bad as the naked shorting and media manipulation of the share price. Its going to come home to roost imo.

Regards,

Ed.

Hi Nige,

The July '23 presentation on Page 13 does show that seismic is planned from Q1 24 through to Q3 24 and drilling from Q4 '24 into 2025. That is for KON-12. For KON-16 seismic is to start in Q2 this year and continue into 2025 without mention of drilling.

So my take on that is that the short seismic campaign on KON-12 and closely followed by drilling late this year is highly likely to be Galinda. That's probably the pre-drill definition of Galinda. They did mention somewhere about the preparatory work they did on Tobias before the two wells. My guess is this is the similar situation for the Galinda redevelopment. This may change when we get our next updated presentation, which I would imagine will come after the flow rates and the forward plan for Tobias is known. So fingers crossed drilling Galinda around Q4 this year, hopefully by then Tobias will be in production. Two field developments ongoing would make CRCL busy bees and to think these assets were picked up for a snip.

Regards,

Ed.

Nige,

We sure do have an experienced team for both the financing and the technical side. The new MD for Angola has a lot of experience with the large oil companies too. She'll hopefully have her hands full with Tobias and Galinda soon and perhaps some more Angolan consolidation, base to build on etc. Yeah certainly they gave hints at what they're planning in the recent financial results, acquisitions, building on their position in Angola, succeed where others have failed etc. Makes interesting reading, especially for the newer holders.

Agreed, our cornerstone investors are all still there, the only TR1's we've been seeing are from Align. So very supportive cornerstone investors that seem to be as keen to see the events progress as we are. Yeah its exciting to imagine what could come from Tobias given the info to date and what lies beyond that. Even Canegrass may have something commercial and that would be big news considering how hot lithium is in Australia.

Hopefully get some more progress reports in the near term.

Regards,

Ed.

Stas,

Well they were the comments made by the former CEO as to what was required. The GGS upgrade enabled them to return to past injection volumes and beyond as specified in that RNS. As a result that was to enable them, not only to return to previous peak flow rates, but in addition " an increasing production profile." These turned out to be completely misleading in that the gas injections which are proportional to oil production were not increased to anywhere close to the required level even though the company was funded and unhedged to do so during that time. The goal of the restructuring of the company should be aiming to maximize the gas injection rate therefore maximizing the oil production rate beyond previous peaks.

That ops update did cause many including myself to increase our shareholdings.

Regards,

Ed.