Member Info for Edgein

Confounded,

Good point, not something the company has mentioned. It depends on the condition of the previous wells, they may not be in the best condition after 30 year shut in. But a possibility until we hear otherwise, couldn't rule that out 100% at this point.

Regards,

Ed.

Hi Nige,

I missed your last question, yeah I would say that the decision on horizontal drilling will come after the flow tests. To get the max drainage area that's the best way to go. Also productivity would be multiples of a vertical well and could delay the need for pressure support wells.

Definitely, KON-15 looks sweet, hopefully as we're now NOP to Sonangol and helping them to get production back to Kwanza basin we'll be in the running. I hope we do get a shared interest there. I'd imagine Sonangol will get operatorship as it looks like sweet block.

Definitely, 2024 is shaping up to be a key year, hopefully for both Angola and Australia and getting in most of that cash from the sale of the legacy assets.

Regards,

Ed.

Leew,

Exactly. Would make a refreshing change if the company did what they said:

"The Company will provide a further update before year end regarding its strategy relating to the development of its Cole Creek and Barron Flats Shannon Units."

"The Company plans to provide forward production guidance for 2024 prior to the end of 2023."

Where are these? The top statement isn't ambiguous at all, time ticking on that one.

Lets not get onto the subject of the July ops update which clearly sets out what needed to be done to get production back to previous peaks. Company needs to come clean as investors are making decisions based on partial information.

Regards,

Ed.

Good morning Nige,

That is unlikely, while some companies do open hole flow testing, probably not in this case. They can do side wall cores while the Binga is open hole. Plus they will have a full suite of modern wireline or electric logs plus also the drill cuttings/mud logs. They may also do micro-imaging of the reservoir, looking for those natural fractures. There's all sorts they can do, we may get hints of that in the testing update. They can tell if there is live or mobile oil down there from the mud returns, they may even take a small sample. Clearly they have enough data to date to state connectivity between TO-13 and TO-14 some 1.4kms away. Could be from oil biomarkers or pressure readings in combination with the known lithology from current and previous wells. Given the detailed release yesterday there's lots of info in there to compare all these wells.

Open hole flow testing would be riskier than cased well testing. So imo after all of the logs collected they'll run production liner and once that has set, perforate and test. We know there are multiple potentially productive zones, so they may isolate and test these separately rather than perforate most of the 80m or 120m in one go. Given the world class flow rate of TO-4 (its more like an offshore North Sea sandstone well), they'll likely test zone at a time. They'll not want to over produce. I've never seen an onshore flow rate like that from any well, especially not a limestone/carbonate. Companies talk about well productivity i.e how many bopd per ft they can get. TO-4 is offshore performance.

So we may get an early update or they may hit us when all has been tested. Given that RNS release yesterday I'm really looking forward to see those results.

Regards,

Ed.

BB,

GBP aren't similar to the other companies you mention at all, those other companies all have discoveries. I would also agree with Dicko, they haven't the best blocks in Namibia. TRP, especially with the upcoming Cameroon appraisal target looks much stronger, also have much better blocks in Namibia.

As for the other three, CRCL stands out head and shoulders above those. Tobias results have been outstanding to date and we're about to get two very exciting well tests in the near term. Those other two companies aren't any where near as well funded as CRCL either. Even if we get a fraction of the flow rates of TO-4 we should be off to the races. Sonangol seem to be quite ambitious as they drilled the more risky downdip well first and then drill TO-14 to offset a previous producer. I'm hoping they release the flow test results one at a time for maximum impact. Lets see.

Regards,

Ed.

Layla,

There's been lots of info released on Tobias to date. Yeah I agree its been a strange market for a while now, like you say it leads to some real bargains for folks to take advantage of in the right stocks. Hopefully some will really come together and shine in 2024. It sure would be nice to see the end of the bear market in the natural resources stocks. Lots of the underlying commodities are soaring, gold seems to be hitting new highs on a daily basis at the moment.

Regards,

Ed.

RL,

I would say north of 1p quite soon I'd imagine. Sans and Mr Karam discussed 2p by mid year at the GM apparently, so that would be over £30m. Doesn't look to unreasonable from what we've been hearing out these two wells. However if Tobias turns out to be a great discovery with most of its oil remaining then it'll barely touch the sides imo. But lets see, we've some really positive initial results from these two wells. Lets see what they flow.

Ultimately I could see this one go £100m+ in the next few years. I'd tend to stay away from the crazy caps, but look at some companies in the past, UKOG, SOU, HUR and PANR were all valued at circa £1bn so things can get carried away at times. I'm still planning to hold for 3-5 years and mid cap, that's the view I came in with and that's what I'm sticking with currently. Lets see what size Tobias turns out to be as a good starting point. If we get a commercial lithium discovery at Canegrass then bonus!

Regards,

Ed.

Snod,

I bloody hope not! I want to see CRCL develop Tobias/Galinda and beyond. There's likely more oil on our blocks, potentially much more, many here would like to see CRCL go after that. Perhaps after that the bigger fish could arrive, but hopefully not for some time yet.

Regards,

Ed.

Hi DC,

I try to limit my time online as much as possible, I post less these days than I used to. So I'd rather not join any more apps or sites. But those that use LSE will see them and I guess Luke will share them over there anyway.

With the volume shooting up and the price too, seems this one won't remain a secret for too much longer. :)

Regards,

Ed.

DC,

Yeah when you take off the recent sale value of Wowo gap and Mambare from our market cap and then add in the Mt Weld and Canegrass assets there's practically nothing in for the Angolan assets. Lets see how long that anomaly lasts! :) Hopefully we'll see a more realistic value throughout 2024. Well funded and superb assets beyond Tobias and Galinda. Establishing cash flow is key to cracking on with the rest of these licences and the vast unexplored structures. Something like 1 pre-salt well drilled on each of these large blocks. 297mmbbls of net prospective to chase too.

Regards,

Ed.

Nige,

Sonangol come across as a well oiled machine, quite literally! So yes I'd imagine they're getting the well prepared for testing right now, running production liner, getting ready for perforation over the coming days. I'd expect the testing programme to go as smoothly as the drilling of the two wells. Its the sate oil company and they all all the data from the field, historic and current. Looking forward to the results.

Luke,

No worries post whatever you like wherever you like.

Layla,

Read back over all of the previous releases about Tobias, highly naturally fractured gets mentioned quite a bit. Also porosity ranges from 4-14% over the field. Clearly TO-4 had very high porosity and permeability given the astonishing flow rate mentioned today.

Also guys and gals look at the volume today, seems we're back on a few radars again. 55m and counting, we're getting there at last. Be interesting to see what volume we get on the flow rates.

Regards,

Ed.

DC,

That's only part of it though, that's what they've proven so far, oil over the 1.3-1.4km from these new modern wells. But don't forget that there were 7 other producers and an injector into this structure. If this area has recharged in this large anticline, what's stopping the rest of it? Its a 3400 acre field, about 13.3 sq kms, its frigging big, if pressurised and recharged. Pretty damn significant to the possible oil remaining, it may still be connected to the source and replacing any water that was there. They'll know on further wells, plus the testing, if the two new wells both produce dry oil.

Regards,

Ed.

JW,

I think the big media push will come after both wells are tested and firm plans in place for the EPS. Let the media know that this new oil and gas company is about to become a producer, early revenues etc. Then perhaps news of more development wells, if Tobias has recharged, those horizontals are only a matter of time imo.

Regards,

Ed.

That depends on how many pressure build up tests they do, if they test the wells in stages, they did mention that there are two separate compartments. So as a rough guess I'd imagine that it'll be 1-2 weeks testing per well. If we get rates even close to TO-4 those rates may be limited by the test equipment. That is a stunning rate for any well onshore in a carbonate reservoir. Both wells have extensive oil columns, close to 300ft in TO-13, if they are a thorough with the testing as they were with the drilling it'll take a while. but a damn exciting wait, especially now that they've given the result form TO-14, close to TO-4 and what looks like pressurized, oil charged mobile oil. That one well could be a game changer. Lets wait and see, locked and loaded waiting for the next RNS.

Regards,

Ed.

What a result! Top of my expectations that result. I did mention some months ago that the reservoir which has been shut-in could have potentially re-charge. That is what I was hoping for, like a 30 year pressure build up test! Look at the result. The TO-4 well produced a staggering flow rate from just 8m of perforations! It then watered out, well this location of RO-14 certainly hasn't watered out!

"Full Binga reservoir section (80m) encountered in the well with identical zones encountered as in previous TO-13 well and oil shows throughout" We now know that gets thicker at 120m downdip to 948m (also oil shows throughout) , so top of the structure down to as far as they've drilled over 1km away oil prone and connnected. So points to significant hydrocarbons remaining.

"At a macro level, we've confirmed that the same formations are contiguous between both wells, and data indicate that these zones contain movable oil throughout the reservoir. Given the historically wide well spacing of the field, there appears to remain substantial areas both undrained and now potentially re-charged since the original field was shuttered."

This is a huge statement, the reservoir looks to have recharged with oil and pressure in this very large field with wide well spacing, if they conclusively prove that through the production test its like jitting the jackpot and they'll need to rework what they think the remaining contingent is.

"Initial pressure readings support Corcel's predrill thesis that the reservoir has returned to its original pressure levels through active recharge of the system." So its not just oil shows and mobile oil, its under pressure too and has good reservoir porosity for a limestone All key components to help flow.

"The TO-14 well found no presence of water during drilling, despite the fact that the offset TO-4 well had been reported to have watered out by the end of its production life, further indicating that the field has fully re-equilibrated." No woter therefore just dry oil, implications not only for flow but also for oil in place and reserves, no fracture space filled with that naughty brine.

I can't wait to see the flow rates, this couldn't be going better so far.

Regards,

Ed.

Good afternoon Nige,

Yeah he's done a cracking job in 2023 and 2024 is likely to be better still! Given the news that's pending should be an exciting start to 2024. Hopefully within 1-2 weeks of TO-14 TD now.

Regards,

Ed.

Sans,

Thanks again for attending the AGM and reporting back on it and the GM. much appreciated.

Layla,

Some PI's live hundreds of miles away from London, in my case I would have had to book flights and a hotel just to make the AGM, so not really that suitable at this time of year and I'm sure the same for many other shareholders too.

The RNS does make for interesting reading and answers many of the questions like Sans said. We've a full list of the experienced management appointed and their roles. I'm quite happy to see the technical and financial roles filled and more importantly Mr Karam keep the role as exec Chairman and run the show. Great progress he's made so far and I'm looking forward to an explanation of this:

"We look forward to announcing the completion of the final board additions in due course and to announcing further advancements at our operations in Angola."

Further advances to be reported from Angola, lets be having some of that!

Its good to hear others opinions of Mr Karam too, I have the same view that he's already been doing and likely to continue to do wonders for our share price and transformation to producer.

"The Company plans a series of investor events during the course of 2024 offering the chance to engage with the new Board directly."

That is what many of us have been talking about this last few months and its good to see the company is on the ball on that front too. Some internet interviews would go down a treat during 2024 as many shareholders do refer to proactive investors, investor meets company and LSE interviews. They're a great way to get the message out there to more investors. Its a great way to keep shareholders up to date and its usually one of the first things that I search for when looking to buy into a company. Best to get info straight from the horses mouth.

Regards,

Ed.

RL,

I know what you mean! Some people seem to get upset at the slightest thing, must be a generational thing or something. Same to you fella, have a happy Christmas one and all and hopefully a very very prosperous new year!

I notice the AGM votes were another strong show of support. That's a lot of shares voting in favour.

Regards,

Ed.

Except rather than "expect". Its too early in the morning to proof read posts. :)

Regards,

Ed.

Dicko,

I'll assume you are talking about netbacks per bbl as you'll not find many acquisitions of Africa 2P at $10/bbl let alone at $40/bbl. Top end US and Canadian acquisitions would be at best around $20/bbl (and they need to be early stage development rather than mature assets). I've never seen acquisition metrics of oil in the ground anywhere near that even when oil was at $140/bbl. African assets will always get a discount to other regions, expect perhaps Russia/FSU at the moment. Personally I would value African 2P closer to that of South American 2P reserves.

But yes as contingent is upgraded to 2P through production testing and hopefully long term performance they go up in value quite a lot. AET would be a good place to look if you want to know what a BBL of Angolan oil reserves costs.

Regards,

Ed.