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SteveV,

To get the same response and pressure build up that they got back in 2021 they need to do the same thing again. That would have been injecting methane and butane both, not just the NGLs. What they needed to do was made quite clear in the July '23 ops update. Not just recycle methane, inject higher and higher volumes plus NGLs just like last time. The pressure then gradually increases in the field and the oil production increases month on month as the pressure and miscible gas (methane and butane mix) helps to remove the oil. As we were told oil production from the BFU was a function of injected volume. To get to peak production they needed to increase pressure just like 2021 and inject the same volumes of gas and NGLs. Alas that didn't happen when all shareholders needed it to. Did that also kill off the JV, perhaps.

Regards,

Ed.

Well guys and girls,

You're welcome. For clarity I have a chunk of these and its in my interest to read all this stuff too. The links are useful to know what is going on in the region. This style of reward has its risks too, we've yet to see if the company can match its plans in the current presentation. Fingers crossed they can. Also the exploration drilling on KON-16 would be high risk, but hopefully we'll get a chance of success update after the new seismic. According to the presentation the target is 628mmbbls pre-salt lead (page 17), so massive.

Regards,

Ed.

Good morning Luke,

Interesting article for sure, looks like that discovery in Block 21 is about 120-150kms from KON-16 in this prolific basin. We know that source rock and migration is there on KON-16 from the pre-salt well that was drilled (17m of oil shows). The presentation yesterday was also confirmation of how few pre-salt wells are on our blocks. You can see clearly in that article what modern broadband seismic can do. That's a really impressive 3D seismic image.

Seismic sure has moved on from 1996 and that first offshore discovery was made offshore Kwanza, around the same time that Tobias was shut-in. The good thing is that the company is going to shoot more seismic to get a better idea of the targets down there. Again the presentation yesterday showed how loose a grid covers some of our blocks. Only two lines running across Galinda for example. We'll know more about what they're doing in the near term regarding seismic around Galinda etc.

Lots and lots of news to come if we're to see that circa 3000bopd, as mentioned yesterday, by Q4. One of the busiest small caps on AIM. If they hit their targets as set out yesterday, not small cap for very long!

Regards,

Ed.

Nige,

Good point those two tech guys are highly experienced, the type of guys you want in on these scale of developments/targets. Sounds like Mr Collins has identified lots of discoveries in Angola already and Mr Konneh has lots of experience in getting these large engineering projects done.

I agree, no hanging around for sure, lots of big ambition from this presentation and its active timeline; the recent Vimeo introduction video had a similar theme. Seems like the PR is already in motion as we approach the TO-14 test result.

Regards,

Ed.

2026 options at 6.4p is what I meant not "2026 bonds".

Regards,

Ed.

Afternoon Nige,

This one is turning out way bigger than I expected given the production numbers for 2024 and 2025 that they're quoting. I thought they might have gotten there on FFD, not on two or three wells. I thought Mr Karam was tying that in with his 2026 bonds for £100m+ valuation. Seems plans are much bigger and more aggressive than that and we could be looking at peak rates by end of this year. May be one more Tobias well and a Galinda well started this year too. If all goes according to the presentation CRCL would have accumulated significant revenues over 2025 and 2026, with it all kicking off in Q4 this year. I had pictured a much more steady pace to peak flow rates. I'm not thinking if they'll exceed 17500bopd, if they get close to that I would be delighted. It wouldn't take long to get more than our current cap in cash on a 18% net interest of those numbers.

If it all works out the way its set out in the presentation and they make a discovery on KON-16 in 2026 it would be really handy to have those flow stations and pipes to connect to. But if he manages to get there anyone who stays from the early days would have made insane money. But today's presentation is certainly a snapshot into what the company is thinking and planning. If it all works out like that I'll be as much stunned as I would be delighted.

Regards,

Ed.

LseT,

It does still give the unproduced prospective resources as 11.7mmbbls on page 10, I think way back these were first described as contingent resources. Perhaps that involves pressure support and they also have that 7.7mmbbls as based on current resource estimates, Pre-CPR. So imo these numbers are likely to change.

If you look at the scale of development planned, its for three blocks and involves an export line to offshore (mono buoy) as well as different flow stations, a lot of pipeline and tank farm etc. Its quite a large scale development so I reckon gross cost could be $140m and net cost $28m. But the CPR is likely to show the economics and get reserves for RBL. The company will also have those bonds and sale of mining assets so the cash element of that is likely covered, but we'll see. We might also see another well drilled before Q4 as hinted at in the presentation. The quantum of the next bond draw down should give some information on what its for.

If they get even close to 100k bopd from KON-16 believe me they'll need pipelines in place!

Regards,

Ed.

LSET,

Yeah if their exploration targets yield 100,000bopd, most of that slide comes from KON-16 at 31.5% WI so if that's the gross number then that would be 31.5kbopd net to CRCL and easily a mid cap/large cap if they achieve that. Certainly x3 2025 NOI would put them around or above $100m using the numbers in the presentation. Not bad returns on a current £13m cap for sure! That is just Tobias too. We would have to see what level of debt they have, but at least we now know the ambitious targets the management are setting going forward. Tuenza-2 updip from the residual oil could be an interesting well for CRCL for sure.

Regards,

Ed.

Oh forgot to mention they project 100,000bopd from the exploration targets! Gee wizz no wonder there's talk of unicorns etc! :)

Regards,

Ed.

Good morning Luke,

It took me a while to spot the RNS out today as it didn't pop up on ADVFN, still not showing on my monitor there. That is an information packed presentation for sure. Some bits are new to us, like they may be drilling more wells in Tobias between now and Q4 (Tobias appraisal beyond the flow testing). Cash flow by Q4 reads really well and confirmation of the CPR coming this year too, will be good to see what an independent makes of the initial 2P.

Projected gross production in 2024 from circa 16,000bopd, declining to 14000bopd gross in 2025 would be around 2500bopd net to CRCL, production decline rate suggests a reasonable natural decline of about 18%. That's coming pretty near term now for initial production. Oil is currently around $82/bbl, planned opex of $20/bbl leaves very healthy cash flow. IRR coming in at a very healthy 89% at circa $80/bbl. More infill targets on Tobias, had hoped to see some mention of the sidetrack potential in there but that may fall under the EPS design (as they do say may need more wells). Very ambitious production target at circa at what looks like 17300bopd ip rates or 3100bopd net to CRCL. Given the projected opex at just $20/bbl that's stunning cash flow to CRCL. If they achieve these ambitious plans its like going from $0 to about $54m NOI in not much more than a 1 year-18 motnhs! Flow rates from Tobias coming soon! If it happens like that it would be stunning.

I'm guessing the business development activities include the sale of Wowo gap and Mambare. Looks like results from the mining assets early next Q.

Regards,

Ed.

Morning Nige,

I'm good, hope you are too. I September '23 they gave advance notice too of their intention to draw down the second £1m from the facility in Jan. That second draw down didn't happen due to the interest free loan connected to the sale of the Ni assets. So today is just giving an advance notice of the second draw on the facility, no mention of changed terms etc, its still convertible at 0.8p. Well testing costs money, EPS design and installation would cost money too. I'm not overly surprised at this stage that they're tapping the facility to pay for ongoing activities in Angola.

Regards,

Ed.

Good morning Sienna,

Yeah its interesting timing to be looking to tap the facility almost 2 weeks into the testing of TO-14. Fingers crossed we'll get that flow rates announcement soon.

Regards,

Ed.

Ria,

Just a couple of clarifications for you. Both of the wells to be tested are vertical not horizontal. There should only be one flow line per each well to a separator and then a line from the separator to the sales tanks (if commercial).

3.7 sq km is approx 914 acres, 3400 acres is 13.75 sq kms. the field isn't square though its more like 30kms by about 6kms.

They're talking about sidetracks and horizontals for possible future wells, but not just yet.

Regards,

Ed.

RBM,

Very true. Since our Tommy believes the large 2P reserves and the resources at the large discovery (independently verified by RS), infrastructure, injectant is worth so little then they should be prepared to accept 0.045 cents in the dollar for a make whole amount for the outstanding bonds and interest! Better to get something back right Tommy?

I'll keep my shares though.

Regards,

Ed.

It may not seem so mad by year end.

Regards,

Ed.

Nige,

Who knows, it could be TO-14 next or Mambare, or even like you say the Canegrass assays. I agree, as well as being quite a distance from a port in PNG, both those main assets require more drilling imo for resource confirmation and met test work etc. It'll be years to get Wowo gap and Mambare to production. I'm very happy to see them go and be replaced by the Angolan oil assets.

Canegrass could be a different prospect though, if it confirms potential from the chip assays there's potential for surface outcropping pegmatites. Those could be quite cheap and shallow to drill, initially at least. Our neighbours aren't drilling particularly deep. Tobias and Galinda may perhaps help to fund expo on that asset too and our battery metals expert could oversee that and any new additions. Lots and lots of mining potential in Australia for battery metals, another AIM tiddler may have also encountered the largest global discovery of Titanium recently too. So who knows how the unicorn may develop.

Regards,

Ed.

Hi Nige,

I don't think so, they did after all go through the GM process and get shareholder approval for the sale of the Ni assets. Even though we haven't been updated on the Mambare disposal yet, it'll still likely get the chop. What they could be referring to is the lithium assets (Canegrass) or potentially picking up more battery metals licences, REEs also play a part. Lots of small miners out there with battery metal assets and struggle for cash. If Tobias goes to plan who knows where next.

Regards,

Ed.

Luke,

Too right! Thumbs up too to big Dan the video man. Well that's a fascinating watch I must say, they all seem very enthusiastic on what's to come and an interesting time to release this promo video. Clearly keen to promote themselves as an energy company, so the battery metals focus remains along side the oil and gas development and exploration. Board and shareholders aligned is certainly a welcome addition too. A unicorn among the AIM stocks, I like it, succeed where others have failed etc. Exciting times for sure.

Regards,

Ed.

MJ,

All we know so far is the field was developed in the '60s and '70s from 7 producers and a water injector. The peak flow rates were 17500bopd for a total of 29mmbbls recovered. With TO-4 peaking at 12500bopd. That's all that has been released so far. With new modern wells and completion techniques they may be able to get to more of the oil. We've yet to see what new modern vertical wells can achieve let alone sidetracks and horizontals as the company mentions.

Regards,

Ed.

Hi Dan,

Yeah hopefully the flow test results from TO-14 will be worth waiting for, shouldn't be long to find out. As for Mambare I did go back over the past news and it does say 45 from when they formally notify BMA, that may have happened on the 8th or perhaps the following week. Also the 45 days may be working days. I would imagine that we'll hear something more about that in the near term too.

Regards,

Ed.