Member Info for Edgein

Morning Nige,

I sure did, hope you did too. I agree, they'll see what happens after they test TO-13 and take it from there. They could potentially sidetrack TO-14 towards TO-13 or towards the eastern flank, it would be much cheaper than drilling TO-15. But like you say we'll have a definitive conclusion to TO-14 once the return to re-test likely over the summer.

They didn't have to place at a premium, they could have done so at 0.35 or even 0.4p. To raise at such a level suggests that they're still positive on the outcome of these wells. Even Sonangol hasn't given up on TO-14 yet, they must think that more nitrogen stimulation it may still flow at commercial rates. TO-13 was described as the cornerstone well of the EPS when it was first drilled, so lets wee what happens there in the near term.

Regards,

Ed.

Well they were clearly trying a nitrogen clean up of the first well and did get water flow and oil shows. They must still think they can get something from it as they'll return after testing TO-13. Be interesting to see what the flows are like on TO-13 as its a possibly undrained area of the field. Be interesting to see what the results of TO-13 turn out to be and what more they do to TO-14 to get it to flow. They may even return for a sidetrack depending on the results of TO-13, that would still be cheaper than drilling another well close to TO-14.

Interesting to see the raising at a premium too and the company's overall take on Tobias and the rest of the assets, seems they're still buoyant on the outcome with the fund-raise at at 37% premium and the warrants set at 1p per share.

Regards,

Ed.

Bladey,

Very true, they're a large very successful company. No one will know more about the geology of Angola both onshore and offshore than Sonangol and absolutely it continues to be positive that they continue to test the well. Once they are in a position to update they'll do so. Given the drilling results of TO-14 they'll likely do everything at their disposal to get the well fully tested.

Regards,

Ed.

Leew,

It hasn't sailed yet as no offers have been announced yet, I was suggesting that if a price is agreed that the funds could potentially be frozen based on the evidence gathered to date. However if a package did arrive that would allow the restructuring of the company then that would clearly be unwise to do so as that could eventually lead to the full development of the large assets with a potential new partner. That I would imagine would be a long short given the time remaining. But lets see. I was just referring to a straight up cash offer and a potential gross undervaluation of the assets/reserves. To complete on that it would have to go through a legal process etc and that was the timing that I was referring to, so there would be time to act on that yet. As for contacting those big companies, even if many junk mail it, some may not.

Regards,

Ed.

Guys,

Agreed. The only info CRCL are allowed to release is that approved by the operator. That's all they were able to say, did CRCL request an update on testing just to add to the interim results? Perhaps. Since the update has generated more questions than answers they could have just said testing ongoing in the results. Was the Mt Weld update put out to coincide with the Angola update? Again perhaps. We have know for some time that the Mt Weld grades weren't as good as the initial results from Canegrass for example so that update wasn't totally unexpected either. Hopefully Sanangol will approve a more comprehensive update on the completion of TO-14 once testing completes and then they can move over to TO-13.

Regards,

Ed.

Hi Nige,

I'm good hope you are too. Good man, its always nice to get away for a few days. Well without being informed it could be anything really. Could be a well integrity issue, could be a blockage around the perforations shot to date, could be some sort of intervention (acid squeeze or the like) on the part of the well perforated, could be a compartmentalisation of the bottom of the reservoir that they may need to sidetrack to get beyond. Could be any number of issues, but without the information from an RNS its just guesswork. We certainly need a more comprehensive update at some point regarding the flow testing. People had a knee jerk reaction on a sentence in an RNS that didn't give much in the way of details. Flow testing of TO-14 remains ongoing.

Regards,

Ed.

Regards,

Ed.

Kenyan,

They sure were filling orders last week at 0.39p, they may have more at this level, depends on if they are able to hold the price. We'll see if the price responds to buying later, we'll find out in due course whether they'll have willing sellers to fill any orders placed.

Regards,

Ed.

Maidit,

That would be ideal if the CAG and their representatives could put a freeze on any sales proceeds until the case has been heard. As Stas says it won't do any harm for folks to contact companies they think might be interested in developing COPL's large reserves and resources.

Regards,

Ed.

Hi Luke,

That's possible, we may see some ISA loading going on here again over the next 12 months. Would be nice if we got another update on the asset sale process as we await the flow testing results on TO-14.

Regards,

Ed.

Hi Sienna,

Did take some time off over Easter for sure, but otherwise patiently waiting for the flow testing of these two wells and beyond.

Regards,

Ed.

Smkr,

Yeah it looks like the 4m at 0.39p was the last of the cheapuns. Hopefully Sonangol will progress with this engineering solution and get the flow tests for TO-14 completed. As the interim results suggested all still in play at the moment:

"TO-14 currently undergoing flow testing having encountered weather and engineering delays, testing work continues on the well with oil encountered and ultimate commercial prospectivity is yet to be determined."

Regards,

Ed.

In their latest RNS from last Thursday they said:

"We believe that early 2024 finds Corcel on the verge of a material transformation, with the groundwork for these developments having been meticulously laid over the final six months of 2023."

I doubt very much that they were referring to 70bopd, but more likely the scenario of the presentation. I'd imagine that we'll have a better idea of this material transformation as the year progresses.

Regards,

Ed.

Plumbs,

They're still testing TO-14 and the commercial outcome of the well has yet to be determined. They're still expecting this to be a transformational year from the interim statement. So its still in play at TO-14 yet, they have yet to start testing of TO-13 (they described it as a cornerstone well when drill results came out).

"We believe that early 2024 finds Corcel on the verge of a material transformation, with the groundwork for these developments having been meticulously laid over the final six months of 2023."

Not nearly as negative a picture as some are trying to paint, seems the company is still positive on the transformation. This is the current situation:

"TO-14 currently undergoing flow testing having encountered weather and engineering delays, testing work continues on the well with oil encountered and ultimate commercial prospectivity is yet to be determined."

We're still waiting to hear if the well is commercial once fully tested and then they'll move on to test TO-13. Its just some more waiting.

Regards,

Ed.

Breq,

Possibly. This well reached TD, whereas TO-4 only penetrated the top 8m of the Binga. Oil companies test from the bottom up so you could be correct in saying that they've been trying to get the deepest parts of the well to flow first and spent the last number of weeks looking for a solution to that.

Regards,

Ed.

Nige,

Bad timing for sure just before Easter break, but a lot of companies will release updates like this. They may need to do an acid squeeze or something similar on part of the well, but all we can do is guess at present. I'd assume they didn't want to take time to get this engineering work done or folks would have been shouting for an update if we hadn't got one by end of April etc, they do have to keep the market updated etc. More prospective zones in TO-14 yet to be tested, so its a wait and see. Hopefully we'll get more updates on the engineering work over the coming weeks.

You could be correct as these delays have put the timeline out now for sure and the company would be coming under more pressure to update. Maybe the could have held off a little longer, but perhaps that still wouldn't have made a difference. It may take weeks to sort out the issue they've encountered. I'm sure we'll hear in due course.

Regards,

Ed.

Morning Nige,

That's the thing though they haven't completed the test of TO-14 yet let alone testing TO-13. In fact the RNS also reads

"The Operator is following through with the completion program for both wells with continual updates to the program based on new information obtained with progression of the engineering work."

To complete the wells they must think this engineering work ongoing will solve it.

Regards,

Ed.

Morning Sienna,

I even said yesterday with the declining volumes of trading on the run up to Easter I wasn't expecting an update until next Tuesday. Imo they should have held off as the RNS is inconclusive. It suggests they need an engineering solution to test the most productive zones in the well so testing is still ongoing. They haven't said specifically if these engineering solutions include a sidetrack, if it were mechanical failure or a well integrity issue. RNS is very vague, but it sounds as if there are still untested zones down there for whatever reason.

They currently have £9m in undrawn notes and are in the process of selling those Ni assets so still remains cheap in my view currently. The fact that they're still planning on well completion suggests its far from over yet and the market sure does like to overreact at times. They should have really held back under the cover of the operator until they had a clearer update of what is going on.

Regards,

Ed.

Goodness me I wasn't expecting a late RNS, have read it several times today so far. Its a hard one to interpret for sure. They say they're having difficulty flowing TO-14 yet are competing the well not abandoning it? They continue to test the most productive zones, the well testing continues and they haven't started testing TO-13 yet, weather delays etc. They're also progressing the engineering work too. As well they retain their position on the recoverable from the field. Its just a pity they didn't mention how much of the well had been tested and how many of the "productive zones" remain untested. It leaves more questions than answers compared to prebivous releases. But reading it several times suggest everything is still ongoing at both wells.

Regards,

Ed.

Hi guys,

You're welcome. I agree testing has been going on for around six weeks and the last RNS the company described themselves as a production company so its definitely looking positive. Sonangol as the operator sure will want the job done right, so they'll not waste cash just cause they have it. They'll also gather all the data they require for what could be a large project, multiple flow stations, many kms of pipe and even export buoy planned. So they need to get it right from the start, both these wells should provide plenty of data on how the field performs.

That's interesting that CRCL keep reminding folks through social media about what's going on (I'm not on twitter/X). With six weeks of testing you would think they would have a good idea about both these wells. Presentation does suggest that both wells will be produced in parallel so we could get an update on both soon. Agreed too that if things weren't progressing as per presentation they wouldn't keep advertising it. With trading volumes declining on the run up to Easter hopefully we'll get our momentum back again next Tuesday.

Regards,

Ed.

Good morning Nige,

I'm good hope you are too! Yeah looking forward to the Easter break for sure, its always nice to get such a long break from the markets, unfortunately we are currently in the UK wet season it seems so it'll have to be indoor fun rather than outdoor fun. Hopefully we'll see some more spring and summer weather again soon. I hope everyone has a nice Easter break!

Well it all depends on what flow rates they get, one mans disappointment could be another man's gusher! Look at the oil price back in the 60's and 70's compared to where it is now. These wells were commercial back then:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/262858/change-in-opec-crude-oil-prices-since-1960/

So for wells like this to be commercial they'll not need high flow rates at circa $85/bbl. The company recently described themselves as an E&P company and given the recent presentation then that's what I expect them to be. I'm still looking forward to a transformational year and beyond. Given the drilling results by CRCL and approved by the operator Sonangol that's what I'm still expecting. They should see better flow rates through modern completion and logging, but better still would come from horizontal completions so that is always an option as pointed out by CRCL.

2 mile horizontals and 20 plus stage frac are commercial at $85/bbl in the US and Canada etc so they'll have many options open to work on these redevelopments. They'll not need 2 mile horizontals nor frac on this field, I was just using an extreme example of what is commercial at $85/bbl (flow rate dependent of course). We know that the reservoir is highly fractured, we know that there is mobile oil down there which has returned to original pressure, its all in the RNS to date. So long horizontals or frac is like overkill on these wells imo, I'm still expecting them to flow naturally from these vertical wells. If they didn't flow it wouldn't take very long to find out, the recent presentation for 2024 flow rates would look very different and I doubt the company would be describing themselves as an E&P. I can understand that when a JV is planning a potential $140m development for FFD they may want to try a LPT to make sure oil saturation and pressure sustains flow and before committing to an EPS. Seems to me like that is what they're doing. When Sonangol gives the nod CRCL will update. I'm still eagerly awaiting that time, my guess now is likely after Easter.

Regards,

Ed.