Member Info for edgar222

Agreed LGO-Fan. I make it current production in the range of 550-650 as per the last update. Plus 250 from Steeldrum it is 800-900 BOPD and am expecting year end target to be hit.

That's 8p now. It is a buy.

Am also expecting good news on Wednesday on current production. We are over the plateau in the road map graph.

I said 20p because the Farmout gets us to $40m income pa minimum. Minimum.

Apply a P/E of 15 that is $600m mcap. 20 is $800m.

Accept that is dollars. But add in Nyuni and KN1 and other opportunities and dividends etc etc.

Very rough and ready.

Another 2 thoughts fwiw. On timings, if they are waiting for the licence before the EGM circular then the licence is October-ish. On value, this is 20p plus all day long just on production levels under the farmout at the time the free carry ends. Am buying more. GLA

Been saying on twitter so will repeat here.

This is a crazy price and has been since 2p. If you think the Zubs are about to be rejected by the Tz Govt (who they are already working with), the licence wont be extended or the sky is about to fall on our head then maybe you think 1.6p is too high.

But if, like me, you believe we are in a Tz delay cycle and nothing more. That the farmout is going to happen by the end of November and the licences have to be sorted for that to happen. That once that is all done the brakes are off and the Major will get on with C1, the building of the infrastructure to get our gas to marker and all on a free carry to AEX. With multiple drills to come and already 2TCF Pmean GIIP In place. That KN1 is about to be remedied. Then this is a once in a lifetime buying opportunity.

I will be buying next week. Regulars here know the news is coming and it will be thick and fast. Can I just repeat, though. Free carry to market from multiple wells.

If I am wrong I will undertake my review at Christmas like I promised. But I believe all the evidence points the other way.

GLA

And it occurs to me that the Aminex resource history is of under promising and over delivering (believe it or not). I don't have the exact numbers but memory suggests Ntorya turned out to be about 10 times bigger than they thought pre-drill. What if they did the same at C1? ;)

Thanks, Pawn. Just could not track the info through. Am here for 103 in any event

ATB

Ross

You may or may not be right about waterflood timing.

They need to find another 250 bopd from Goudron and Bonasse by December to meet that target.

I think they will. You think they might not. We will see. But if you look at the original roadmap production graphs you will see they anticipated a plateau / dip and an increase in Q4.

Fwiw I think the new presentation is aimed at those who do not like the farmout.

I think it spells out and hammers home the point about Ara spending v remaining Aex free carry. Although I thought I had understood the terms this presentation pleasantly surprised me on that issue.

Size of C1 impressive.

Start of the turn around?

Ross

June is 6 months from the end of year. And although they ramped up end of June they started earlier.

Not that I care about those dates and targets. The bigger picture is what I am interested in.

Thank you GG. I don't recall any either and re-checked.

News tomorrow then?!

Dear Informed and Helpful Bulletin Board (!)

Have been trying to find the Bacton terminal details. My memory is that there is an end date to the period they are reviewing it for acquisition. Can someone help. I think November but cannot find it

TIA

Had 4 company interims to read over the weekend, an unusually high number for me !

AAOG was the shortest. Not a complaint, probably the least to say until Drill news.

I went back and could not find the answer on the AAOG website through RNS announcements, but I may hvae missed it.

Have they annonced production rates from the already worked over TLP 101 and TLP 102 ?

Thanks in advance

Just had a chance to read them properly. The day-job is keeping me busy ATM.

This perma-bull is about as fed up with waiting as he has ever been.

The big take-away for me is the November date for farmout completion. Add to that the obvious fact (but now confirmed in these results) that the licence will have to be resolved for the Farmout to complete. And we have an important news event in November. A company-changing news event.

What I want to see after that is the brakes off and C1 proceeded with. I want the Major getting on with it and planning the production system and infrastructure at the same time.

I will have a serious review of Aminex at Christmas. I am expecting that to be an easy decision as the November news will all be in the right direction. It had better be.

Been telling myself for over 12 years that the geology is why I am here. The numbers remain enormous. C1 remains exciting. All of that is true and remains so. But we need some activity now.

Just had a chance to read them properly.

FWIW I am reading an emphasis on waterflood (see outlook section in particular) and I note Bonasse plans are going to be set out in the October update.

They have stuck to the 1k BOPD target for year end 2018. The average in 1H was 550. They expressly say Steeldrum is important to that target (250 BOPD) which leaves 250 BOPD to find from Goudron and/or waterflood.

LK said before you look at the water being pumped in and try to work out what oil you get out. Water is 1500 per day currently. Remind ourselves of the original roadmap plateau mid-year 2018 and we are through that.

My sense (or is it blind-holder-hope) is that they have done a lot of corporate sorting and the coming news on the amount of oil being produced is going to be good. Very pleased waterflood is not dead. Add in Goudron and then Bonasse optimisation and I believe we are in for an exciting Q4.

Happy to hold. I believe the shares are cheap currently.

Thanks, Drewky. Had seen some of those news items but not all.

Agree with you all but the problem in looking at future numbers is we don't know what dilution there will be. I will be staggered if there is none and do not mind some or even a lot if it gets us to cash generation.

I think that must be what is holding the market back. Am wondering if Hurricane is a comparison. They diluted and self funded for 100s of millions. The share price went down (halved?) and has come back up as they build their Early Production System and production gets closer. I don't expect IOG to go the same route. The costs are less and the Board are proven to be brilliant at innovative funding. But the FID and funding path is the big news and is days away.

I would not mind a dip so I can load more! Very bullish here.

Ooohh. Both please, Drewky.

Drewky,

Would you mind posting your helpful list again please ?

"Edgar I said other than a quick pump and dump !"

2014-March 2017 is quick is it ? You are in the right share here.

Yes Workover. I have. I made 8 bags or thereabouts when I bought at about 0.8p and it went to over 7p.

Not the Company's fault I didn't sell enough. I did sell some. And bought back all the way back down.

This is 12p easy. Though if the Zubs want to offer 10p now to take the lot I would be tempted.