Member Info for edgar222

They are touching 900bopd production on a best case scenario without Djeno flow.

With Djeno flowing 5k bopd it is over £1. IMHO, DYOR. Blah, Blah !

It is worth 28p without the Djeno, IMHO

Malcy tweeted that its difficult to write up the interview as the drill is almost touching the Djeno. At least thats my take. Am mobile so cant paste link. Its on twitter @edgartwo2

Downthepan

I agree. Questions are fine. Abuse is not. Especially with the track record of Jay that I set out. I accept there are some circumstances (fraud for example) that anger is a natural response. But not this.

What the numpties on here do not realise is that Jay came in and put his own hard-earned into the Company at a time when it had serious (potentially fatal) debt and when it was desperate to raise money. He took a lot of the new shares on that big fund raise that allowed progress, ultimately leading to the paying off of the debt and thereby the saving of the Company.

I am not dewy-eyed about this. He is after a profit like the rest of us and I hope he gets it. He deserves it and so do we.

What he then did was take us through N2 with a plan for N3 (now CH1) that saw the 7-bag increase in share price.

All the evidence points to the Tanzanian authorities taking their time over next steps, the GSA, the licence, the drill approvals etc etc.

Said numpties obviously thought there was no political risk in investing in Tanzania. Give me strength.

But what does piss me off is the massive disrespect to Jay B on a daily basis. Are we where we (or he) want to be? No. With patience will he get is there? Discuss all you like but I say yes.

If people don't like the risk profile they should not be here.

Little top up from me. AAOG originally bought as a drillbit punt because I liked the risk profile of the multiple horizons. To my eyes (pre flowrates) the risk is massively reduced because of what they have already hit. I do not say the Djeno is in for free but I am happy at this marketcap with production from Mengo etc s well as 10m owed/licence holding to increase. The market has not factored in this de-risking yet, IMHO. GLA

Shhh

What a load of twaddle. We should have booted the CEO out 2 years ago as he was giving us a 7-odd bag return ?

Filtered

One thing is for sure....the LSE BB can no longer be described as "mostly harmless"....

16p.

Peter

I am now 1.2m having bought more. Not enough and not enough in my ISA but am working on it.

I am as frustrated as everyone else about the hold-ups in the licence. Is it now worse than the GSA ?! Shudder.

But here is why I am sure that the licence situation will be resolved (If I am wrong about that Aminex "owns" nothing and I have lost a deal of money):

1. The Tanzanians want a gas to power industry, badly. They now need it to. The demand is increasing. All the noises from Govt support this view.

2. Aminex really does have a good relationship with the Tz authorities. First in-country, millions invested when no-one else was.

3. The risk is the Tz Govt wants to move quicker (don't laugh) than Aminex has been able to in ratcheting up the industrial size of the project (by which I mean powering the country and exporting power too). If that was a risk then the arrival of a Major on the scene can only help.

4. The Omani/Tz relationship is close.

5. Tz are sorting out their own new regulatory regime, industry and working environment. That takes time.

6. My understanding is that the legal obligations have been met and there is an obligation to grant the licence sought. Tz want to encourage investment and industry and breaching these obligations would have the opposite effect.

I agree that the licence is the starters whistle. Brutal wait for it but I remain of the view it will be worth it. I am going to be very unhappy if CH1 is not ready to spud quickly after the regulatory stuff is out of the way.

Been a funny week. Probably because I have had more time to stare at shares than normal.

AAOG release an amazing RNS confirming the geological model on their (potentially transformative drill) and explaining that they are drilling onwards to the monster target. The shares crash 30%.

CERP update underwhelms me. Waterflood is still wait and see (200k barrels of water pumped in so far). The weather and other factors (which I accept, like integration of businesses) mean the production figures are not what I hoped. I turn on the computer expecting a huge hit on the shares and it has not happened.

So my question is, WTFDIK?!!

I don't want anyone to take me wrong. I added here yesterday and I am staying/accumulating (when I can). Maybe the simple answer is that the CERP share price had already factored in underwhelming numbers so the fall has not been so sharp.

I also read in today's RNS that they are changing the plan to self fund SWP drilling by looking at outside funding. That is ok with me if they really believe SWP is as exciting as they say it is. But it is tacit acceptance that current production is much more problematic than they believed when re-launching as CERP.

GLA,

Decisions

I hope that is the truth. I will be delighted. Money for the Vanji, daily running and to get us to production easily. Also means the Company can defend against any Majors who think they can nick the assets on the cheap.

Sorry got the number wrong with wishful thinking....mine was the 203k....

….that 250k odd purchase is mine. Every little helps....

Despite his aggressive protestations he is not taken seriously by the City.

Does anyone think his way of communicating would get through a single institutional door?

He is aimed at (and very successful at) spooking mug punters.

He is doing the same at IOG at the moment. I should be grateful as its share has crashed too and is currently an amazing buying opportunity but just now I am short of the readies !

What annoys me more about the AAOG rumours is the ridiculous reaction from said mug punters, which fuels the likes of TW as he sees a reaction and feels vindicated. This is particularly annoying in AAOG as the placing is such a non-story. It is obvious they need some cash to tide them over, into the Vanji and to keep the lights on. But this well will be a producer when finished and that is speedy cash flow so a raise should be limited dilution. Mug punters don't seem to understand that is how non cash-flow positive exploration companies work. Not understanding that, you should not be here.

Non-story. Buy.

https://twitter.com/Gorillacramp/status/1082534582606536705

Cristal

Slightly ashamed to say I made the flow rate mistake myself. Really basic schoolboy error given the geology. Was speedily corrected here and on twitter before 8am.

I agree with you. "Around 2 weeks" to Djeno according to the Finncap note (thanks to Alex and others on twitter for pointing me in the right direction). I do not know but they may have re-commenced drilling late last week as the logging operations ended and it s sooner than we think.

Either way I am not selling any either. This story gets better.

Align: "Ref Anglo African O&G #AAOG Note that market cap is still just £33m. Should the company get towards 3000 bopd production at Tilapia in 2019/20 a stock price closer to 40p looks realistic.

Align research : "Company making"

Jub Capital : "26m in the Mengo is significant"