Member Info for edgar222

Tiptop Totally agree. It was you that turned me onto AAOG with your comments about risk-managed drilling. I read up and agreed and bought. Always risk with a drill bit but I totally agree that if you did not like the risk profile with this well then you should never be in this game. Selling has always been a problem for me, though I think I am getting better at it!! Have not fallen in love with a share again like I did (still) have with Aex. But to be fair to me (!) the reason was based on my understanding of assets and geology. What I have learned over years is much more awareness of funding/commercial issues. And again AAOG is a fantastic model. Yes they may need to raise (nature of the beast) but the speedy route to market is where this is really exciting (and something I underestimated as a problem with Aex). Sorry if I have gone off topic. I love the AAOG story. (I still profoundly believe Aex is going to come back strong and soon, btw). Since I am off topic (but will stop soon) can I suggest you have a look at CERP? Also way too cheap with the most incredible management. GLA

I am here for the very long term and most of my holding is in my SIPP. Plan to buy more in ISA. The point is I really dont mind about 2019. But I do think 14p is conservative. Assuming basic Goudron production is ok. Plus integration and tweakings from other assets, more Goudron-like work if u will, then add in a waterflood uplift, my view is 14p could be easily attainable. I happen to have very high hopes for waterflood in the short to medium term but accept I may be very wrong here. To me, that is all basic cash generation towards the bigger prizes in the SWP but could easily surpass 14p. An example. Leo said look at the water we are pumping in now and hope that is oil coming out in 6 months. If waterflood was now producing 1k bopd what share price now at approx 1900 bops production? As I day Leo Koot has the time to do this right in my eyes but I remain very bullish, with no particular timescale declared. What I do think is that CERP is far too cheap right now and if I can find some profits from somewhere this Co gets first call. GLA

Tiptop

I share your excitement. Then I get a bit worried about how to manage my investment here. But I suspect I will just do what I always do. ie. tuck away and hold the winning tickets past Djeno. Have come a cropper sometimes by not taking profit (Aminex, eg, but I still think that will come good and better than 2017) but on the whole you have to run your winners. And AAOG looks like a winner to me.

Good luck to you and all holders.

https://www.malcysblog.com/2019/01/oil-price-jadestone-iog-and-finally/

If you believe the company and today's RNS (I do) then this is a buying opportunity.

The cash generating profit-story remains the same. The risk remains the same (how to fund it).

I believe there is market manipulation going on here and hope the authorities are watching.

I have no information beyond what I can see on BBs and Twitter.

But from what I can see the problem is a regulatory one with LOG being over exposed to debt. They have 2 main company loans and 1 is IOG. The problem for IOG may be if LOG are told to get some money in, that all goes up in smoke. However, surely any administrator/regulator type will see that the best way to do that is to build the IOG Hub and take the cash from that very profitable business? Maybe that is naïve of me.

Not great news but am not in a panic. The underlying profitability of the IOG plan has not changed.

I too am convinced that the early results from the first horizons and the Mengo will be good. I don't know and am waiting for the wireline news like everyone else but that is the basis that I am holding.

I would go so far as to say that the awaited results will be better than expected, based on the extra horizons and the thicker reservoir sections found. Again, I don't know.

The interesting dilemma is this. Do I de-risk for the Djeno or hold all on the basis that the geological model has been incredibly accurate to date?

I am leaning towards holding all (if not accumulating). The Mengo and others have underwritten the Djeno which is now a free ride (if my expectaions on unknown results are right). The downside risk is therefore limited. The upside with the Djeno is well known and is multi-bags.

Not the first time we have all had this dilemma which can be characterised as greed v risk management. Still an interesting one. Keen to her others views.

GLA

Crusty

No apologies needed

Thanks Drewky and I understand that it may be water and people have talked about water. All I was saying is that is not what they announced today.

Tanzania, I am flattered. I have actually given up on BBs in the main, this one in particular. When the market is going South and there is no news the crap that gets posted is just repetitive junk. Have been advising Drewky to filter and give up the fight as it will make him happier !

Am still all in here and am still waiting. I really liked the circular, the business-like detail and the plans. Read to me as though they mean business. Anyone wanting to research what Aminex is about should read that document.

Crusty

It does not say water. It says fluid.

Jean Baptiste just tweeted "22m only left"

Tiptop

FWIW I agree. Partly because it would explain the recent share action too.

That made me laugh, Wryape!

Can I again suggest the filter button?!

Drewky

That TD by end of december is target depth not target zones. End of drill. Zones earlier than that.

But also, TD is possibly ambiguous as there is a decision to make about whether to go for a 4th zone or not.

Hawkspear,

That is moronic. But I guess if you are one of those Thick Fundamentalist Leavers you see everything through that prism.

Totally agree. An expensive sideshow is ending.

Intersecting first zone Monday.

Not expecting news before Tuesday and I will be happy if it is any time next week with the Govt approval of announcements needed

I cannot see how any Company could agree to Farm into a block while the licence has lapsed (by which I mean ended awaiting renewal with a legal obligation on the authority to renew as all obligations have been met).

Until it is renewed there is nothing to Farm into.

The ball is very much in the Tz ministry's Court.

Am hoping that full planning by the Companies has been going on nonetheless. Concurrent not sequential.

Thanks for all the replies.

Like others there is no magic in the timing for me. These are tucked away in the SIPP and I will build the holding at these levels while I can. By xmas, 6 months, 18 months, 2 years dosent matter to me. But in 2 years we will have drilled SWP and have waterflood up and running. 25p will be in the rear view mirror IMHO.

Thoughts on Waterflood.

Waterflood has long been a hope of mine for LGO / CERP. Back in the days of only having Goudron and drill-raise-drill-raise it seemed to be the answer.

Then this management came in and Goudron is no longer the only asset and may not even be the most important asset.

This management's background at Tata has involved waterflood. That business (that they grew exponentially) was "like a big washing machine". Leo and Stewart are both steeped in the technicalities and the financials of waterflood.

Then about a year ago they started with CERP. And nothing happened with GY670. They targeted that because as we all know it had the biggest initial flow-rates. It all went quiet and I scoured the RNSs for waterflood snippets, still daring to dream.

In that quiet phase we had Leo Koot say that on waterflood you judge him by the barrels of water going in because those will be barrels of oil coming out in 6 months time. The next scheme has been up and running since late June 2018. They have pumped 79k barrels in at 1500 bwpd. They have established connectivity and building reservoir pressure and it seems to be working. As at the last investors meeting video and previous update announcement Leo Koot made clear they have had no oil out yet while the water does its work in the reservoirs.

But if we add 6 months to the end of June and we look at bwpd are we looking at 1500 bopd by the end of December just from waterflood in Goudron? Lets take all that with a pinch of salt and say those numbers are far too optimistic. Lets say they only achieve 500bopd. Only. You see my point?

I still believe in this team and waterflood is all over their CV. Could be a company changer before we get to the SWP plan.